Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-05-19 00:29:00

Constituency Profile



Down, Alex

Dunham, Katarina

Forsythe, Dave

French, Jennifer

Janssen, Daryl

Mosca, Catherine

Jennifer French

Population (2016):

Population (2011):125771

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

9,454 19.46%
15,323 31.53%
21,850 44.96%
1,910 3.93%
OTHERS 58 0.12%
Total Transposed 48,594
      Component Riding(s)

(83.91% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

(16.09% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Colin Carrie **
Shailene Panylo
Afroza Hossain
Jovannah Ramsden
Eric Mackenzie
Jeff Tomlinson

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Colin Carrie **
Mary Fowler
Tito-Dante Marimpietri
Michael Dempsey
David Gershuny


31/05/2022 Chris N
After my "Too Close to Call" prediction last year, I now have this riding as a PC pick-up. In recent weeks, there has been commentary about the Ford PC's picking up momentum in blue-collar-ish ridings across the province, peeling votes away from the NDP. Based on the PC's close finish in 2018, and a drop in NDP polling compared to 2018, I think the PCs win The Shwa come Thursday.
29/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Another riding I thought would stay NDP before I began my research into the riding. While the NDP does have the incumbent's advantage here the riding does have some PC history. It's also Conservative federally. So much like neighboring Ajax which I have going Liberal I have this riding switching parties as well in a close battle.
27/05/2022 R.O.
Im still not entirely sure about Oshawa. This had been a safe pc riding in the 90s when Jerry Ouellette mpp and he was also a cabinet minister. Then it started to get closer when the ndp started to do better and targeted the riding heavily. And then the disasterous 2014 election for the pcs finally allowed for the ndp to win it. but the pcs are doing much better in the 905 than that election and Ford popular with more average working class folks who live in places like Oshawa. Whats odd is almost no party leaders have been to Oshawa so far I dont believe Horwath has been here which seems odd as often in past elections shed come here often so perhaps there more confident or just more focused on other seats. Pc candidate Alex Down isnt that well known when compared to Jennifer French the ndp incumbent. And unclear if liberals focusing any effort in this riding at all, seem to be only worried about Ajax and Durham seats. But this seat was fairly close in 2018 so the ndp cant afford to lose much support if the pcs hold there past vote.
23/05/2022 jeff316
Anyone that's moving from Toronto to Oshawa-proper is open to voting NDP and is probably half-happy to live in a riding where the NDP is competitive. (Like A.S. implies, if you're scared by the socialists, you're moving to the outer areas or parts of Durham.) That being said, it only takes a few votes to shift French out of her seat, and when you look at 1. The pocketbook money give-aways thrown to the electorate by the Ford government, 2. The focus on industrial policy populism pushed by the PCs, and 3. The Liberals doing much better (and the NDP much worse) on a broad scale, the amount of happy-to-be-NDP new Oshawanagians are just not sufficient to keep the NDP on top here.
07/05/2022 SuburbanDad
At posting this riding is TCTC but its a prediction site and this riding should be a real battle.
Significant NDP resources will be dedicated into this riding because its not a solid hold right now and that's not a good sign for a team that needs to be adding ridings in order to form government.
OPC will view this riding as a potential gain that is very winnable for them and their opposition knows it. Ford has a lot of kitchen table policies that are popular here.
There's also a little wild card of demographic change as people left Toronto and been buying houses up in the riding, this may alter some polling station outcomes.
The NDP will not lose this riding without a heck of a fight and early appearances are both contending parties local campaigns have gotten their dander up for a real tussle. If the OPC wins, it will be about 1k vote difference, Ford may have just have done enough to close the gap.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
This was a close call last time for incumbent NDPer Jennifer French. I do think that with the PCs nominating a lower-profile candidate this time, they'll narrowly fall short once more.
15/04/22 A.S.
It may very well be that '14 was a kind of Indian summer for blue-collar Dipperism in Oshawa, and '18 was only deferring the inevitable--that is, unless Jen French learned from her unforeseen scare that year. But re "wealthy GTA newcomers": actually, the present Oshawa riding is mostly built out, and the new development serving said newcomers is mainly in Durham riding. Plus, in a post-'18 climate, you can't assume that newcomers to *this* riding will automatically default to a non-viable Lib option--heck, when it comes to "Old Oshawa", you might instead find an influx of Millennial economic refugees from the 416, like an eastern pendant to Hamilton Centre right down to the hipster-Dipper amenability. That is, don't discount the longer-term sleeper likelihood of things gentrifying *leftward* in Oshawa...
04/04/22 Stevo
Oshawa has seen so much inward migration from the GTA since the 2018 election and the impact of this on the voting demographics can't be underestimated. At this point I think the most likely outcome is that the PCs take this in a tight race as the rightward realignment of the working class continues. The NDP can't count on the wealthy GTA newcomers to replace those lost working class voters, since the newcomers will mostly go Liberal.
31/03/22 KXS
This was a close one in 2018 and it will be close again this year. But I think the NDP will take it.
The NDP has an advantage because they have a popular incumbent and the PCs did not field a strong candidate.
The PCs are making a play for Durham region after scrapping tolls on the 412, but the NDP also supports that policy so I don't think it moves the needle in any way.
10/03/22 R.O.
Jennifer French was first elected here in 2014 , first time ndp had won in Oshawa since 1990. That election also a really bad one for pc?€™s in the 905 area around Toronto. And so can understand why riding suddenly so close in 2018 despite the fact pc candidate was not an incumbent or well known. Is a new pc candidate this election Alex Down and liberals running Catherine Mosca. I?€™d expect another close race here
26/02/22 QuebecCityOliver
My wife's hometown - NDP vs PCs - have to favour Jennifer here.
To the Hammer - Quebec City is very nice. However, the County is a popular retirement place and is not so blue-collar.
02/12/21 The Lobster
This is probably #1 on the PC pickup list. The gap between NDP and PCs reduced significantly between 2014 and 2018, despite a small shift *towards* the NDP (even vis-??-vis the PCs) province-wide. This is partially because the Liberal vote collapsed, but it's not only because of that: Conservative parties are becoming more working class, making ridings like this (and Niagara Centre, Essex, and St. Catharine's for that matter) in play, and ridings like Sault Ste. Marie and Kenora--Rainy River becoming safer and safer for the PCs.
PCs can't crack open the champagne. Strategic voters will know NDP is their choice. But expect the PCs to invest heavily in ridings like this one because it will give them more room to lose in 416/Peel/Ottawa and because, even though the Liberals will be a distant third here, they will likely be doing less abominably than they did in 2018.
04/07/21 Chris N
To my knowledge, this is only one of two riding last election where the
NDP vote went down compared to 2014. This can be attributed to the PC's huge
growth in support in the 905, which overwhelmingly ate into the Liberal
vote, but as seen in Oshawa, stole some NDP votes too. If an election were
held today, I'd give a slight edge to the NDP, but I anticipate the PCs to
be looking at this riding as a pick-up in 2022.
26/06/21 Hammer
I grew up in the 'shaw and then moved to the hammer (any suggestions to spend my retirement years; a little less blue collar perhaps). Even before Horwath turned medium rust belt cities into a Cons vs NDP two party race; Oshawa was a two party race. Now that French has established herself, its between her and the Conservative candidate; the Liberals will be a non factor. I'm giving her the edge because the Conservative gov't really hasn't given suburban voters in Durham, Peel or York any real reason to vote for them; especially in Peel or Oshawa.

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