Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-06-02 01:53:00

Constituency Profile



Jajou, Fourat

Kendic, Amir

Little, Len

Oliver, Christine

Promoli, Jill

Rabba, Nicholas

Rahamut, Reead

Tangri, Nina

Nina Tangri

Population (2016):

Population (2011):118757

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

19,900 51.13%
11,381 29.24%
5,260 13.52%
1,518 3.90%
OTHERS 861 2.21%
Total Transposed 38,919
      Component Riding(s)

(85.14% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Mississauga-Brampton South
(14.84% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

(0.01% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Gagan Sikand **
Ghada Melek
Samir Girguis
Chris Hill
Thomas McIver
Natalie Spizzirri

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Gagan Sikand
Brad Butt **
Fayaz Karim
Chris Hill
Yegor Tarazevich


01/06/2022 R.O.
There was a mainstreet riding poll that shows the liberal candidate leading here although mainstreets daily tracking shows a 12 point lead for the pc’s province wide so kind of difficult to figure out the logic of that pollster. There was an article for citynews on key ridings , they polled Mississauga Centre and had the pc candidate 4 points ahead and said in Mississauga the pc’s had about a 5 point lead and that it be hard for the liberals to catch them. The advance voting is also over and it took place when pc’s leading in the polls so that would make it even more challenging for the opposition. With pc’s leading in the polls the expectation be that they’d hold a riding like Mississauga Streetsville despite the fact it does have a liberal history but this is a different election than past years. Nina Tangri is also now the incumbent unlike past years when she was just a candidate.
30/05/2022 Aware Observer
With only a few days to go, this riding is now breaking for the Liberals. Rarely has this riding gone anything other than Liberal, and it's coming back to them again with an incredibly hard working and enthusiastic candidate, Jill Promoli. She and her team seem to be everywhere in the riding, and I believe that much of the NDP support will collapse with their voters realizing that the only way to defeat Ford is to vote Liberal, strategically. It's always good to see the candidate with the most drive and energy and effort (hard work) win. I think that is easily Ms. Promoli's strong suit and she'll probably be rewarded. I'm not sure why other posters feel that Hazel McCallion's words influence voters. Perhaps 10 years ago, but now, voters want hard workers who will work for their riding. I think the Liberals win by a few percentage points here.
21/05/2022 seasaw
@CD, The gap isn't big enough to win ridings like this? The PC's have the same lead that they had in 1995, and unless things change dramatically, any Liberal hope to win any Mississauga riding evaporated with Hazel McCallion's endorsement of Doug Ford
20/05/2022 HDude
Given the current polling of the Ford PCs, along with the recent endorsement of former Mississauga mayor Hazel Mccallion, this riding should be held relatively easily. The Liberals while more competitive then the last election will NOT sweep Mississauga as strangely implied by the last post. And even if they pick-up a riding or two, this one is a relatively safe PC hold.
19/05/2022 CD
Given historical patterns, even though PCs start with an edge the odds are good that the Liberals can flip many Mississauga ridings, including this one. Latest polling doesn't have the gap between PCs and Liberals large enough in the GTA to give the PCs space in places like Mississauga.
16/05/2022 Zeek
If the PCs lose every other riding in Mississauga… they’ll keep this one. Highest margin in Mississauga last time and a female minority candidate in an ethnically diverse riding.
Promoli not a strong choice for this particular community—why not someone local through a nomination process? And while the NDP outperformed the Liberals last time, they currently stand no chance.
09/05/2022 Aware Observer
This riding has traditionally favoured the Liberal Party both provincially and federally. In fact, except for the Ford wave of 2018 (which was really much more anti-Wynne sentiment than pro-Ford sentiment), the riding has reliably gone Liberal. I think this time the riding will return to the Liberals. The Liberal candidate (Jill Promoli) is a star candidate who has been working intensely hard for a year in the riding, knocking on doors every day for a year, gathering a strong team, and is incredibly organzied. I'm a voter who was on the fence, but will be voting Liberal this time, simply for the candidate and her strong desire to connect with the voters and her values and work ethic.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
Red tide across the 905 sweeps aside associate minister Nina Tangri. If Liberal numbers tank, I think this might be one of their best opportunities to hold a Mississauga seat (after Lakeshore, of course)
06/04/22 A.S.
An interesting sort of star Lib candidate (one who was targeted by anti-vaxx activists before Covid made anti-vaxx lunacy, er, cool). OTOH keep in mind that Tangri had the highest winning Tory share in Mississauga last time out (though she didn't have a vestigially vote-stealing Charles Sousa to run against). Of course, the fact that the urban Peel Region Tory ceiling remained "only" low 40s, and all Mississauga seats saw either the Libs or an "endorsed proxy" (as opposed to an "accidental" one) cross the 25% threshold, is opposition cause for hope.
04/04/22 R.O.
Nina Tangri was first elected here in 2018 she had previously ran in this riding several times provincially and federally. She beat liberal mpp Bob Delaney that year who somehow came in 3rd here. new liberal candidate is Jill Promoli and ndp running Nicholas Rabba. Mostly been a liberal area but the pc’s did win here in the 90’s so Mississauga somewhat of a swing area.
11/10/21 John W.
Jill Promoli is an excellent candidate in her own right, and is already well-known in the community. Factor in the likelihood that the Liberals will be not nearly as unpopular as they were in 2018 and this should be a winnable riding for them.
18/06/21 JW
Despite winning all six Mississauga seats, Ford did not elevate a single Mississauga MPP to his cabinet. (Understandably, they are all pretty average/unimpressive... but you figure there would be a token presence for the province's second largest city!) Mississauga ridings have almost consistently been the bellweather indicators both provincially and federally in the past couple decades. If Ford is back in as premier, most of the six Mississauga PC MPPs will be back in with him. If Ford is out as premier, none will buck the trend.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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