Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-04-23 22:38:00

Constituency Profile



Fedeli, Vic

Jobin, Joe

Lashbrook, Michelle

Lougheed, Erika

Mcclocklin, Sean

Russell, Taylor

Vezina, Giacomo

Vrebosch, Tanya

Vic Fedeli

Population (2016):

Population (2011):75060

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

8,382 26.78%
13,085 41.81%
8,057 25.74%
1,188 3.80%
OTHERS 585 1.87%
Total Transposed 31,297
      Component Riding(s)

(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Anthony Rota **
Jordy Carr
Rob Boulet
Alex Gomm
Mark King

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Anthony Rota
Jay Aspin **
Kathleen Jodouin
Nicole Peltier


01/06/2022 NJam101
While Fedeli isn't playing as prominent of a role in cabinet that he once was, he will still win pretty big in Nipissing. No opponent will be close. It's kind of interesting because when Mike Harris was MPP here and Premier, he had strong Liberal candidates run against him who came fairly close.
29/05/2022 Tony Ducey
The one time political home of former premier Mike Harris is now home to Vic Fedeli, one of Ford's more well known ministers. I think he holds onto this seat on June 2.
28/04/22 WesternLeftist
The NDP were competitive here in 2018 against PC star Vic Fedeli. NDP have picked councillor Erika Lougheed as their candidate (in fact she was the first candidate selected by the party in the province). She'll run a spirited campaign, but Fedeli should be able to retain the seat, bar a province-level PC collapse.
23/04/22 Finn
I find it unlikely this riding goes anything but PC. Remember, yes, the PCs received less than half of the vote, but also remember, the NDP, who came second place, is supposed to drop even more than the PCs. Even if you want to make the argument that the PC vote will drop here, the NDP and Liberals could vote split this riding leading to Fedeli to win by an even larger margin than 2018.
23/04/22 AD
There doesn't really seem to be a good reason to think this won't be a relatively safe re-election for the PCs, in my opinion. It's not like polling is showing a vast sea change, and the LPO is at best going to just diminish NDP competition here.
21/04/22 Dr Bear
Adding to my (much) earlier post, the Liberal candidate, Tanya Vrebosch, is a well known city councillor, deputy mayor and part of a local political dynasty (her father is also a long time councillor). She will give Fideli a run for his money. As for NDP candidate Erika Lougheed, she is on council out in the townships, so not as much name recognition in the city proper. For that reason, I do not anticipate as much of an NDP/Liberal vote split. Smart money is still on Vic but I expect to see numbers closer to(and inverted from) the recent federal election.
(Side note: it is my prediction that in the subsequent rounds of elections, we are going to see both Fideli and Rota not offering again)
21/04/22 A.S.
A sign of how determinedly the OLP's seeking to assert its competitiveness and leave the nightmare of '18 behind them: that they've gone from what had been practically a paper campaign in '18 to North Bay's Deputy Mayor in '22 (and the daughter of a former provincial PC candidate, of all things). Which unless the Libs shine forth as an authentic government-in-waiting, is likelier to split the opposition on Fedeli's behalf--though there may be an element of sleeper vulnerability to Fedeli, judging from his low 40s '14 result and that he just missed majority in '18 (as opposed to him just *making* majority in '11).
14/03/22 R.O.
Vic Fedeli was first elected here in 2011 and increased his profile at queens park over the years. both the ndp and liberals running new candidates with municipal council backgrounds Erika Lougheed and Tanya Vrebosch. Which generated some publicity at the time they were announced but not much since. Not sure if there is any local provincial issues specific to the riding but did read North Bay finally got its new casino which had been delayed for years.
09/10/21 Dr Bear
While I am no longer living in this riding, I do still have many contacts here and it seems that Fedeli?€™s popularity is starting to wane. By no means am I suggesting he is likely to lose. I?€™m saying that we are more likely to see his support in the low 40?€™s. That could change if the other parties nominate strong candidates with serious name recognition.
14/08/21 EP
As long as Fedeli is on the ballot, I doubt the other parties has much of a chance. He may be an underwhelming minister (way too unsophisticated/simple-minded for finance, and frankly an unworldly economic and trade spokesperson for the province), but he is a good retail politician with strong local roots and street smart. Easy hold.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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