Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Kingston and the Islands

Prediction Changed
2022-05-06 23:08:00

Constituency Profile



Beckwith, Shalea

Bennett, Gary

Claus Johnson, Laurel

Galloway, Shelley Joanne

Holland, Mary Rita

Hsu, Ted

Skyvington, Stephen

Typhair, Zachary

Vaillancourt, Sebastian

Ian Arthur

Population (2016):

Population (2011):116996

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

19,698 42.06%
9,744 20.80%
13,781 29.42%
3,388 7.23%
OTHERS 224 0.48%
Total Transposed 46,836
      Component Riding(s)

Kingston and the Islands
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Mark Gerretsen **
Barrington Walker
Ruslan Yakoviychuk
Candice Christmas
Andy Brooke

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Mark Gerretsen
Andy Brooke
Daniel Beals **
Nathan Townend
Luke McAllister


31/05/2022 Chris N
I'm changing my prediction from 2021 from "Too Close to Call" to Liberal. The regional polling would suggest that the Liberals are in the drivers seat in this race.
29/05/2022 Marco Ricci
I agree with Kingstonguy that this could still be a close riding. Ted Hsu was by all accounts a well-respected and liked Federal MP for this riding and his candidacy improves Liberal prospects of winning this riding back from the NDP. Hsu was able to win this riding during the Ignatieff disaster of 2011. However, he was only MP for one-term and so he may not be as well-known to newer voters in the riding. But given that the NDP has no incumbent of its own, this could give Hsu an edge.
27/05/2022 Tony Ducey
I think the race in Ontario is for official opposition now and not government. A seat like Kingston and the Islands will play a big role in determining official opposition. Ted Hsu, the parliamentarian of the year in 2013, will win the seat provincially in 2022 after winning it in 2011 federally.
26/05/2022 MK
It could be close between Hsu and Holland, but I've seen enough to confirm what others are saying about Hsu having the edge. He was an MP that people remember positively, and while I'd argue the riding continues to grow more progressive, the general momentum favours OLP over NDP.
People for one reason or another did not like Wynne very much, and Ian Arthur's win reflected that Kingston-wide & province-wide sentiment. That protest is not at play here this time.
26/05/2022 Kingstonguy
I think this will be a nail biter between the NDP and OLP. On the one hand, it's traditionally a Liberal riding, on the other, the OLP has been polling poorly in Eastern Ontario. There's a ton of signs from each. I'm guessing it'll be within 4%.
23/05/2022 jeff316
Does the NDP just stink at choosing candidates? Are candidates really unknowledgable about what it is to be an MPP? Or is something wrong in the NDP caucus? Because Arthurs opting out, like Berns-McGowan in the Beaches, just left his party in a major hole. Ouch. Oh Mary Rita, you missed your chance. Had she run for the NDP in 2018, I'd place my bet firmly with the NDP keeping this seat. But Ted Hsu, well-respected for acknowledging that elected politics just was too hard on his family, is back in to cash-in on that half-earned cache. And he will. (Psst-don't tell Ted that Queen's Park isn't just farther away than Ottawa, but with fewer seats, smaller caucuses, and more real, bread-and-butter issues, is also much more stressful and taxing.)
18/05/2022 R.O.
Whats interesting about this election is the fight to be leader of the opposition , its still not really clear what opposition party is favoured by those on the left. So a riding like Kingston which is a race between the ndp and liberals is tough to call. The pcs did get 26 % here last time so Gary Bennett likely to do that well again. Del Duca and Horwath have both made campaign stops in the riding , no sign of Ford or the green leader. Ted Hsu and Mary Rita Holland have both ran here before so there both well known candidates locally. The last time the liberals in opposition they won this riding by a huge margin in 99 but back then ndp were polling very low and non factor. This election much different as the ndp support more stable.
13/05/2022 Jeremus von Stroheim
I don't think we can call this for the Liberals yet. The NDP seems to be pouring significant resources here(Jagmeet Singh, Peter Julian, and Charlie Angus have all visited). While they wouldn't be doing this if they were safe in the riding, I think we can probably conclude that it is at least competitive,
06/05/2022 SarahMitts
Another very interesting riding to watch on election night. The Liberals have nominated one of their better candidates in Ted Hsu, being a former federal Liberal MP for Kingston and the Islands. A summer election should in theory siphon away votes from the NDP (Queen's University students are mostly out of town). Kingston and the Islands has always been an interesting riding in that the professional middle class has grown and displaced the some of the working class by proportion of population. This could be a good bellwether riding if votes are counted quicker than other ridings and could be a sign of whether or not the Liberals will have a good night in the rest of Ontario or if the NDP will manager to hold seats they require to have a second place finish in seat count.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
Mary Rita Holland is a strong candidate for the NDP after incumbent MPP Ian Arthur retired. Despite this, I believe former MP Ted Hsu will easily win this seat for the Liberals.
17/04/22 A.S.
As formidable as Hsu might seem (particularly compared to his single-term predecessor Sophie Kiwala), let's not jump to conclusions about the NDP as a dead-duck force--Holland is as good as it gets for the party around these parts, and judging from her previous provincial runs she might have fared even better than Ian Arthur had she been the one running in '18. Meanwhile, Gary Bennett, who probably *was* technically the "strongest" standard-bearer in '18 but who finished 3rd anyway because he was running for the wrong party under the wrong leader in the wrong riding, is running again, and more removed from his mayoral tenure now than he was then. So if we're talking about a trio of "stars", he's the most provincially staledated...
14/03/22 R.O.
The ridings current mpp Ian Arthur who got elected for the ndp , first time they had won Kingston since 1990 isnt running again. The new ndp candidate is Mary Rita Holland who had been the ndp candidate in 2011-14 and came in second. She Is also a city councillor in Kingston . the pc candidate is Gary Bennett who ran here in 2018 and had also been mayor of Kingston during the 90s. as mentioned Ted Hsu is the liberal candidate he had been elected mp in 2011 but only served 1 term. Still has the feel of a similar 3 way race as last time.
Since Ted Hsu is running provincially, I see the liberals taking back this seat because he is well liked by some of the academics, Healthcare professionals in Kingston. Plus, he fits in with the arts & science world in Kingston . Even some business owners like him.
06/01/22 Jeremus von Stroheim
I believe the incumbent saw the polling not looking very good for himself in this traditional very Liberal riding, which made him decide not to run again. Pretty hard to see it anything but red after the election.
28/12/21 seasaw
Ian Arthur isn?€™t running again. He probably knows with Ted Hsu running for the Liberals, he wouldn?€™t stand a chance. Even if the Liberals finish with the same number of seats as the last time, this would be one riding that they?€™ll win.
23/12/21 KXS
Incumbent NDP MPP Ian Arthur is not running again, but the NDP did have a strong second place showing here federally.
The Liberals are likely to pick it up under the current political climate, but I don't think it will be a cake walk. Ted Hsu may have been popular among political wonks, but he was a one term backbench MP from 2011-2015 when they were the third party.
05/08/21 KingstonLocal
MPP Ian Arthur will face a much stronger challenger in this election as former MP Ted Hsu returns to politics. The anti-Wynne wind that filled the sails of so many NDPs has blown away, and Arthur does not appear to have the personal brand of Hsu. It will be interesting to see how Ryan Boehme (PC) performs relative to Gary Bennett. My sense is that Bennett still has better name recognition, perhaps because Boehme?€™s acclamation in a busy 2018 municipal election left him without much attention.
10/06/21 David
With the disaster that was 2018 for the Liberals, they still managed to finish second in what was a three-way race in this riding.
Ted Hsu, the former MP for this riding is the Liberal's nominated candidate. Hsu was incredibly well liked during his time as MP and would have been easily re-elected in 2015 if he decided to run again.
His popularity alone should make the Liberals favourites to win here.
12/05/21 Chris N
The NDP won this riding in 2018 for the first time since 1990. This has historically been a Liberals stronghold, both provincially and federally. The Liberals nominated former Liberal MP Ted Hsu, who I anticipate will be a strong contender to win the riding back for the Liberals next year.

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