Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Mississauga East-Cooksville

Prediction Changed
2022-05-31 12:24:00

Constituency Profile



Damerla, Dipika

Hea, James

Hussain, Khawar

Jachtholtz, Wiktor

Morrissey, Mark

Rasheed, Kaleed

Tomchyshyn, Gregory

Kaleed Rasheed

Population (2016):

Population (2011):121792

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

18,510 50.19%
10,302 27.93%
5,500 14.91%
1,344 3.65%
OTHERS 1,224 3.32%
Total Transposed 36,880
      Component Riding(s)

Mississauga East-Cooksville
(78.23% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Mississauga-Brampton South
(21.77% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Peter Fonseca **
Wladyslaw Lizon
Tom Takacs
Maha Rasheed
Syed Rizvi
Anna Di Carlo

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Peter Fonseca
Wladyslaw Lizon **
Ali Naqvi
Jaymini Bhikha
Tim Sullivan


28/05/2022 Tony Ducey
This 1 is hard to pick as the incumbent PC MPP is a cabinet minister (Albeit a low level cabinet minister - Digital Services) but the Liberals are running the former MPP for this area who is now a city councilor. Seems to be leaning Liberal from what I can read so I'll pick it to go Liberal as well.
19/05/2022 CD
Given historical patterns, even though PCs start with an edge the odds are good that the Liberals can flip many Mississauga ridings, including this one. Latest polling doesn't have the gap between PCs and Liberals large enough in the GTA to give the PCs space in places like Mississauga.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
I think former Liberal MPP Dipka Damerla will easily snag this seat back from PC incumbent Kaleed Rasheed. She did very well in 2018 compared to fellow Liberal incumbents.
06/04/22 A.S.
How is a Lib win here a "most certain outcome"? Damerla did well in defeat by '18 OLP standards, but not "Charles Sousa" well; nor was she ever larger-than-life in the way that her predecessor Peter Fonseca *seemed* to be (and even Fonseca in federal office ultimately hasn't exactly performed in larger-than-life terms at the ballot box). The riding's "traditional Liberal ground" in the most generically conditional Mississauga way, and the conditionality lives on in the present PC incumbency--if you want "un-natural" Toryism in Mississauga, you're better off looking to Miss Centre or Miss-Malton. Plus, while the Libs are polling better, they're still the non-OPS 3rd party and such sickliness can presently constrain them. I'm not saying that Damerla *can't* win; just, let's exercise a little restraint here...
31/03/22 R.O.
Kaleed Rasheed was first elected here in 2018 when he beat liberal mpp Dipika Damerla who is running again this year. Mississauga typically been a swing area provincially as the pc’s won here in the 90’s then it was liberal until Ford won the last election. Ndp yet to select a candidate but typically don’t do well in Mississauga although did win seats in Brampton last election. Incumbent is a relatively likeable mpp and increased his profile at queens park.
30/03/22 Finn
Out of all the Mississauga ridings, this riding is has the most certain outcome in my opinion. PC incumbent Kaleed Rasheed is not particularly strong, and this is traditional Liberal ground. Expect the Liberals to be able to retake this riding on election night.
06/03/22 KXS
Dipika Damerla should be able to win this back for the Liberals.
She performed better than most Liberal incumbents in Peel in 2018. She's now an incumbent city councillor.
The Liberals are polling better than they did in 2018 and this is a Liberal friendly area.
06/03/22 seasaw
While I agree with Dr Bear that this is not a natural PC territory, I believe that barring an unforeseen situation they will be able to hang on to this riding. Remember,they did win here in '95 and '99, the incumbent is a very visible MPP, and last time a lot of people were nervous about Ford, so many held their noses and voted Liberal. Now, that scare is gone, the incumbent is strong and the challenger was a big player in the unpopular government. All these factors should produce a PC win
08/10/21 Dr Bear
This is not a natural PC seat and it went to the Conservatives because of the Liberal?€™s collapsing. Despite this, the Liberals did hold a significant portion of their previous support. Now that the LPO has spent a term in the penalty box, there will be a bit of a rebound and this, especially with the former MPP running again. Unless the NDP look like they are going to form government, much of that 2018 support will return to team red. Add in a bit of PC attrition and the Liberals will take back this seat.
18/06/21 JW
Despite winning all six Mississauga seats, Ford did not elevate a single Mississauga MPP to his cabinet. (Understandably, they are all pretty average/unimpressive... but you figure there would be a token presence for the province's second largest city!) Mississauga ridings have almost consistently been the bellweather indicators both provincially and federally in the past couple decades. If Ford is back in as premier, most of the six Mississauga PC MPPs will be back in with him. If Ford is out as premier, none will buck the trend.

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