Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-05-30 01:12:00

Constituency Profile



Bedford, Alicia

Crawford, Stephen

Crawford, Stephen Kenneth

Gohel, Alison

Mcnaughton, Maeve

Platt, Mark Fraser

Sousa, Bruno

Titov, Andrew

Ursomarzo, Silvio

Stephen Crawford

Population (2016):

Population (2011):119649

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

24,717 49.40%
18,921 37.81%
3,994 7.98%
1,887 3.77%
OTHERS 518 1.04%
Total Transposed 50,037
      Component Riding(s)

(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Anita Anand
Terence Young
Jerome Adamo
James Elwick
JD Meaney
Sushila Pereira

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

John Oliver
Terence Young **
Che Marville
David Doel


29/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Seeing a lot of thought this could go Liberal (Based upon the polling formula used by the to close to call website they have it going Liberal). These sites don't reflect what's going on in a riding and I have the seat going PC on June 2.
22/05/2022 CD
Hasty to call this as a PC riding. The provincial trends point to a slightly tightening race, and the fundamentals of this seat lean more Liberal than the 2018 result suggests. This one probably tilts to the Grits.
22/05/2022 Eric
May not be completely safe PC but strong likely PC. It looks like this prediction might have been based on doing a straight swing off the 2018 result. The big difference this year is that then-incumbent senior Liberal cabinet minister Kevin Flynn is no longer on the ballot. Oakville is more or less a bell weather both federally and provincially and right now the Ford PCs have a strong plurality. The federal riding did vote Liberal in 2006, and it also went for PC Otto Jelinek during the Trudeau years. Provincially it stayed with the PCs in 1985, but the last time it went Liberal when the province went blue was almost 100 years ago back in 1929 (Halton riding). Probably not going to break that streak of not sending a member as part of PC government in Queen's Park.
21/05/2022 seasaw
Unless the Liberals are in a position to form the government, this riding will stay PC. And this time, unless the polls change, will be a bigger victory for the PC's than the last
21/05/2022 R.O.
Havent seen anyone else predict Oakville as liberal I checked the ipolitics/mainstreet page and they have the pcs leading here by 8% over the liberals based on todays numbers. and the 2018 numbers were cause of Kevin Flynn a well known incumbent not Allison Gohel a rookie candidate. Seen no evidence that Del Duca is gaining ground in the suburbs based on polls I have seen which all have the pcs ahead . And Oakville has always been pc/cpc when they were in power except 2006 federally when Bonnie Brown a long time mp held on for 1 more term when liberals in opposition. Stephen Crawford is not a high profile mpp but still a good fit for this riding.
20/05/2022 KXS
Sometimes people give too much stock into riding projection sites like 338. As discussed below, it was close last time around because of the popularity of long time incumbent Kevin Flynn.
The Liberals need to be polling much better than what they currently are to win a seat like Oakville.
28/04/22 WesternLeftist
I could see this one going either way. Right now PC incumbent Stephen Crawford has a slight edge, but the Liberals will give him a run for his money.
14/04/22 A.S.
No Flynn is indeed the Libs' primary handicap this time, such that it is--however, rest assured that they do have *an* advantage through a generic yet clear affluent-professional-class inclination in that strategic-non-Tory direction: the SW GTA being like SW Greater London, Vince Cable/Ed Davey country, etc. Which is why if the OLP is looking to "restoration", well, why shouldn't they be looking to seats like this, Flynn or no Flynn? (And which is why "bellwether logic" only works when one views Ontario politics in strict binary terms, i.e. there's no way whatsoever that this territory would have gone NDP in 1990. However, a Lib win wouldn't be out of the question if we're looking at a "stop Ford" NDP/Lib coalition.)
25/03/22 R.O.
Stephen Crawford was first elected here in 2018 when he beat liberal mpp Kevin Flynn. Fact he ran again likely why the riding stayed so close during such a bad election for the liberals. new liberal candidate is Alison Gohel who lacks the same profile that he had. Ndp yet to nominate a candidate but typically not been a factor in this suburban riding. Which has been pc and liberal over the years.
03/03/22 seasaw
Unless the NDP or the Liberals are in a position to form the government, this riding will stay blue and I wouldn?€™t be surprised if Mr Crawford wins by a much bigger margin than the last time. These are the reasons: 1. The riding: ever since the dawn of times, this riding has been pretty much bellwether, the party that has won the riding has formed the government, the only exception was in 1990, when the PC candidate beat the Liberal incumbent by only 100 votes, with the PC?€™s leading in polls, it?€™s safe to say that the riding will stay blue. 2. The candidates, Stephen Crawford has done a good job as an MPP, last time he was running against an equally good MPP and won, this time the Liberal candidate isn?€™t very well known. So advantage blue. 3. The leaders, the last time, a lot of people were afraid of Doug Ford as premier, but now though still not all that popular, no one is scared of him being premier, he?€™s now more popular than he was back then, the Liberal leader, has no profile. Conclusion: PC hold for now.
16/11/21 Mr. Voter
The previous predictions omit one important fact: former MPP/Labour Minister Kevin Flynn isn't running again. In past elections, his personal popularity attracted many votes, and 2018 was no exception despite the Liberal meltdown. PC MPP Stephen Crawford would have won by an even higher margin last time otherwise. Instead of Flynn in 2022, the Liberals are running a candidate with little name recognition compared to incumbent MPP Crawford. So he has the advantage this time around.
Furthermore, according to recent polls, Progressive Conservative support remains higher than the Liberals in Ontario, particularly in the 905 Region (41% to 29% in the October Leger Post-Media poll).
Though there are months to go and lots could change in that time, I predict that the PC's will win Oakville again.
19/06/21 EP
The Liberals may or may not have a come back, may or may not be stuck at third place, but I don't think any objective observers would predict them to be stuck at 8 seats. Even in worst case scenario, they are going to pick up a handful. Kevin Flynn, a long serving but relatively low profile cabinet minister, managed to secure the second highest percentage among all the defeated Liberals. This ought to be a must win for them if they are to win even 15 or 20 seats.
18/06/21 JW
Despite winning all four seats in Halton Region, Ford did not elevate a single Halton MPP to his cabinet. (Understandably, they are all pretty average/unimpressive... but you figure there would be a token presence for the region) I suspect if Ford is back in as Premier, most of the four Halton MPPs will be back in with him. If Ford is out, none will buck the trend.
12/05/21 Chris N
Despite the Liberal implosion in 2018, the Liberals faced a relatively respectably second in Oakville. As noted in the 2018 prediction thread, I can see a lot of upper-crust Oakville residents being relatively tepid towards the populist Ford brand of conservativism. With the Conservatives taking a hit in recent polls, and a very low NDP presence in the riding, this will likely be one of the first ridings to turn red if the polls continue to rise for the Liberals.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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