Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-05-30 01:12:00

Constituency Profile



Abulail, Zane

Gleason, Jennifer

Henriques, Matthew

Kanapathi, Logan

Qureshi, Mansoor

Tam, Sandra

Logan Kanapathi

Population (2016):

Population (2011):102221

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

16,074 51.37%
10,904 34.85%
3,187 10.19%
729 2.33%
OTHERS 394 1.26%
Total Transposed 31,289
      Component Riding(s)

(75.16% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

(24.84% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Mary Ng **
Alex Yuan
Paul Sahbaz
Chris Williams
Peter Remedios
Josephbai Macwan

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

John McCallum **
Jobson Easow
Senthi Chelliah
Joshua Russell


30/05/2022 Dr Bear
This riding (or itís predecessors) have often bucked trends in favour of the Liberals (see 2011 federal election). Keeping that in mind, those 2018 provincial numbers cannot stand. There is no way that the NDP will stay at 21% of the vote. Likewise, I canít see the PCs staying over the 50% mark. Nevertheless, I see no compelling reasons for me to expect that the Liberals will surpass the PCs vote share. The PCs are just too strong in the York region. Though, considering my opening sentence to this post, we could be surprised (Iím not betting money on it).
28/05/2022 Tony Ducey
I think the PC's will hold on here.
27/05/2022 seasaw
With less than a week to go in the campaign, thereís no indication that the Liberal numbers are rising in the 905, polls put them anywhere between 8 to 21
points behind the PCís. But as said by an English statesman ď In politics an afternoon can be a lifetime ď, and there are still 5 afternoons, so potentially 5 lifetimes left in this campaign. So unless something drastic happens in the next 5, thereís not much hope for too many Liberal wins in 905, particularly not in this riding.
27/05/2022 R.O.
Looking at the results from the past election here and polls for this election which have the pcís ahead hard to see how mathematically the opposition could win here. even if you assume the liberals are doing a bit better the pcís got 50% of the vote here last time. A bit better at the expense of the ndp isnít going to alter the results here. Del Duca has made some campaign stops here and not even sure if Ford has been to Markham yet but that doesnít seem to make much of a difference. True liberals did well here federally but this is a provincial election and this riding often represented by different parties federally/provincially and Mary Ng was high profile , Sandra Tam only a liberal candidate at this point. A pc hold for Logan Kanapathi would seem to be most likely outcome.
27/04/22 WesternLeftist
PC incumbent Logan Kanapathi will hold on, but could be vulnerable if Liberal numbers in the 905 continue to rise.
05/04/22 A.S.
A conundrum for the Libs in Markham: should they go for the Brahmins in Stouffville, or should they go for the ethnoburbans in Thornhill? Longer-term (and federal) history would show that the latter's more within reach; shorter-turn history suggests that the latter's more likely to be "Ford Liberal". Yet shorter-term still (i.e. '21) suggests that many of said Ford Libs might well be re-Liberalizing--but that's the federal sphere. And we are talking about a provincial party absent of OPS and hence of many of the readily-available resources to mount the kind of viable challenge they may wish for. Still, this is the York Region seat where the dynamic might be most 416ish rather than "anti-416ish", in a manner of speaking; so, *something* bears monitoring. (Oh, and in an odd echo of results in Thornhill riding to the W, the W-of-404 parts actually saw the NDP, and not the Libs, in 2nd in '18.)
04/04/22 R.O.
Logan Kanapathi was first elected here in 2018 provincially , prior to that he had been a city councillor for Markham . this is a fairly safe liberal riding federally but not sure that means much provincially especially this election. New liberal candidate is Sandra Tam and ndp candidate is Matthew Hendriques.
01/03/22 Finn
This is a tough riding to call. On one hand, you can make the argument that the PCs should be able to win this riding easily if you look at the results from 2018, where the PCs won my more than 25 points. However, you could also make the argument that the Liberals should be able to win this easily as in both 2019 and 2021 this was one of the safest seats in the 905 for the Liberals federally. I expect the actual result to be somewhere in the middle of the two, and I expect this race to be too close to call until election night.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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