Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Ottawa Centre

Prediction Changed
2022-06-02 01:54:00

Constituency Profile



Adornato, Marc

Armstrong, Glen

Bertrand, Shelby

Borcsok, Thomas

Gibbs, Katie

Harden, Joel

Healey, Scott

Rachlis, Josh

Ryan, Stuart

Samuels, Raymond

Joel Harden

Population (2016):

Population (2011):113619

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

27,689 52.02%
9,678 18.18%
10,894 20.47%
4,163 7.82%
OTHERS 808 1.52%
Total Transposed 53,232
      Component Riding(s)

Ottawa Centre
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Catherine McKenna **
Emilie Taman
Carol Clemenhagen
Angela Keller-Herzog
Merylee Sevilla
Coreen Corcoran
Shelby Bertrand
Marie-Chantal Leriche
Chris G Jones
Stuart Ryan
Giang Ha Thu Vo

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Catherine Mary McKenna
Paul Dewar **
Damian Konstantinakos
Tom Milroy
Dean T. Harris
Conrad Lukawski
John Andrew Omowole Akpata
Stuart Ryan


01/06/2022 Danny
Call this one for the ONDP. The Liberals simply do not have the votes to steal ridings like this. Harden has built a real machine here. He's distinguished himself during the trucker occupation, recent power-outs, LRT investigation. He's got the backing of the local councillors; meanwhile, prominent federal Liberals look to be sitting this out. Gibbs is a good candidate but she'd have better luck in one of the Nepean ridings.
30/05/2022 Matt B.
A strong NDP incumbent and polling indicates that this one is going orange again. Also, the signage for Harden in this riding is quite strong on residential properties.
30/05/2022 Kanata Carleton Voter
Joel Harden will win this with a bit of room. He’s been an activist MPP in the best sense of the word, is a proactive, positive, presence in the riding and the broader community and he’s a fighter who gets results.
29/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Probably will be the most interesting of the Ottawa ridings on June 2 but I still think NDPer Joel Harden will keep this seat in the NDP column.
27/05/2022 Dr Bear
I am of the opinion that incumbent advantage and a general “meh” attitude by voters will result in the NDP holding the seat. Soft liberal voters won’t be running out to cast a ballot, and that’ll cost them this seat.
23/05/2022 Eric
I am going to say lean NDP based on incumbency advantage and provincial polling trends as of the last full week of May, showing on average that the gap between the Liberals and NDP has basically evaporated (average of polls on wiki taken last 7 days) ... if the Liberals opened it up a bit more, maybe 5 points over the NDP provincially, then it might be TCTC ... if Liberals north of 30, probable flip, but right now, stays orange.
23/05/2022 Wildcat49xx
I think liberals will gain back ottawa centre by a percentage of votes because people are fed up with the polarizing politics from the left and right. Plus many businesses are upset over things that happened during the occupation and pandemic. Plus the liberals have some ideas that really attract voters. And the last thing struggling businesses need is a 20 $ an hour minimum wage.
18/05/2022 R.O.
Horwath is spending the day campaigning in Eastern Ontario but visiting places like Smiths Falls and Ottawa West Nepean both of which have never been ndp provincially. When this riding went liberal in the 90’s Dalton Mcguinty was liberal leader and from Ottawa. That same dynamic isn’t in play for the liberals anymore although they did well in the 2 ottawa by elections that occurred in 2020 just before covid. This riding has a long ndp history and Joel Harden now the incumbent, the liberal Katie Gibbs doesn’t seem to be as high profile as other liberals who held the seat like Yasir Naqvi or Catherine Mckenna.
06/05/2022 SarahMitts
This is an interesting riding that could be very close on election night. It will be a race between two academics, with both Mr Harden of the NDP and Ms Gibbs of the Liberals having doctorate degrees. I am surprised the Liberals did not nominate a more experienced, bilingual, and local candidate with deep roots in the NCR, but Ms Gibbs should have the benefit of federal politicians offering to campaign with her (especially the PM).
02/05/2022 cal
To suggest Joel is anything but popular is wishful thinking. His constituency office has been really effective and will help. How he loses over 8,000 votes seems hard to envision. Let's not lose sight of the NDP throwing every resource they have to hold this.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
This will be a close one. Katie Gibbs is a great candidate for the Liberals. Joel Harden is a popular and effective representative. He is among, if not thee, most openly socialist members of the NDP. I think he got a huge bump from his handling of the convoy protests, and will manage to narrowly hold on.
Katie Gibbs will take this riding and probably without much difficulty. Joel Harden has not been a very good MPP and has very controversial and not so acceptable views. So, it shouldn’t be hard for Gibbs to unseat one of the least liked members of Ontario legislature
23/04/22 Colin O'Neal
I'm leaning towards an NDP hold in Ottawa Centre. Harden has a strong personal brand, which was strengthened with his community organizing efforts during the Convoy protests. Ottawa Centre, like many other urban Ontario ridings, often have a provincial-federal split where the MP is a Liberal but the MPP is NDP. I think the Liberals put on a good fight but Harden wins by a nose.
17/04/22 A.S.
Let's not get hasty in simplistically labelling OC a "naturally" Liberal riding; it's a promiscuously-progressive riding that's prone to defaulting Liberal due to the Libs being more often than not perceived as a "party of power". When it goes NDP, it's due to cracks in or challenges to that party-of-power facade; when it reverts to Lib, it's when the NDP is sideswiped or otherwise humiliated. And it's hard to tell whether the Libs are in sufficient state to assert clear equilibrium-tipping advantage this time, or the NDP headed for Mulcair-scale marginalization. I agree that Yasir Naqvi carried an advantage at least as personal as it was partisan (his first race, before he was a known quantity as MPP, was a close shave vs the NDP, but his advantage grew bigger in subsequent elections); and while on paper the Libs going the ex-Green "Jenica Atwin" route w/their candidate seems sensible, it's not clear whether that's sufficient for a party clawing its way back from non-OPS. Conversely, one *could* stigmatize Harden for being on the left side of the ONDP caucus--a regional left-pendant to Merrilee Fullerton, perhaps--though that hasn't necessarily been a fatal stigma in practice...
09/04/22 J.F. Breton
Avec la remont?©e des Lib?©raux, des circonscriptions traditionnellement lib?©rales reviendront dans le giron, particuli?¨rement ?  Toronto, dans l'Est et dans le Nord. Ottawa Centre fait partie de celles-l? . D'ailleurs, les agr?©gateurs de sondages la placent dans la colonne des gains lib?©raux.
02/04/22 AD
I second the earlier assessment and prediction for Liberals, and don't really have much to add to it. This just fits the tide of what we're seeing in polling compared to last election.
10/03/22 R.O.
Joel Harden was first elected here in 2018 which was the first time the ndp had won a seat in eastern Ontario since 1990. Although this riding does have a history of being ndp federally and had been ndp provincially for a long period in the 70?˘â‚¬â„˘s and 80?˘â‚¬â„˘s. the new liberal candidate is Katie Gibbs as former mpp Yasor Naqvi is now the mp. Scott Healey is new pc candidate but never much of a factor in the riding.
01/03/22 Finn
I'm not convinced the NDP will be able to hold on to this riding. This riding has a history of going Liberal more than NDP, and the NDP winning this race in 2018 can be attributed to the collapse of the Liberals and the rise of the NDP province wide. With the Liberals looking at the very least competent this year, and with the NDP not having the support they had in 2018, I would not be surprised if the Liberals took this seat back. Expect this to be a very close race.
08/10/21 Dr Bear
The former Liberal MPP is now the local MP, so any advantage there is gone. The Liberals will be too busy trying to reestablish themselves elsewhere to focus too much of their limited resources on this seat. Unless the NDP tank or the LPO looks to form a majority government, then this seat is safely in NDP hands.

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