Kitchener-Conestoga

	Abdulle, Nasir
	Adair, Jason
	Harris, Mike
	Karahalios, Jim
	Meissner, Karen
	Perrin Snyder, Elisabeth
	Van Alphen, Melanie

Incumbent:

		Mike Harris
Population (2016):			100709
Population (2011):			93827
2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)
		MIKE HARRIS
		17,005	39.57%
		KELLY DICK
		16,319	37.97%
		JOE GOWING
		6,035	14.04%
		BOB JONKMAN
		2,853	6.64%
		DANIEL BENOY
		550	1.28%
		DAN HOLT
		212	0.49%
2014 Election Result: (Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)
		12,387	34.32%
		13,250	36.71%
		7,486	20.74%
		2,334	6.47%
	OTHERS	638	1.77%
	Total Transposed		36,095
Component Riding(s)
	Kitchener-Conestoga (71.95% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
	Kitchener Centre (15.79% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
	Kitchener-Waterloo (12.26% of voters in new riding) 2014/2011/2007 Predictions
2021 Federal Election Prediction
2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		Tim Louis
		20,480	39.70%
		Harold Albrecht **
		20,115	39.00%
		Riani De Wet
		5,204	10.10%
		Stephanie Goertz
		4,946	9.60%
		Koltyn Wallar
		790	1.50%
2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)
		Harold Albrecht **
		20,649	43.30%
		Tim Louis
		20,398	42.80%
		James Villeneuve
		4,653	9.80%
		Bob Jonkman
		1,314	2.80%
		Richard Hodgson
		685	1.40%

	27/05/2022	Tony Ducey 24.137.72.105
MPP Mike Harris Jr. doesn't have the profile of his father former premier Mike Harris. While I think this riding will be close again on June 2 between the PC's and NDP Harris should hold this.
	27/05/2022	dtcaslick 74.12.184.254
I'm not going to voice an opinion on who will win here, but I do think the PCs need to worry about losing. Having driven through this riding frequently for work I have seen New Blue signs on lawns everywhere, and with the new bylaws, you don't see them on public property anymore. This goes for several of the rural ridings in SWO. I'm guessing the NDP would be the likely winner in K-C if vote splitting on the right contributes more than polling shows -- which is what I'm thinking may happen across the province -- and in this riding, that could mean a change of colour (but not likely New Blue).
	24/05/2022	Jeremus von Stroheim 23.248.145.246
I went through the western portion of this riding quite a bit over the weekend, and I don't see how the NDP are winning the sign game? It seemed that for ever 1 Meissner NDP sign, there were about 10 Harris PC signs, and this even held up in the small towns like Baden, which would be necessary for an NDP victory. The bylaws in Waterloo Region only allow signs on private property(though Jim K seems to disagree), which means that signs are a pretty okay gage of support, though it's a new law and I can't compare to previous elections. I saw a few(i.e. 1) Liberal sign(s), though not too many. Note that I was mostly in Wilmot/Wellesly, and didn't see any signs during my jaunt through the Kitchener portions. While Harris Jr might not be the best candidates the PCs have for the riding, he should hold on among a divided, and not particularly good, opposition.
	22/05/2022	FB 209.171.88.153
The Ndp is winning the lawn sign game, PCs are in second place and in 3rd place is the New Blue. Given how many new blue signs have been put up over the long weekend they will ruin it for the PCs and NDP will come out as the winner.
	19/05/2022	23.233.6.115
This riding should be too close to call. When it comes to lawn signs the NDP and PCs are neck and neck. There a noticeable presence of the New Blue albeit small. The PCs are the favorites in this riding however if the New Blue does well here the NDP could take it.
	27/04/22	LeftCoast 207.194.253.26
I see the NDP and Liberals duking it out to demonstrate who is most likely to knock off incumbent PC MPP Mike Harris Jr. In the end, he'll be returned thanks to the vote split.
	20/04/22	A.S. 99.225.52.35
*Nobody* would have considered *this* as a prospective NDP pickup in '18--and yet, there it was (and I'm not sure if it was due to Kelly Dick being any kind of "star candidate" so much to as more generic urban NDP plumping combined w/various clouds over the Michael-into-Mike-Jr Tory-camp transition). This time, it seems like a battle-of-the-female-school-trustees opposition tableau waiting to see how things'll shake out--OTOH there's also the dissident-right wild card of New Blue leader Jim Karahalios running in this riding, so if either of said school trustees has *any* chance, they might have an assist to that end...
	30/03/22	Finn 72.138.106.30
Vote splitting in this riding will allow the PCs to come through the middle and keep this riding. While PC support is down slightly, NDP support is down more, but the Liberals do not look like they are a factor in this riding at this point. PC hold.
	15/03/22	R.O. 24.146.13.249
This riding has been pc since 2011 when Michael Harris was mpp , current mpp Mike Harris jr was elected in 2018 in a close race with ndp who typically had not been much of a factor in the riding. Can?¢â‚¬â„¢t recall any past election where the ndp federally or provincially ran a credible campaign in this rural/suburban riding and came close to winning. Karen Meissner is the new ndp candidate and Melanie Van Alphen liberal candidate. Likely pc hold
	06/11/21	seasaw 99.225.229.135
I give the edge to the PC?¢â‚¬â„¢s, let?¢â‚¬â„¢s forget about the 2018 results. Back then, the NDP had a star candidate, the Liberal premier was extremely unpopular, the PC leader was disliked and there was a lot of chaos in the local PC campaign. The PC?¢â‚¬â„¢s won in spite of all the chaos, this time, there?¢â‚¬â„¢s none of that. The Liberal premier is gone, Doug Ford isn?¢â‚¬â„¢t as disliked now as he was then and the local PC campaign isn?¢â‚¬â„¢t in disarray like it was the last time. So, given the circumstances, PC hold.
	06/06/21	Jeremus von Stroheim 99.251.36.14
The conservatives should have cracked 50% in this riding last time, but instead they got lower than their provincial support. There seems to be quite a bit of anger at Harris in the rural areas from when I travelled through, which doesn't necessarily bode well for him. Each percent below 39 he falls makes it harder and harder to hold the riding. I'd say it's still PC for now, since the NDP have fallen a bit too, but it will be hard for the PCs to hold.