Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-03-31 10:58:00

Constituency Profile



Abdulle, Nasir

Adair, Jason

Harris, Mike

Karahalios, Jim

Meissner, Karen

Perrin Snyder, Elisabeth

Van Alphen, Melanie

Mike Harris

Population (2016):

Population (2011):93827

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

12,387 34.32%
13,250 36.71%
7,486 20.74%
2,334 6.47%
OTHERS 638 1.77%
Total Transposed 36,095
      Component Riding(s)

(71.95% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Kitchener Centre
(15.79% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

(12.26% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Tim Louis
Harold Albrecht **
Riani De Wet
Stephanie Goertz
Koltyn Wallar

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Harold Albrecht **
Tim Louis
James Villeneuve
Bob Jonkman
Richard Hodgson


27/05/2022 Tony Ducey
MPP Mike Harris Jr. doesn't have the profile of his father former premier Mike Harris. While I think this riding will be close again on June 2 between the PC's and NDP Harris should hold this.
27/05/2022 dtcaslick
I'm not going to voice an opinion on who will win here, but I do think the PCs need to worry about losing. Having driven through this riding frequently for work I have seen New Blue signs on lawns everywhere, and with the new bylaws, you don't see them on public property anymore. This goes for several of the rural ridings in SWO. I'm guessing the NDP would be the likely winner in K-C if vote splitting on the right contributes more than polling shows -- which is what I'm thinking may happen across the province -- and in this riding, that could mean a change of colour (but not likely New Blue).
24/05/2022 Jeremus von Stroheim
I went through the western portion of this riding quite a bit over the weekend, and I don't see how the NDP are winning the sign game? It seemed that for ever 1 Meissner NDP sign, there were about 10 Harris PC signs, and this even held up in the small towns like Baden, which would be necessary for an NDP victory. The bylaws in Waterloo Region only allow signs on private property(though Jim K seems to disagree), which means that signs are a pretty okay gage of support, though it's a new law and I can't compare to previous elections. I saw a few(i.e. 1) Liberal sign(s), though not too many. Note that I was mostly in Wilmot/Wellesly, and didn't see any signs during my jaunt through the Kitchener portions.
While Harris Jr might not be the best candidates the PCs have for the riding, he should hold on among a divided, and not particularly good, opposition.
22/05/2022 FB
The Ndp is winning the lawn sign game, PCs are in second place and in 3rd place is the New Blue. Given how many new blue signs have been put up over the long weekend they will ruin it for the PCs and NDP will come out as the winner.
This riding should be too close to call. When it comes to lawn signs the NDP and PCs are neck and neck. There a noticeable presence of the New Blue albeit small. The PCs are the favorites in this riding however if the New Blue does well here the NDP could take it.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
I see the NDP and Liberals duking it out to demonstrate who is most likely to knock off incumbent PC MPP Mike Harris Jr. In the end, he'll be returned thanks to the vote split.
20/04/22 A.S.
*Nobody* would have considered *this* as a prospective NDP pickup in '18--and yet, there it was (and I'm not sure if it was due to Kelly Dick being any kind of "star candidate" so much to as more generic urban NDP plumping combined w/various clouds over the Michael-into-Mike-Jr Tory-camp transition). This time, it seems like a battle-of-the-female-school-trustees opposition tableau waiting to see how things'll shake out--OTOH there's also the dissident-right wild card of New Blue leader Jim Karahalios running in this riding, so if either of said school trustees has *any* chance, they might have an assist to that end...
30/03/22 Finn
Vote splitting in this riding will allow the PCs to come through the middle and keep this riding. While PC support is down slightly, NDP support is down more, but the Liberals do not look like they are a factor in this riding at this point. PC hold.
15/03/22 R.O.
This riding has been pc since 2011 when Michael Harris was mpp , current mpp Mike Harris jr was elected in 2018 in a close race with ndp who typically had not been much of a factor in the riding. Can?€™t recall any past election where the ndp federally or provincially ran a credible campaign in this rural/suburban riding and came close to winning. Karen Meissner is the new ndp candidate and Melanie Van Alphen liberal candidate. Likely pc hold
06/11/21 seasaw
I give the edge to the PC?€™s, let?€™s forget about the 2018 results. Back then, the NDP had a star candidate, the Liberal premier was extremely unpopular, the PC leader was disliked and there was a lot of chaos in the local PC campaign. The PC?€™s won in spite of all the chaos, this time, there?€™s none of that. The Liberal premier is gone, Doug Ford isn?€™t as disliked now as he was then and the local PC campaign isn?€™t in disarray like it was the last time. So, given the circumstances, PC hold.
06/06/21 Jeremus von Stroheim
The conservatives should have cracked 50% in this riding last time, but instead they got lower than their provincial support. There seems to be quite a bit of anger at Harris in the rural areas from when I travelled through, which doesn't necessarily bode well for him. Each percent below 39 he falls makes it harder and harder to hold the riding. I'd say it's still PC for now, since the NDP have fallen a bit too, but it will be hard for the PCs to hold.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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