Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-03-09 09:09:00

Constituency Profile



Corriveau, Kathleen

Double, Brian

Emmerson, Bryan

Macleod, Lisa

Tremblay, Kaitlyn

Watt, Tyler

Lisa Macleod

Population (2016):

Population (2011):104775

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

15,342 36.30%
18,273 43.23%
5,703 13.49%
2,328 5.51%
OTHERS 623 1.47%
Total Transposed 42,268
      Component Riding(s)

(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Chandra Arya **
Brian St. Louis
Zaff Ansari
Jean-Luc Cooke
Azim Hooda
Dustan Wang

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Chandra Arya
Andy Wang
Sean Devine
Jean-Luc Roger Cooke
Jesus Cosico
Hubert Mamba
Harry Splett
Tony Seed


30/05/2022 R.O.
This isnt a long time pc riding like others in rural eastern Ontario, this is a suburban area near Ottawa. Its a Lisa Mcleod riding shes held it since 2006 and very well known in the city by now. Its voted liberal federally since 2015 when Chandra Ayra first got elected here. with polls showing the pcs well ahead province wide and fact advance voting already over shes the clear favorite here. would expect different opposition numbers here with liberals likely to return to second.
28/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Macleod's record in cabinet has been less than stellar but this riding seems to be very staunch PC, doubt that changes this election.
23/05/2022 Wildcat49xx
I think thd liberals could win this on election night because many teachers,nurses are voting for tyler watt. Plus there are 2 or 3 other people running on the right which will split the Conservatives vote.
10/05/2022 Political Man
Lisa MacLeod has been caught with her hand in the cookie jar by double dipping by taking money from her riding association to use as her own ATM machine. This riding could be closer than expected.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
Tyler Watt is a strong candidate for the Liberals who has run a spirited campaign against a somewhat conterversial incumbent, but ultimately I think PC minister Lisa Macleod will hold out.
17/04/22 A.S.
Hey, *I've* been of the longstanding POV that the future electoral fate of the hitherto-invincible Lisa Macleod is to be monitored--however, 3 Liberal predictions right out of the starting block seems to me like jumping the gun. Particularly given how this is one of those '18-model Lib 3rd places in the NCR, even if the Libs still go into this with the stronger legacy infrastructural foundation for a potential victory--if they had a NCR rather than 905 leader, things'd be clearer (not to mention back-to-the-Dalton-days); but, they don't. One unfortunate byproduct of both the left split and the "megapoll" polling-station consolidation, though, is the skewed impression left by Macleod sweeping the polls in '18 (even the seniors' polls)--here as in so many other Ontario ridings, we might otherwise be seeing a polling map speckled with orange and red, rather than one mass of big dumb blue. (But if it obfuscates things on behalf of ruling forces, then I guess all is well as far as said ruling forces go.)
24/03/22 R.O.
Lisa Mcleod was first elected in the Nepean Carleton riding way back in 2006, true this riding has been redistributed into the new Nepean riding but she still won that riding in 2018. The new liberal candidate is not high profile and not aware of him being elected to office before or even running politically in the city of Ottawa. Lisa Mcleod is well known by now , has a long history and deep roots in this riding. Its also unclear who the ndp plan to run here they came in 2nd last time which was a surprise.
08/03/22 AD
Somehow, I feel like this year will lead to a bit of a rebuke of the right wing from Ottawa. Something might be on that city's mind this election cycle, there's the issues of redistribution, and also just the changing dynamics of the growing city all make me think the Liberals could take this one.
I think Tyler watt may win this riding by a slim margin if votes.
Here is why:
- people fed up with an ontario govt not having a clear plan to deal with the pandemic.
- lack of jobs in ottawa for people over 30 years of age will impact things because the people over 30 are the ones who tend to buy homes, cars,start a family.Without a decent paying job how are people supposed to get married,buy a home,or car,etc.
-the riding has many migrants who were harrased by convoy protesters
- parents are concerned about their kids education and well being
30/07/21 Cory
This could end up being one of the bigger surprises on election night. The Liberals have been gaining ground in Ottawa, the candidate in this riding is young and so far impressive, and Macleod has been at best a disappointment as a cabinet minister.
Redistribution has also made this riding a bit more Liberal-friendly, and if the Liberals pick up at least 2 seats in Ottawa this will be one of them.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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