Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022


Prediction Changed
2022-05-31 12:30:00

Constituency Profile



Deck, Jen

Dempsey, Greg

Gibson, Robert

Marazzo, Tom

Quinnell, Rebecca

Smith, Dave

Dave Smith

Population (2016):

Population (2011):115264

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

24,413 45.71%
16,407 30.72%
9,666 18.10%
2,292 4.29%
OTHERS 635 1.19%
Total Transposed 53,414
      Component Riding(s)

(93.59% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
(6.41% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Maryam Monsef **
Michael Skinner
Candace Shaw
Andrew MacGregor
Alexander Murphy
Robert M Bowers
Ken Ranney

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Maryam Monsef
Michael Skinner
Dave Nickle
Doug Mason
Toban Leckie


29/05/2022 Tony Ducey
The Peterborough area has been a bit of a bellwether for a long time both provincially and federally. I think that happens again here in 2022 provincially nd Dave Smith will be re-elected.
29/05/2022 PTBO Pundit
I'm holding hard to my Liberal Prediction. If there was ever a campaign in this riding that could beat the bell-weather trend, it might be the Dempsey Campaign.
Also, a recent odd development on social media in this riding.... There seems to be a few controversies brewing re. the local NDP campaign cranking out extremely suspect polling data.... Second place is a stretch and barely plausible at best... but they are telling their supporters they are in first?! Get real.
28/05/2022 R.O.
Another poll for Peterborough , Riding is mentioned in an article from citynews where forum polled some key ridings , there numbers for Peterborough are 41 pc Dave Smith to 32 Greg Dempsey liberal but doesn’t mention ndp numbers. but would appear riding is staying pc. https://toronto.citynews.ca/2022/05/26/ontario-election-2022-key-ridings-to-watch/
28/05/2022 Ricardamundo
With the reputation of Peterborough taking a beating over the lunatic fringe making headlines over their crass behaviour, any clear-thinking citizen of Peterborough will want to address this embarrassment by voting out the PC incumbent after their tacit endorsement of the Ottawa occupation and the local chapter of the trucker miscreants. Jeff Leal represented the riding effectively for years and is a familiar face locally. Liberals will prevail here. With luck, the miscreants will fade away into the nearest failing hamburger joint.
26/05/2022 R.O.
There is a mainstreet riding poll for Peterborough but I can’t seem to find it was mentioned in another article that I saw. It appeared to show a close race between pc mpp Dave Smith and liberal candidate. But province wide there is polls showing the pc’s leading the liberals by 10 points and were into day 8 of advance voting. Perhaps Greg Dempsey is a better candidate than first though but still too much to overcome in such a bellwether riding that typically follows provincial trends. I personally felt the pc’s would improve on there 2018 numbers here as there has been some strong conservative wins in Peterborough in years past federally and provincially. Ford is yet to campaign here but Del Duca and Horwath have each made campaign stops in the city.
23/05/2022 Wildcat49xx
Liberals could win this riding back because of the vote splitting on the right.And they are offering 1$ transit fares, protection of their water ways and parks.
22/05/2022 CD
The Liberals are up about 10% province-wide versus 2018. That should too them over the edge here. NDP and PC numbers are down compared to 2018 enough for the Liberals to nab this one.
19/05/2022 Not Non-Partisan
PC vote up. NDP vote down. This is a cake walk for Smith.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
The ultimate bellwether seat. I think the PCs will end up with the most seats, and I think Dave Smith will hold on in Peterborough.
17/04/22 A.S.
Ah, even Monsef's comeuppance hasn't doused the bellwether fixation. Yet that hasn't stopped people predicting Liberal here--which given the state of the provincial party, would almost certainly contradict that bellwether streak, even if it makes logical sense *why* the Libs would be electable here even against the grain of provincewide PC status quo (as leading party, even if not as majority party). And remember that if Jeff Leal weren't running in '18, judging from patterns elsewhere the Libs could have lost something like half of their vote--and not necessarily all on behalf of the NDP, either. And speaking of the NDP, they haven't exactly had a long-term horrible record in Peterborough even when it comes to candidate profile (and this *was* the first federal seat for the "New Party" in 1960), so to delete them from the equation after '18's close call seems a bit brash. Fact is, whether on behalf of Liberal or NDP, Peterborough's viable for bellwether-breaking--much as it proved to be going the *other* political direction in '21.
16/04/22 PTBO Pundit
I have this riding ever so slightly leaning Liberal. The Liberals have an unusually well received candidate this time around in Greg Dempsey.
The incumbent PC candidate Dave Smith is taking fire even from the PC base in the local letters to the editor.
I think the anti vax / anti lockdown candidate is going to play spoiler and take a lot of natural tory votes this time around. NDP and Green campaigns are very late finding candidates and that is likely because Dempsey has some legit left of center credentials. No one wants to run against him from the left.
Also one of Smith's top campaigners was just forced to quit the local police board over an embarrassing canvassing video. They know things aren't going well in this riding and it shows.
So as long as Del Duca keeps the polls reasonably close and doesn't tank mid campaign, I'd say Liberals have a slight edge here.
02/04/22 Stevo
Well, the ultimate bellwether failed in the 2021 federal election. I regard it as a blip in Peterborough's impeccable record of predicting the winner, and down to the high profile (in a bad way) of Maryam Monsef. Whichever party wins this provincial vote is still almost certain to win this seat, and at this point the odds favour the PCs.
02/04/22 AD
Assuming this isn't one of those awful elections where hardly anything changes, this riding I feel has a lot pushing it away from PC control. Population growth and changes coupled with a more competent liberal party are what really comes to mind.
30/03/22 R.O.
Riding has a long history of being a swing riding provincially although did go against the tide federally when Michelle Ferreri got elected as a conservative. Dave Smith first elected here in 2018 in a close race vs ndp candidate and liberal mpp Jeff Leal. Its unclear who the ndp are running here and a surprise there waiting so late to find someone. New liberal candidate is Greg Dempsey . the city of Peterborough dominates the riding despite being geographically large riding. Not aware of any local issues here that would affect the race. The ndp have rarely ran high profile candidates here so unless there is a star ndp or green candidate waiting to announce don’t see how this one does not stay pc.
I see the Liberals picking up this riding by a slim margin of votes because their are problems with the students in regards to the OSAP problems.
Plus, many people looking for work, and complaining about the lack of decent jobs
21/02/22 Andy49
I have a feeling once the liberals get their Candidate talking to the media,liberal voters will respond.
I think some people in the riding are fed up with thefwdy ontario govt has handledthe pandemic,and other things
21/01/22 Laurence Putnam
Notwithstanding the federal Liberal defeat, I think this is still a pretty reliable bellwether. Monsef was defeated because she, personally, had become a national embarrassment and the people of Peterborough quite understandably weren't willing to tolerate it any more.
Libs ought to be in the running here, but they have so far to climb back from the 2018 rout that I would be willing to bet the Tories are safe for one more go around here.
27/09/21 Sam
Depending on your definition of a bellwether that streak has already been broken federally, but provincially this is still a good indicator, though Jeff Leal did better than provinical numbers might have had him do. Too close to call is the only right call until we get further information.
27/08/21 therealbatman
A reliable swing riding to be sure, but with the NDP and Liberals so close in the polls, it will be difficult for Smith to lose here. It would take a real surge by one opposition party and a collapse by the other to take it.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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