Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Mississauga Centre

Prediction Changed
2022-05-26 00:41:00

Constituency Profile



Chornopyskyy, Viktor

Diab, Elie

Franklin, Adriane

Kusendova, Natalia

Malik, Sumira

Simpson, Audrey

Vezina, Greg

Walji, Sarah

Wright, Stephanie

Natalia Kusendova

Population (2016):

Population (2011):118756

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

17,903 51.49%
9,059 26.05%
5,543 15.94%
1,027 2.95%
OTHERS 1,238 3.56%
Total Transposed 34,769
      Component Riding(s)

Mississauga East-Cooksville
(36.85% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

(31.31% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Mississauga-Brampton South
(23.60% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

(8.24% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Omar Alghabra **
Milad Mikael
Sarah Walji
Hugo Reinoso
David Micalef
Greg Vezina

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Omar Alghabra
Julius Tiangson
Farheen Khan
Linh Nguyen


28/05/2022 Tony Ducey
I have the PC's holding on here. The current MPP isn't overly well known but seems to be a solid candidate (She was a nurse prior to being MPP and has returned to nursing to help out during the pandemic)
19/05/2022 R.O.
Historically the pcs have won seats in Mississauga when they were in power so not sure what voting patterns previous poster is quoting. Former Mississauga mayor Hazel Mccallion also endorsed Doug Ford which is a big boost for the pcs in Mississauga. Del Duca isnt really that well known in Peel and his effort to campaign here seems too late. Commuters in peel are also tired of grid lock and the idea of a new highway is not something that upsets them. Still feel Natalie Kusendova has the advantage here
19/05/2022 CD
Given historical patterns, even though PCs start with an edge the odds are good that the Liberals can flip many Mississauga ridings, including this one. Latest polling doesn't have the gap between PCs and Liberals large enough in the GTA to give the PCs space in places like Mississauga.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
Mississauga tends to swing heavily between the two parties. PC incumbent Natalia Kusendova has gotten a lot of good publicity during the pandemic, but this is amoung the strongest seats for the Liberals in the city, and they should be able to take it back easily, despite a low-profile candidate in Sumira Malik.
11/04/22 A.S.
If Kusendova seems relatively anonymous, remember that she was a second-string PC standard-bearer after Tanya Granic Allen was forced to withdraw in '18; so she just blew in with the wave in characteristic Mississauga style. And TGA wasn't alone; the NDP candidate was also raked over the coals for controversial statements--but not only did she not withdraw, she finished 2nd (and won a surprising number of MCC condo polls), suggesting that even Mississauga's viable for the Dippers if they only tried. While they *are* running a previous federal candidate, it's far from clear that the NDP got that particular memo--it doesn't help that Mississauga tends to be "sweepy", and that kind of "sweepiness" tends to favour big-tent Liberal over the unproven NDP. Yet if it's the Libs benefiting winningly, wouldn't that put Del Duca on the brink of government? If the PCs falter, Mississauga could wind up more electorally interesting than it's practically *ever* been...
31/03/22 R.O.
Natalie Kusendova was first elected in the 2018 election , the riding had no incumbent that year but had previously been liberal. relatively low profile mpp , few people likely know there is a nurse from Mississuaga who is also a pc mpp at queens park. Sumira Malik is the new liberal candidate and Sarah Walji is running for ndp.
06/03/22 seasaw
The previous poster is correct that this is the strongest Liberal riding in Mississauga, and with it comes resources. Of course a big reason for the federal success is Omar. The candidate plays a big role, and the incumbent Natalia, has been immensely popular for the work she?€™s done, and while I do believe that the Liberals will do a lot better here this time around, don?€™t think it?€™ll be good enough to win the seat.
25/09/21 Chris N
This riding was the Liberal Party of Canada's strongest showing in Mississauga in the recent federal election. Of course, federal support does not equal provincial support, but it can indicate a party's resources and base in the riding. If the Del Duca-led Liberals can improve their fortunes in June, this could be a seat they win back.
18/06/21 JW
Despite winning all six Mississauga seats, Ford did not elevate a single Mississauga MPP to his cabinet. (Understandably, they are all pretty average/unimpressive... but you figure there would be a token presence for the province's second largest city!) Mississauga ridings have almost consistently been the bellweather indicators both provincially and federally in the past couple decades. If Ford is back in as premier, most of the six Mississauga PC MPPs will be back in with him. If Ford is out as premier, none will buck the trend.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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