Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-02-28 00:41:00

Constituency Profile



Cumpson, Drew

Hillier, Chelsea

Jordan, John

Lewandowski, Marcin

Massey Rogers, Craig Timothy

Mulder, Thomas

Pulker-Mok, Amanda

Spruyt, Marlene

Randy Hillier

Population (2016):

Population (2011):98424

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

11,815 27.98%
19,816 46.92%
7,678 18.18%
2,903 6.87%
OTHERS 18 0.04%
Total Transposed 42,229
      Component Riding(s)

Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington
(79.05% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Carleton-Mississippi Mills
(12.59% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Kingston and the Islands
(8.36% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Scott Reid **
Kayley Kennedy
Satinka Schilling
Stephen Kotze
Matthew Barton

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Scott Reid **
Phil Archambault
John Fenik
Anita Payne
Mark Budd


27/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Yeah, the PC's may get a bit of a split here due to the other right wing parties and former MPP Randy Hillier's daughter, Chelsea, being a candidate here for one of the parties. That said the PC's will hold on here.
23/05/2022 Wildcat49xx
From my experience of living in Carleton place when I was young,I can tell you things have drastically changed in town.The population has doubled since 1998,and there are tons of new people who live in town that are from Ottawa,Montreal, Toronto, and from other towns and cities in Canada.Plus, they have migrants and refugees from Syria, Ukraine, and from India, Middle East. Since the town has grown, they need more services for education,healthcare due to the huge increase of population.Aldo Randy hiller daughter running for office could split the vote on the right, and liberals, greens, in ndp could cone up through the middle like a dark horse. Keep in mind, there are 4 people running on the right.Which is a very strong signal the right wing vote will split, and somebody else from the liberals, ndp, or green will win on election night
20/05/2022 R.O.
Looking thru the list of candidates for this riding and surprised to see Chelsea Hillier is running for the populist party of Ontario. A party I wasnt even aware existed until I saw a sign for them in my riding a couple weeks ago. She had run federally for the Peoples Party in Elgin Middlesex London a riding in South Western Ontario last fall and is obviously related to Randy Hillier as she is his daughter. Makes for a much different race here as riding has no incumbent but largely still a pc riding in rural eastern Ontario.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
Like him or not, the last few terms have been interesting for the good people of LFK. Under new PC MPP John Jordan, things will likely be less interesting.
17/04/22 A.S.
Back to a sort of non-rogue normal for the PCs with the son of former MPP Leo Jordan vs disability activist Cumpson for the NDP and '18 retread Pulker-Mok for the Libs. *Only* if Hillier were to run again, or stick his nose into the race through endorsement of a dissident-right force, would this be "one to watch"--but for all his grandstanding, even Hillier was always overrated as a local powerhouse, and 52% in '18 and losing a good deal of South Frontenac was, if not altogether unpredictable, not exactly stellar for the party. And besides, PPC only got 6% in LFK in '21, even though that was the same party Hillier's daughter was running for in SW Ontario. "Landowners" and freedom freaks may be loud, but they aren't the standalone critical masses they think they are.
04/03/22 R.O.
Randy Hillier just announced his retirement he had been an mpp since 2007 so perhaps this shouldn?€™t of been a surprise. Actually good news for pc?€™s as vote splitting less of a concern here with him off the ballot. the new pc candidate is John Jordan .
25/01/22 Cade S
The Conservatives will easily win this Riding. Hillier has never been a great constituency MP. His personality and politics probably cost the Party more votes than he ever brought in, and his behavior during the pandemic has tarnished any legitimacy he had. Even in rural ridings, you need some support from the ?€?respectable?€™ people to win, and Hillier doesn't have it.
Conservatives with about 20000 votes, Liberals and the NDP tied just under 10000 each, Hillier with maybe 2000 if he runs.
11/12/21 Dr Bear
We have seen recently how well populist blowhards fare once they are expelled from their respective parties. That is to say: not particularly well. Were this a swing seat, or one where a party other than the PCs had a reasonable chance, then sure it would be TCTC. However, being a reliable PC seat in an election where the PCs are going to be on the ropes, expect the average voter to rally around DoFo &Co as opposed to their wayward MPP.
20/05/21 Chris N
Populist MPP Randy Hillier was kicked out of the PC caucus in 2019 and how sits as an Independent. He has deep roots to the conservative base in the riding, which historically has been dominated by local landowners groups. To my knowledge, Hillier has not declared if he is running again in 2022. However, he could be a formidable candidate as an Independent. Will local Conservatives stick with Hillier or support the new PC candidate? And could a split right wing lead to a a Liberal or New Democrat winning? This will be an exciting race in 2022.

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