Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Kitchener South-Hespeler

Prediction Changed
2022-05-08 23:34:00

Constituency Profile



Dixon, Jess

Gillies, David

Mohamed, Ismail

Teat, John

Weber, David

Weston, Joanne

Amy Fee

Population (2016):

Population (2011):97673

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

12,403 36.53%
10,894 32.08%
7,895 23.25%
2,124 6.26%
OTHERS 638 1.88%
Total Transposed 33,955
      Component Riding(s)

(64.94% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

(26.73% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Kitchener Centre
(8.33% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Marwan Tabbara **
Alan Keeso
Wasai Rahimi
David Weber
Joseph Todd
Matthew Correia
Elaine Baetz

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Marwan Tabbara
Marian Gagné
Lorne Bruce
David Weber
Nathan Lajeunesse
Elaine Baetz


29/05/2022 dtcaslick
No opinion here. I don't think this is an automatic PC riding, as their incumbent is gone and this riding doesn't have established trends. Dixon, the PC candidate, is formidable but inexperienced. Weston, the NDP candidate has deep community roots and has a political background, if not a long-term one. This was close last time, but how much of that was star power from local celeb and NDP candidate Fitz "the Whip" Vanderpool...? We'll see, but I think it will be close and that vote splitting on the right may be more of an issue than polling has detected.
27/05/2022 Tony Ducey
The incumbent PC MPP, Amy Fee, isn't running again. I have the new PC candidate, Jess Dixon, winning a close race here on June 2
27/04/22 LeftCoast
Strong candidates all around, but my gut tells me Jess Dixon of the PCs will hold retiring MPP Amy Fee's seat. Could easily go Liberal if their provincewide numbers improve, though.
20/04/22 A.S.
I don't think you can deny that if the NDP had any brains, they'd "go all in" here--and remember that in '18, whatever the calibre of the candidate, there would still, yes, still have been some "uh, I don't know..." among voters when it came to *committing* to a party which had spent the better part of a quarter century in the Rae-shadow cooler. Novelty vs caution, that sort of thing. And even under DoFo, the Tories were viewed that year as a generic "cautious choice". So if the NDP seeks to use '18 as foundational proof that they aren't such a high-risk novelty anymore, why not--whether it works or not is another matter; but under that circumstance, who knows whether the NDP's poised to gain at the PCs' expense just as much as the Libs are, a certain all-purpose pan-ideological "floating voter" out there. (Though where the growth is doesn't necessarily correspond with NDP-amenability--still, after '18, one never knows.)
24/03/22 seasaw
@Cal Joanne Weston ? Star candidate? Great name recognition? She?€™s a school board trustees and not all that recognized nor a very good trustee. I expect the Liberals to do a lot better this time around. They probably will get more than 20% support.
22/03/22 Cal
A star candidate with great name recognition. Look for the NDP to go all in for this seat.
15/03/22 R.O.
Amy Fee who was elected here in 2018 as a pc candidate indicated a well back that she would not run again. So as an open race tough to get a feel for at this point. All the main 3 parties running new candidates , Jess Dixon pc , Joanne Weston ndp and Ismail Mohamed liberal. one of those lets wait and see how the election is going before commenting further
02/03/22 KXS
At the moment a PC hold, but things can change.
Horwath's NDP does pretty well in Waterloo region. This is a riding I would put in the NDP column if they are consistently polling above 30%. Right now they are not there.
The Liberals have a long shot in this riding. If they start to get a bounce in the polls, they can probably sweep Waterloo region including this riding.
25/08/21 Chris N
According to CTV, the PC incumbent Amy Fee will not run in 2022, citing family obligations. This could be a potential pick-up for the NDP, as they came just short in 2018.
09/08/21 Sam
Kitchener South was too narrow a riding last time to be considered safe - barring another large PC majority, they'll have a fight on their hands here. This is a growing riding with enough suburban communities where the Liberals could put up a decent total. If non-PC voters coalesce round either one of the two other parties, then that party will win.

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