Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-06-01 03:02:00

Constituency Profile



Auger, Gerry

Downey, Doug

Hughes, Hayden

Lehman, Jeff

Patchell, Beverley

Robinson, Elyse

Doug Downey

Population (2016):

Population (2011):97876

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

15,093 39.26%
14,803 38.51%
5,755 14.97%
2,601 6.77%
OTHERS 188 0.49%
Total Transposed 38,440
      Component Riding(s)

(68.66% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

(18.62% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Simcoe North
(12.72% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Doug Shipley
Brian Kalliecharan
Dan Janssen
Marty Lancaster
David Patterson

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Alex Nuttall
Brian Tamblyn
Ellen White
Marty Lancaster
Darren Roskam
Ram Faerber


31/05/2022 Eric
No doubt Lehman is one of the strongest Liberal candidates on their bench and the mayor of Barrie is going to make this a very hard fought race, but even in the leanest of elections for the PCs (at least until very recently) Barrie has been a PC bastion, and this is hardly a lean year for the PCs, and PC cabinet minister and incumbent Doug Downey is a heavyweight in his own right. Lehman may yet inherit (Liberal) Janice Laking's local fame as being the Mayor of Barrie that no body wanted to elected to higher levels of government because they were generally quite popular as mayor.
29/05/2022 Sofa Pollster
Based upon the previous post, will the Oro Medonte portion of the riding ( that was in Simcoe North before last redistribution) keep this riding BLUE. THis is definitely a TOSS UP now, and may be a seat that decides Maj or MIN PC GOV'T.
27/05/2022 R.O.
Riding is mentioned in a citynews article , where forum polled some key ridings. there numbers for Barrie Springwater Oro Medonte are 41 Jeff Lehman liberal and 40 Doug Downey pc , 9 Beverely Patchell ndp and 3 green . so appears to be extremely close perhaps one of the closest races in Ontario . I still think it will stay pc as they lead province wide and liberals have never won here when in opposition but will depend on turnout and various other factors. https://toronto.citynews.ca/2022/05/26/ontario-election-2022-key-ridings-to-watch/
25/05/2022 Tony Ducey
The inclusion of the mayor of Barrie makes this an interesting seat but I think Attorney General Doug Downey will keep this seat in the PC fold.
13/05/2022 R.O.
The liberals definitely will not win the rural portions of this riding there campaigns in barrie always focused on the city itself. Ive driven thru the rural portions of this riding during various elections over the years and on a typical drive might see 1 or 2 homes with a liberal sign on the entire highway compared to maybe a dozen with pc signs. Unique race as you have 2 candidates who are both virtually certain theyll be mpp by June 2. Jeff Lehman is very well known in Barrie , Del Duca not so much and hes bringing him into the city for campaign stops which is an odd strategy as I though race was all about Jeff Lehman. Doug Downey also a well known mpp and served in various positions at queens park who is in the prime of his political career. Has been a number of city councillors run for the federal cpc here and most got elected such as Patrick Brown and Doug Shipley current mp. actually been a long time since anyone from city hall ran for the liberals here last time was 2003 when city councillor Mike Ramsay ran and lost. But feel the Ford pcs have more staying power than previous pc campaigns which didnt do as well here and liberals may have underestimated that factor.
12/05/2022 Lives in the riding
If Jeff Lehman campaigns in the rural parts of this riding he has a very good chance of winning. Tamblyn ignored the rural part of the riding and lost by under 100 votes.
07/05/2022 LFCottawa
Any expert in the field of polling or political science will tell you that a start candidate is worth about 3-5% of the vote, whereas the party and leader are the rest. Last time I checked, the Liberals lost this by far more than 3-5%. PC hold, by a closer margin.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
This will be a close race but I suspect sitting Attorney General Doug Downey will best Barrie mayor Jeff Lehman. Barrie is one of the best mid-sized cities in Ontario for the federal and provincial Tories and will likely remain so. However, if the Liberals end up winning government outright, this could be one of the seats that get them there.
20/04/22 Sofa Pollster
This seat will definitely be a toss up. Popular Barrie Mayor versus current incumbant who lost the nomination for the PC's in Simcoe North. Remember Patrick Brown went into Garfield Dunlop's old seat and then Jill Dunlop and Doug Downey fought for Simcoe North nomination. This seat will be more RED than last election. Many regardless of riding abandoned the Liberal party.
15/04/22 A.S.
Hard to say how much "trouble" Doug Downey's in--and depending on whether and how much the dynamics favour or don't favour the Del Duca Libs, Lehman's profile could just as well make him a '22 equivalent of Shelley Carroll in DVN in '18, or for that matter Gerry Marshall in Simcoe North in '18. Just not "unbeatable" enough, given the party he's running for and the territory he's running in--though in the event that the Libs recapture something of their pre-'18 health, I agree on BSOM being a sleeper prospect even in its present "rurban" configuration (which the surprise federal recount result in '15 affirmed). And given Keenan Aylwin's '18 result for the Greens, if there were to be some kind of Mike Morrice-type Red/Green functional alliance, that could go a long way on the Libs' behalf as well...
08/03/22 R.O.
No doubt Jeff Lehman is a well known candidate in this riding but still Simcoe county and provincial races more partisan than municipal. So my sense is it creates a more competitive race than would have been expected here. He would have been better suited for the old Barrie riding which was more urban and only city limits, this riding divides city in 2 and includes a large rural area. there also doesnt appear to be any local provincial issues specific to Barrie that would create more voter unrest . Doug Downey still the incumbent and served in cabinet at queen?€™s park. Likely to see more visits by Ford to Barrie now that its an actual race here.
26/02/22 Mighty Mike
With Mayor Lehman putting his hat in the ring, this normally Conservative riding might actually go red. Too bad he'll likely become a backbench MPP of the third party
24/02/22 seasaw
Sure, the PC party may win the election, and sure the Liberals will probably be a third party again, but in this particular riding, Doug Downey is in trouble. Barrie Mayor Mr Lehman is running for the Liberals and Lehman?€™s unbeatable, regardless of who he runs for. So my prediction, Liberal pick up
24/02/22 Jeremus von Stroheim
Well, it seems the Liberals got the mayor, which is the best candidate you can probably get. Will likely come down to the tide of the election, but the NDP can probably be written off now, and it will be far more competitive than if the liberals ran a nobody.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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