Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-06-01 03:00:00

Constituency Profile



Ali, Sameera

Cirlincione, Katherine

Gill, Parm

Khan, Masood

Knox, Oriana

Spina, John

Parm Gill

Population (2016):

Population (2011):88065

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

13,964 43.09%
12,171 37.56%
4,672 14.42%
1,161 3.58%
OTHERS 437 1.35%
Total Transposed 32,406
      Component Riding(s)

(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Adam van Koeverden
Lisa Raitt **
Farina Hassan
Eleanor Hayward
Percy Dastur

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Lisa Raitt **
Azim Rizvee
Alex Anabusi
Mini Batra
Chris Jewell


28/05/2022 M.B.
PC lean. Public property signage here is split between Liberal, PC, NDP, and New Blue (who have been more present than the Greens here). Private property signage leans PC with significant Liberal signage and a little NDP. Vote splitting on the left should be more than on the right, and MPP Gill has been competent, engaged me with newsletters, and avoided any scandals.
28/05/2022 Tony Ducey
The site I'm using has the Liberals ahead here based upon the polling formula they use. Here it's tctc. For me I'm going to give the PC's a win here. The area has been a mainly PC area since the Harris years.
25/05/2022 Finn
Previously I had made a prediction that the Liberals would win this riding. I have since reversed that prediction and now believe that the PCs will narrowly keep this riding. The PC numbers are too stable for the Liberals to be able to overtake the PCs here, though it will be incredibly close.
25/05/2022 seasaw
The way things look right now, the Liberals will be hard pressed to win any 905 ridings. Theres however just over a week left in the campaign and things may or may not change. This riding, however, will be one of the last to flip. PC hold.
23/05/2022 Jimmy
I was in Milton yesterday. Parm Gill signs are everywhere. The Liberal signs are mostly on public property. This seat is going Tory this time.
22/05/2022 Eric
Strong PC hold ... if Andrew Scheer or Sam Oosterhoff were leaders of the provincial PCs and/or Ms. Naidoo-Harris were running for the Liberals here, might be TC/TC. Not this year.
This prediction website is (rightly) predicting certain Metro ridings remain PC, and the odds of this riding following it's federal counterpart in trending red are quite low. The last time ANY (emphasis) metro Toronto riding went blue and this riding didn't was back in 1990 when it went NDP on an almost textbook 3 way split. (You had 3 metro ridings that year flipping to the PCs from the Liberals).
01/05/2022 R.O.
Parm Gill is a good fit for this growing and diverse riding. A lot of the pc policy is also aimed at suburban voters from expanding highways to refunding license plate sticker fees. Items that are popular in the suburbs where most people still own vehicles. The ndp were slow to nominate a candidate here but appears there candidate is Katherine Cirlincione and greens running Oriana Knox. This riding has typically seen close races but still think it will stay pc based on current polls.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
This riding is changing. What was once a safe small town PC seat is now a growing multicultural suburb. Carpetbagging former MP Parm Gill bolted here in 2018 after losing his Brampton seat in 2018. I think he'll be defeated by Milton town councillor Sameera Ali.
14/04/22 A.S.
Re Milton always being Lib-friendly: due to population change and the morph of party identity (and the sometime quirkiness of provincial Lib office-holding in the Big Blue Machine era), pre-90s don't count--and one certainly couldn't call this the most Lib-friendly in Halton over the course of the Ted Chudleigh era. (Heck, prior to the present boom, Milton was more of a piece--even in riding draw--with Halton Hills; and whatever its representation then, nobody's going to call Halton Hills "most Liberal friendly" now.) The fact that after finally upsetting Chudleigh in '14, IN-H was still able to hold on to nearly 30% of the vote in '18's debacle says a lot about where Lib strength in Milton now stands (though Parm Gill being a parachute and NDP being an also-ran probably helped matters in the Liberal direction) Obviously the Libs would need to win this if they're to form a minority gov't--but when they're coming from single-digit seat numbers, the prospect of such a gov't (other than by way of stop-the-Ford-Tories grand coalition) is thin. But as Adam VK proved federally, it's a *lot* more low-hanging than it might have seemed a decade ago, i.e. if the Del Duca Libs were to scrape together a caucus akin to the Eves/Tory/Hudak-era PCs in size (or even smaller), this'd be one of its components *now*, ironically much as it was one of the components of said Eves/Tory/Hudak caucuses *then*.
02/04/22 AD
I agree with the previous poster that Milton is indeed changing, I just disagree over how much it has changed. I don't think it is enough for Parm Gill to lose the seat. If polls change wildly, so could the outcome of this riding, but for now this seems to be the direction of things.
29/03/22 Finn
I am not convinced this will be a PC win. Halton, especially Milton, has become less and less conservative as more and more liberal minded folks move there. Milton was won by less than 12 percent last time around, and it is certainly not a guarantee that they win it again. With the NDP going down in support and the PCs slightly down, at thus point I would give the edge to the Liberals.
20/03/22 R.O.
Parm Gill who had been an mp for Brampton in 2011 was first elected here in 2018 , when he defeated liberal mpp Indira Nadioo Harris who had been elected in 2014. Riding had been pc for years before that but had seen some close races. Milton has been one of the fastest growing cities for years, many new homes built here. not sure if new census figures have been released as to how many live here now. New liberal candidate is Sameera Ali and unsure who the ndp will run
19/03/22 seasaw
@KXS This riding hasn?€™t become the most Liberal friendly in Halton, it always was. Remember, the Liberals held this from 1971 to 1995. But based on the current polls and the current mood, this riding will stay PC. That may change however in the fut
02/03/22 KXS
This will be an interesting riding to watch. One of the seats the Liberals need to win if they want to eek out a minority government.
Milton has become the most Liberal friendly riding in Halton region. The Liberals are fielding a local councilor.
I think the PCs still have the advantage at this moment. The polls are consistently showing them in the lead, esp. in the 905 area.
18/06/21 JW
Despite winning all four seats in Halton Region, Ford did not elevate a single Halton MPP to his cabinet. (Understandably, they are all pretty average/unimpressive... but you figure there would be a token presence for the region) I suspect if Ford is back in as Premier, most of the four Halton MPPs will be back in with him. If Ford is out, none will buck the trend.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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