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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Northumberland-Peterborough South


Prediction Changed
2022-05-20 14:38:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Chalhoub, Joshua

Francis, Lisa

Head, Vanessa

Kawzenuk, Jeff

Mcarthur-Jackson, Kim

Piccini, David


Incumbent:
David Piccini

Population (2016):

112412
Population (2011):107840


2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)

DAVID PICCINI
27,38645.32%
JANA PAPUCKOSKI
14,80424.50%
LOU RINALDI *
14,60324.17%
JEFF WHEELDON
2,7404.53%
JOHN O'KEEFE
4250.70%
DEREK SHARP
2780.46%
PAUL CRAGG
1870.31%


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

20,584 41.52%
17,616 35.54%
9,156 18.47%
2,112 4.26%
OTHERS 103 0.21%
Total Transposed 49,571
      Component Riding(s)

Northumberland-Quinte West
(76.16% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Durham
(13.59% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Peterborough
(10.26% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions


2021 Federal Election Prediction


2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Philip Lawrence
27,38539.70%
Kim Rudd **
24,97736.20%
Mallory MacDonald
9,61513.90%
Jeff Wheeldon
5,5248.00%
Frank Vaughan
1,4602.10%


2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Kim Rudd
27,04342.50%
Adam Moulton
25,16539.60%
Russ Christianson
9,41114.80%
Patricia Sinnott
1,9903.10%


 

19/05/2022 Not Non-Partisan
184.146.146.200
The Libs and the NDP will trade some votes here but Piccini, who has distinguished himself in the Leg and Cabinet has a huge advantage.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
207.194.253.26
This is the type of seat that could come into contention if the PCs don't win a plurality, but at this point it looks unlikely. David Piccini returns for a second term.
17/04/22 A.S.
99.225.52.35
Let's not jump to Lib-favourable conclusions about the "Peterborough South" part; that's Peterborough *County*, as in the Otonabee/Asphodel stuff on the N side of Rice Lake, and what'd presently buoy the Libs here are the yuppies and retirees along the Hwy 401/2 corridor. But it's still the far side of 905-belt urbanity, and Piccini sounds a suitably "moderate" note for a seat still commutably close to that near side--and any federal class-of-'15 Lib seat that flipped back to the Cons in '19 should be considered a bridge too far, this time at least.
24/03/22 R.O.
24.146.13.249
David Piccini was first elected here in 2018 , riding also got new boundaries that year. Northumberland county mostly rural but Cobourg / Port Hope area growing in population leading to a somewhat competitive riding. The new liberal candidate is Jeff Kawzenuk and ndp yet to select a candidate. Likely pc hold
25/01/22 Finn
174.114.153.56
This may be a close riding, but the PCs should be able to hold on to this on Election Day. Heavy federal support and an easy win in 2018 should mean success of the PCs here.



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