Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Niagara Falls

Prediction Changed
2022-05-26 00:43:00

Constituency Profile



Gale, Bob

Gates, Wayne

Kavanagh, Wesley

Lewis-Napolitano, Christine

St. Denis-Richard, Devon

Ward, Tommy

Waters, Ashley

Wayne Gates

Population (2016):

Population (2011):128357

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

7,329 14.39%
16,702 32.80%
24,131 47.39%
1,724 3.39%
OTHERS 1,037 2.04%
Total Transposed 50,923
      Component Riding(s)

Niagara Falls
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Tony Baldinelli
Andrea Kaiser
Brian Barker
Mike Strange
Sandra O'Connor
Alexander Taylor
Tricia O'Connor

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Rob Nicholson **
Ron Planche
Carolynn Ioannoni
Steven Soos


28/05/2022 Tony Ducey
This 1 could be close and has more of a PC history than Niagara Centre but in the end I have Wayne Gates holding on here.
22/05/2022 The Watcher
The Mayor is Jim Diodati, not Michael.
I'm not prepared at this point to definitively say whether Gates will hang on or if Gale will wrestle the riding from him. Both Wayne Gates and Bob Gale are two very popular individuals in the riding, with Gale more popular in the Falls and Gates more popular outside of the Falls. Whatever the result it's going to be by a narrow thin margin. Does Jim's endorsement matter? In a race this tight, it just might and it all could all come down to something as simple as GOTV.
If Gates does hold on, he will likely be the only NDP left standing in Niagara. Right now I'm leaning toward Gale, but tomorrow I may lean toward Gates, and so on and so on. Definitely going to be one to watch on election night.
21/05/2022 R.O.
Doug Ford travelled to Niagara Falls for a surprise endorsement from Niagara Falls mayor Michael Diodati. This riding has been ndp since 2014 and Wayne Gates is relatively strong incumbent so tough to say what impact his endorsement will have. This riding had been pc in the 90’s and been a couple elections in the years since when they came very close such as 2011 and 2014 by election. So certainly possible we could see a close race once again this year. For Ford to travel to an ndp riding on the May long weekend does say something about the election this year.
16/05/2022 Garden City Watcher
People seem to forget that Gates took 47% of the vote here in 2014 when his party won just 23.75% of the vote province-wide. Sure, the dynamic is different in 2022, but Gates has much greater name recognition now and judging by signs, he has an incredible machine behind him. Projections that have him below 40% are just way off base. The Liberals are a non-starter here having lost vote share in each election since 2007, and taking less than 10% in 2018. There's no compelling reasons for these voters to abandon Gates in 2022.
07/05/2022 ME
The PC will sweep the entire Niagara region ...ie Niagara Centre will also go PC...
28/04/22 WesternLeftist
This will be a close one. Incumbent Wayne Gates is one of the few remaining old-school, blue-collar populist NDPers. PCs have nominated regional councillor Bob Gale. It's not really a naturally NDP-leaning seat, but Gates has a good record and I think will hang on due to his personal popularity.
14/04/22 A.S.
One might cynically say that Wayne Gates is looking like the colourful last stand for old-school lunchbucket Dipperism before all of that goes down the woke toilet--well, good for him. (And his post-byelection reelection in '14 was a preview of '18 in how it was utter Lib collapse that propelled Gates from marginality to safety.) Though let's not forget that even in defeat, the PCs actually did marginally better in '18 than their federal counterparts did in victory in '19 (but not '21). That is, if they spot a gap (or if Gates retires), they're determined to go for this one and push the NDP and the rest over the falls in a barrel--otherwise, w/candidates like Bob Gale, they're definitely leaving it "bookmarked". And in the modern age of blue-collar Con realignment, the PC floor in Niagara Falls would now seem to be about 1/3 of the vote, so who's to blame them.
04/04/22 R.O.
Wayne Gates was first elected here in a 2014 by election which occurred months before the actual election that year so he has been re elected twice here. a riding which had been ndp once before in 1990 but not seen as a typical ndp riding. Seems to be a reasonably strong incumbent which might explain his personal appeal here. new pc candidate this election is Bob Gale who is a regional councillor in Niagara so the pc’s are still running a serious campaign here. new liberal candidate is Ashley Waters. Cpc riding federally despite the fact it often swings and mp Tony Baldinelli isn’t that well known but doesn’t mean a lot provincially. One of only 3 cpc ridings the ford pc’s did not win in 2018 ( Essex , Oshawa and Niagara Falls ) all went ndp that year.
04/06/21 Matthew Chambers
Don't mess with the moustache lol. Seriously though I expect Wayne Gates to hold this seat for the NDP.

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