Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Beaches-East York

Prediction Changed
2022-05-23 22:50:00

Constituency Profile



Dupuis, Kate

Ferguson, John

Garvie, Drew

Kennedy, Angela

Manay, Abhijeet

Mcmahon, Mary-Margaret

Ring, Joe

Roney, Stephen

Yazdanfar, Bahman

Rima Berns-Mcgown

Population (2016):

Population (2011):107084

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

17,218 40.09%
5,982 13.93%
16,737 38.97%
2,329 5.42%
OTHERS 682 1.59%
Total Transposed 42,948
      Component Riding(s)

Beaches-East York
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Nathaniel Erskine-Smith **
Mae J. Nam
Nadirah Nazeer
Sean Manners
Deborah McKenzie

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Nathaniel Erskine-Smith
Matthew Kellway **
Bill Burrows
Randall Sach
James Sears
Roger Carter
Peter Surjanac


27/05/2022 Not Non-Partisan
Ha! Ive changed my mind. This is my home riding and I once thought that M-M McMahon would win. No more. She is personally popular but the province-wide Liberal campaign is a drag on her effort. Dupuis looks stronger now and has been growing.
27/05/2022 R.O.
Riding is mentioned in a citynews article where forum polled some key ridings. there numbers for Beaches East York are 31 Mary Margaret Mcmahon liberal , 27 Kate Dupuis ndp , 23 Angela Kennedy pc and 14 Abhijeet Manay green. So still appears to be a close one but forum has liberals leading in Toronto centre oddly. https://toronto.citynews.ca/2022/05/26/ontario-election-2022-key-ridings-to-watch/
25/05/2022 Jimmy
For what its worth, the part of the riding I drive through on a regular basis (north end East York), NDP sign outnumber Liberal signs by at least a 5 to 1 margin. There are even more PC signs that Liberal ones.
25/05/2022 Tony Ducey
This will be close and the NDP has held this riding since the 90's except for 2014-2018. That said the Liberal candidate here is a well known councilor and I think that means a close Liberal win here on June 2.
24/05/2022 SuburbanDad
NDP isn't campaigning as poorly as being made out. Few reasons Im going to pick the NDP against the polling which could keep the seat orange. First is if the PC reaches 18-20% which is well within target, that will keep votes on the right from migrating to the Liberals, so will over 10k previously NDP change their vote? Some, sure. Lots, maybe. All of them? Not sold on that. The Liberal candidate also isn't going to get the same recognition as the federal Liberal candidate does and recognition isn't always popularity. The NDP looks like they'll lose seats, but they wont lose all of them and I can see them keeping B-EY.
24/05/2022 Eric
Probably NDP by 8%. Not to say that the Liberals couldn't win, but if the NDP and Liberals are basically tied provincially, this stays NDP. Other posters are right in noting that this has been an NDP stronghold for almost 40 years, 1975 - 2014 (in looking at the Beaches riding). Maybe trending more Liberal at the federal level, since the defeat of Neil Young back in 1993, but as other posters have noted as well, can't always overlay provincial with federal results. Liberals would need to lead NDP by at least 5 provincially before this becomes TCTC.
18/05/2022 CD
This is a natural Liberal riding in that will return to form given polling seems to show Liberals eating the NDP's lunch in the 416.
27/04/22 LeftCoast
Retiring NDP incumbent. A high-profile former city councillor running for the Liberals, and a last-minute nominee without much of a resume for the NDP. This seat will return to the Liberals by a safe margin.
16/04/22 Not Non-Partisan
Anyone who thinks that Wong-Tam has coattails is dreaming in techicolour. A) she is two tidings away and B) she has no communality with Beaches -East York whatsoever.
10/04/22 R.O.
Still not sure about this one , despite being in Toronto its always been an elusive riding for the provincial liberals and has been ndp since the 70’s with the exception of 2014 election. It appears the new ndp candidate is Dr Kate Dupuis who has not ran before. The liberals seem to focusing a lot on finding personally likeable candidates in the hopes there able to generate a following in ridings that typically don’t support them. Mary Margaret Mcmahon had been a city councillor for this area so is well known but wasn’t running under a party banner those elections. I remember years ago the liberals went all out to win this riding when there was a by election in 2001 but Michael Prue managed to win and held it until his surprise loss in 2014. The ndp are likely to win less seats in Toronto and liberals likely to add new ridings but the beaches wasn’t exactly a fluke ndp win its almost always been ndp provincially .
The Coat tails of Wong Tam in Toronto Centre will help the NDP to hold this seat
07/04/22 Chris N
Since my prediction last year, the NDP incumbent Rima Berns-McGown decided not to run again. The party is set to nominate Dr. Kate Dupuis, a local doctor and volunteer. This is a fairly late nomination, less than two months before the election. Given the lack of an NDP incumbent, I give the edge to the McMahon and the Liberals. McMahon is definitely portraying herself as a green-thumb progressive, despite her fairly centrist or even right-of-centre voting record while on city council. Still, it could be a smart strategy, given that the more populist blue collar planks of the NDP could fall on deaf ears in a riding with large swathes of upper-middle class professional-managerial types.
29/03/22 A.S.
Yes, federal and provincial are different animals. However, even federally, BEY isn't the same riding it was in the 90s--the Libs might have been winning huge federal margins then, but it was still a top-tier riding for the federal NDP, both through representation up until '93 and targetability thereafter. Now, w/Beaches-style gentrification and everything, it's second-tier at best. That Lankin and then Prue were able to endure so long provincially might have been through an effective local machine, but ultimately it had a bit of assumed-Lib-left-proxy inertia about it and ran out of gas in '14. Had Wynne not imploded, '14's result might likelier have been a long-term portent than a one-time fluke--and given the narrow unexpectedness of his '14 victory and his party's overall abysmal results, it could even be argued that Arthur Potts *overachieved* in '18, under the circumstance (though he might also have collaterally benefited from a bum local Tory campaign). And MMM is a far less hackish standard-bearer than Potts, so if the Libs are playing to win, they chose well, particularly in what turned out to be an open-seat circumstance. Of course, the trouble for the Libs is that they're clawing their way back from the no-OPS basement and Del Duca's no Wynne, so it might turn out more like MMM's making the best of a bad situation...
21/03/22 PY
Let's face facts, the combination of her having had COVID last year (https://beachmetro.com/2021/04/05/beaches-east-york-mpp-rima-berns-mcgown-recovering-from-covid-19-variant/) and having to face a far greater political adversary in MMM likely spelled the end for Rima Berns-McGown's career as an MPP.
Unless the ONDP fields a star candidate (the CA, LA, EA, EDA president or even former councillor Sandra Bussin don't count), I don't hold out much hope for them here.
15/03/22 seasaw
I've said this a hundred times and will probably say it a hundred more times ' don't compare provincial elections with federal, they're two totally different animals '. The previous poster has referred to how the Liberal candidate won big here federally and based a prediction on that. Let's see, in the 1990's, Liberals won this riding by huge margins federally, but finished third in this riding provincially. In the 2000's they won big federally, but lost provincially. There are 8 ridings that the Liberals can win in 416, before they can win this one.
11/03/22 LB
NDP Incumbent Rima Berns-McGown has announced that she will not be running for re-election. With the incumbent advantage gone and the large margin of victory for the Liberals in the federal election, I see the Liberals easily taking this one back.
10/03/22 R.O.
Rima Berns Mcgown who was first elected in 2018 just announced that she isn?€™t running again. This riding has a lot of ndp history so really depends on who the new ndp candidate is if they can keep this seat or not. been more ndp favourable provincially than federally with only recent liberal win in 2014 when Arthur Potts managed a somewhat fluke win here.
25/06/21 Not Non-Partisan
Rima who? Completely invisible. MMM is highly regarded in the Beach and win here.
20/05/21 Chris N
This should be an exciting race. As of May 2021, the NDP incumbent Rima Berns McGown has not been re-nominated, but I'm assuming she is running. The Liberals nominated Mary Margaret McMahon, the former city councillor for the south end of the riding. As a councillor, McMahon had a sturdy coalition of support, including John Tory, local Liberal party machinery, and many neighbourhood associations. However, she is not a household name north of the Danforth. Another X factor is the PC support in the riding. The PC?s have no chance of winning the seat, but they perform well in the affluent northern edges of the riding, including Topham Park and Parkview Hills, which would likely eat into the Liberal vote more than the NDP.

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