Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-05-02 11:27:00

Constituency Profile



Babitch, Tatiana

Di Mascolo, Michael

Guidolin, Ren

Killips, Neil

Lecce, Stephen

Sanchez, Samantha

Vivona, Gillian

Stephen Lecce

Population (2016):

Population (2011):109235

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

17,618 51.31%
11,084 32.28%
3,986 11.61%
1,022 2.98%
OTHERS 627 1.83%
Total Transposed 34,337
      Component Riding(s)

(82.96% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Oak Ridges-Markham
(17.04% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Deb Schulte **
Anna Roberts
Emilio Bernardo-Ciddio
Ann Raney
Anton Strgacic

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Deb Schulte
Konstantin Toubis
Natalie Rizzo
Ann Raney


01/06/2022 prog15
It is perhaps unsurprising that the forces of progressivist repression have decided to smear PC in this riding (on the lines that appeal to woke mentality of progressivist control academic types) as Lecce is an academic (and one of the more reasonable and freedom-loving ones from those who managed to teach in something misnamed as Political Science). Equally important, education minister of PC is never liked by powerful teachers' unions as bastions of woke politics and hence is always a target (remember John Snobelen of Mike Harris years, when the PCs were indeed at least fiscally conservative and responsible?) With that, Lecce is one of the most competent ministers who earned respect for not following woke politics or kneeling to never-to-be-content educationist establishment forces of radical noise. His base is parents understanding he is better than the Critical Race Theory and sex misorientation-pushing forces of the left, even if the progressivist dictatorship will not allow him to act freely. Nor was it easy for the left to scare people with a minister from such a strongly spending and centrist government the way they could with Snobelen. And although PC support in 905 always feels 'conditional' (as others note on this site) and voters are much more for the party than a candidate (unlike in Southwestern Ontario in some cases), personality of the minister also helps, and left opposition is too scary to trust. The scare of left indoctrination curriculum is too strong, and the COVID agenda is not even pushed up too much by the left rhetoric as the left emerges as clearly more repressive (in imposing discrimination based on not-quite vaccines, for instance). Lecce as a politician can easily sell himself as centrist, and with no importance of right parties here and a divided opposition (Libs most likely on top of NDP in 905 area, but not certainly so due to a poor campaign and memories of Kathleen Wynne mismanagement lingering here), appreciative middle-class constituency in this blissfully non-University riding is strong enough to bring Lecce one of the strongest results for PCs in 905, against hopes by some to the contrary.
27/05/2022 R.O.
Riding is mentioned in a citynews article where forum polled some key ridings there numbers for King Vaughan are 46 Stephen Lecce pc to 32 Gillian Vivona liberal. so closer than last time but still a pc hold. https://toronto.citynews.ca/2022/05/26/ontario-election-2022-key-ridings-to-watch/
27/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Lecce has come under a bit of fire during his time as education minister but that won't matter when it comes to his re-election chances. Easy PC hold.
24/05/2022 seasaw
Considering what’s going on right now, as the campaign is drawing to a close, it seems like the PC’s are going to win another term. This riding, being one of those bellwether 905 tidings, coupled with a strong candidate like Steven Lecce, will probably end up in the blue column. The so called controversy about what Lecce did as a frat boy, will probably have no impact. Remember, we have a PM who did something just as bad, if not worse and not as a frat boy, as an educator.
11/05/2022 AGP
This riding just became closer. While Lecce is a high profile minister, the Liberals and NDP are going to beat the drum on his frat boy leader, “slave auction” days. The riding has been pretty Liberal in the past. It’ll depend on how embarrassed the residents of King-Vaughan are by these latest revelations.
See: https://pressprogress.ca/ontario-education-minister-stephen-lecce-participated-in-slave-auction-during-time-as-frat-house-leader/
27/04/22 LeftCoast
Incumbent Education Minister Stephen Lecce will likely hold on here, despite the Liberal leader running next door.
06/04/22 R.O.
Stephen Lecce was first elected in 2018 also the first year this riding existed. He has increased his profile since then and served in cabinet as education minister. Which in Ontario provincial politics makes you a target. New liberal candidate is Gillian Vivona and unclear who ndp will run but generally not an ndp area.
05/04/22 A.S.
A Lecce vs Schulte race would have been a high-profile one for the ages; unfortunately, it wasn't to be; but even w/a lower-profile candidate don't think the Libs won't try to make the most of a cabinet-decapitation opportunity in territory Del Duca once largely represented provincially. In the end, this area still feels only *conditionally* conservative--though Schulte's federal defeat might have owed a fair bit to growth in areas which aren't Lib-friendly (Kleinburg, Nobleton, the Bathurst "Jewish belt", etc). And if there's another big Covid catastrophe in the schools, who better to let out one's electoral rage to but Mr. Education Minister...
05/04/22 LFCOttawa
Easy PCPO call here. It's not like every ETFO member lives in King-Vaughan after all.
02/04/22 AD
Yeah, no way is this slipping out of PC hands this election. Lecce may have issues with his general issue but this riding is likely to give him a majority again for many reasons. Demographics support it as well as that level of momentum from the last election. Hell, if anything, Lecce will benefit from increased name recognition.
We as a prediction community are usually cautious in the face of comparing provincial and federal elections but at a certain point, an area is just conservative no matter what the situation.
30/03/22 Finn
While Stephen Leece may not be too popular with teachers, he certainly is with the general public in King-Vaughan. His high profile cabinet position and name recognition will most likely lead to his re-election. Not to mention this was the only conservative gain federally in the entire GTA.
09/03/22 KXS
Much has changed since my last prediction. This was the only seat the federal Liberals lost in the GTA.
With three months left to the election, I feel the PCs should be able to hold this even if they lose power after the election. Sure it will be closer this time around, but I don't think the Liberals will get the turnout they need with a weak candidate like Gillian Vivona.
07/03/22 ca
Many simply do not appreciate the level of ground game outreach Stephen Lecce has done throughout his first term as an MPP, combined with his high-profile post as Education Minister. Many cultural groups within this riding support him. The only opposition comes from teachers. Teachers rarely vote Conservative. He may not be popular with many teacher unions and downtown activists south of Bloor St. but his opponent is an unknown high-school teacher. This riding flipped blue federally in an election lost by the Conservatives, and against a sitting cabinet minister. Lecce will hang on very easily. He's demonstrated his ability to win big.
08/10/21 Dr Bear
I wonder if recently defeated MP and former cabinet minister Deb Schulte will offer as the LPO candidate. If she did, it would make this race interesting.
08/10/21 Dr Bear
I wonder if recently defeated MP and former cabinet minister Deb Schulte will offer as the LPO candidate. If she did, it would make this race interesting.
03/06/21 KXS
This one will be interesting to watch. A toss-up between the PCs and Liberals.
Lecce won by a significant margin in the last election and has connected well with Italian seniors.
Teachers unions are organizing to defeat him. Lecce himself is worried about this and wants to move portfolios.
The Liberal leader being from Vaughan and representing a part of this riding in the past should be an asset for the party.

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