Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas

Prediction Changed
2022-05-31 12:25:00

Constituency Profile



Bennink, Fred

Chandra, Syam

Sandill, Shubha

Shaw, Sandy

Thiessen, Frank

Weiss, Lee

Sandy Shaw

Population (2016):

Population (2011):109535

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

20,760 43.21%
12,383 25.78%
11,941 24.86%
2,368 4.93%
OTHERS 588 1.22%
Total Transposed 48,040
      Component Riding(s)

(66.22% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Hamilton Centre
(22.28% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Hamilton Mountain
(11.50% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Filomena Tassi **
Bert Laranjo
Yousaf Malik
Victoria Galea
Daniel Ricottone
Spencer Rocchi

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Filomena Tassi
Vincent Samuel
Alex Johnstone
Peter Ormond


27/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Federally this is a Liberal riding, it used to be a Liberal area provincially as well before going NDP in 2018. I have Sandy Shaw keeping the seat orange in 2022.
26/05/2022 concerned citizen
The Libs got slaughtered last election in this riding. Unfortuantely many people have forgiven them and have taken them out of the penalty box. Many of the Lib votes that went to the NDP will now go back to the Libs, splitting the vote and the PC's should squeak in.
23/05/2022 jeff316
Sometimes all you need is one result to switch a riding. That's because it unearths a latent voter bed that had been waiting for one party to be competitive before throwing votes their way. The NDP may be well down in the polls, but Sandy Shaw should survive. There just aren't enough PC and Liberal pockets to overwhelm her 40%+ share. In a riding like this, Ford populism and vote buying doesn't resonate as well as elsewhere. Natural Liberal voters are in decline. Save for Westdale, It's not hoity-toity enough to have the Greens siphon off enough votes to really tip the riding. Of course, her margins will be tight, but Shaw will likely sneak it in.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
NDP candidate Sandy Shaw was something of a surprise winner in 2018, benefiting from the popularity of her party leader right next door. Now, I wouldn't totally count the NDP (or Liberals) out, but at this point I think PC candidate Fred Bennik has the best shot of winning this in a close three-way race.
25/04/22 Joseph P
I agree with my earlier post in August that this is a "natural Liberal seat" and with polls how they are now with Liberals around 30 and NDP around 20 I think this is among the seats that flips back from the 2018 orange wave. I agree with the April 14 post from A.S. that this riding has the well-off suburbia vibe rather than the other Hamilton ridings which feel more blue collar working class.
With that said, this riding is not a lock for the Liberals and if Del Duca proves unpopular in the coming weeks then certainly this riding will be among the first to fall back into the orange column but I would need to see the orange and red polling trend lines cross before being comfortable calling this seat for the NDP. As for the PC's, they have a shot but I think they are clearly a 3rd favourite here. Ben Levitt's 31% in 2018 is probably close to Ford's ceiling in a riding like this. It would be messy circumstances to see a total like that get the PC's over the finish line.
23/04/22 Colin O'Neal
I think the PCs surprise in HWAD with a NDP-Liberal vote split.
14/04/22 A.S.
It took the '18 Andrea wave to validate the idea of NDP electability even here, making it 4-for-4 among the inner Hamilton ridings; and with that foot in the door, it's looking oddly resilient in a Waterloo or London West "Big Tent Dipper" way (and without the benefit of a byelection to trigger that tendency). And funnily enough, it's looking less vulnerable than Hamilton East-Stoney Creek--and not just because of the latter's Paul Miller factor; it's because the Conservative base just isn't Ford Nation enough (it's the McMaster riding, after all--though it's also the Redeemer U riding, so the Tories aren't *totally* absent hope), and the Libs are too well-positioned to recoup past losses and fill that Ford-Nation-absent opposition vacuum. With Sandy Shaw firmly in place, the opposition's likelier to cancel one another out; HWAD is as Romney/Clinton as HESC is Obama/Trump. Which may be in part why the NDP *rose* here in '21 while falling in HESC, even if it's still their weakest inner-Hamilton riding federally...
24/03/22 R.O.
Sandy Shaw was first elected here in 2018 , prior to that election riding didn?€™t exist under these boundaries but was mostly part of the old Ancaster Dundas Flamborough Westdale riding . this riding doesn?€™t have the rural area and gained voters in Hamilton. Its rate beside Horwaths downtown Hamilton riding so an ndp hold would be possible . although liberal and pc parties are still competitive in this riding but neither have high profile candidates this year. Fred Bennick new pc candidate and Shubha Sandill liberal candidate.
06/08/21 Joseph P
Sandy Shaw is an interesting incumbent. Like a lot of rookie NDP MPPs she really wasn't supposed to win in 2018. Her team has put a lot of effort into billboard and bus stop ads over the last 3 years trying to raise her local profile and name awareness. Though I'm not sure if it will be enough to stop the tide of the general OLP comeback in the polls. PC's could also run up the middle in this riding, the vote taking place outside of McMaster season means some left leaning student renters who might normally choose to vote in this riding won't be here. At this point in time I can see any of the big 3 parties winning here. Really just need to see more polling and trends to come up with a confident guess. If I had to guess right now I would probably say Liberal just because this riding feels like a natural Liberal seat to me based on federal results and the previous 18 year reign of Ted McMeekin.
26/06/21 Hammer
This will be interesting. I lived in Dundas for over 20 years, before moving to downtown Hamilton. In those years, Dundas generally went with the idea they couldn't vote NDP because the other parts of riding (at the time Flamborough, Ancaster, etc) wouldn't so they stuck with the Liberals. With an NDP incumbent and more Hamilton voters, its become far more NDP friendly. The Conservative ceiling is 30% and thus it will be between the Liberals and NDP; incumbency and more Hamilton voters give the edge to the NDP.
04/06/21 Chris N
This will be an exciting race. I wasn't convinced the NDP would pick this up in 2018, as I felt Ancaster and Dundas were too ?toney? for the NDP. However, the province-wide collapse of the Liberal Party and a messy PC nomination contest that made provincial headlines worked in the NDP's favour. Incumbent Sandy Shaw is a solid constituency MPP and has a high profile role in her caucus as the finance critic. However, I anticipate that both the Liberals and PCs see this as the most likely pick up in Hamilton in 2022. Will be a race to watch.

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