Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Kitchener Centre

Prediction Changed
2022-05-27 18:39:00

Constituency Profile



Beimers, Peter

Lindo, Laura Mae

Mak, Wayne

Schmidt, Jim

Steiss, Kelly

Laura Mae Lindo

Population (2016):

Population (2011):102433

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

16,078 40.45%
10,018 25.20%
10,648 26.79%
2,493 6.27%
OTHERS 510 1.28%
Total Transposed 39,748
      Component Riding(s)

Kitchener Centre
(84.90% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

(15.10% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Raj Saini **
Mike Morrice
Stephen Woodworth
Andrew Moraga
Patrick Bernier
Ellen Papenburg

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Raj Saini
Stephen Woodworth **
Susan Cadell
Nicholas Wendler
Slavko Miladinovic
Julian Ichim


28/05/2022 PY
According to 338canada.com, it's anybody's race with the Greens playing the role of spoiler.
It shouldn't be forgotten that Laura Mae Lindo's uncle is former cabinet minister and speaker Alvin Curling. I certainly understand Lindo's wanting to be her own person, especially when the provincial Liberals were on their way out. It likely won't be amongst the reasons voters in Kitchener Centre might think twice about her, but it's an intriguing one.
At this point, I expect the soft ONDP support that propelled Lindo to the top will dissipate, as voters will either return to the Liberal fold, go to the Greens or even head to the PCs (which would largely be those who no longer believe COVID is an issue).
I can't help thinking that 'Situation Critical' should be the theme song for the parties' respective GOTV efforts on June 2.
28/05/2022 Votetrack
Too soon to make a prediction about this riding. Historically, there is a strong Liberal base, which was pushed down in 2018, to the benefit of the NDP, electorally in third place since the early 1990s. Lindo benefitted from the NDP surge in 2018 and her vote percentage will drop considerably in tandem with the NDP's provincial retreat from 2018. This election has been a sleepwalk, lacking focused energy, and will have lower turnout than in 2018, a change election . However, older voters will dutifully turn out,, to the considerable benefit of Ford and the CPC. NDP down, Liberals up, and the CPC's considerable base of support make this a three way tossup.
27/05/2022 Tony Ducey
After being Liberal since 2003 the riding went NDP in 2018. Lindo seems to have done a good job here so I have the riding staying NDP on June 2.
24/05/2022 AD
I don't think something like critical race theory is going to be on the mind of most voters when there are issues like housing, inflation, healthcare, and so much more on the line. There are an awful lot of NDP signs in the area and I would be surprised if they don't hold this riding.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
An interesting riding! Except strong campaigns from all four parties (The Greens of course picked this one up federally in 2021) but the NDP will throw big money at incumbent Laura Mae Lindo's campaign to hold on.
20/04/22 A.S.
Yeah, I know how KC's kind of urban-cosmopolitan these days, but I wouldn't classify it as the Libs best hope for a SW Ontario pickup--*that'd* be London NC, and due to the candidate they're running more than anything. Sure you can't compare federal with provincial results; but whereas federally you had a compromised candidate, provincially you have a "compromised" (through having the stuffing knocked out of it in '18) Liberal party. Instead, we now have a riding that's run the full spectrum of promiscuous progressivism: from Liberal to NDP to Green. And provincially, a NDP default Kitchener never knew it had (other than 1990) is now in place; and while Lindo's more "urban progressive" than "big tent" a la Catherine Fife, she also doesn't offer much reason for her to be defeated other than generic electoral reversion to old defaults. And that includes the Morrice Dippers/Lindo Greens. (But at least thanks to Lindo & Morrice, we're no longer boringly beating the bellwether drum for Kitchener Centre, though we're still doing so for Peterborough-Kawartha.)
19/04/22 seasaw
While I don’t live in this riding, I work in this riding, and while Laura May Lindo
has worked hard and is a very likeable individual, her staunch support for critical race theory will probably end her political career, Ford isn’t disliked and as a matter of fact many are impressed by the job he’s done, though not impressed enough to vote for him, Greens? They won here federally because of Mike and the fact that the Liberal candidate was who he was, Greens don’t have anyone to match Mike. Which brings us to the Liberals, if they were only to win one seat in Southwestern Ontario, this one will be it. For now, the day Liberal pick up
17/04/22 Max Eccles
I think the NDP and Laura Mae Lindo hold onto Kitchener Centre. Since the high profile Brampton North nomination, where the Black NDP incumbent Kevin Yarde lost to a newcomer, there has been heavy scrutiny on Horwath and the NDP for not protecting one of its five Black MPPs from a rare nomination battle. As a result, I suspect the NDP to be on the defensive during the campaign, which will mean pumping a lot of resources into Kitchener Centre to protect one of their remaining MPPs. Also, as Martin Regg Cohn said in a recent Toronto Star column, the NDP sees Kitchener Centre as a likely hold, and probably their best chance at retaining a Black MPP in Queen's Park.
28/03/22 R.O.
Laura Mae Lindo first elected here in 2018 as the ndp saw a surge of support in urban southern Ontario. Riding also now has a green mp federally as Mike Morrice got elected here when the liberal mp was forced to end his campaign it would of otherwise likely stayed liberal. in 2018 she beat 1 term liberal mpp Daiene Vernile and pc candidate Mary Henien Thorn. New candidates this year seem low profile , Jim Schmidt pc , Kelly Steiss liberal and Wayne Mak green. Doubt it will go green provincially but not clear who has advantage could turn into a 3 way race.
07/11/21 seasaw
Save for a couple of PC and a couple of NDP wins, this has traditionally been a Liberal riding. The Green vote might increase, but their federal victory had a lot more to do with the candidate and the fact that there was no federal Liberal candidate, and also I?€™ve said this a hundred times before and I?€™ll say it a hundred times again if I have to, don?€™t compare federal election results with provincial ones. The Liberals got 21% of the vote the last time and their poor showing was primarily due to Wynne. Now that Wynne is gone, much of the NDP vote will go back to the Liberals. I give the Liberals the advantage here, but Lindo has been a very good MPP and she may be able to win on her record, but I still think this will be a Liberal pick up
24/09/21 Chris N
I'll be curious if the Greens can take some of the momentum they gained from their federal win in Kitchener Centre to the provincial level. The Greens finished a distant fourth in the 2018 election, but they could be more formidable in this riding four years later. Unlike the GPC, the Green Party of Ontario still has a strong brand. Will be one to watch.
06/06/21 Jeremus von Stroheim
Probably the liberals best hope for a pickup in southwestern ontario. Since the conservatives didn't crack 30% last time, they probably aren't in play in this riding anymore, especially without Kitchener South. Also the Green's could become competitive if they win this seat federally. Barring anything abnormal, I'd say this will stay NDP, though a sharp swing to the liberals will flip this seat red.

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