Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2022

Sault Ste. Marie

Prediction Changed
2022-05-02 11:29:00

Constituency Profile



Gilfillan, Keagan

Hancock, Liam

Mccleave-Kennedy, Michele

Pankhurst, S.

Romano, Ross

Sayers, Naomi

Ross Romano

Population (2016):

Population (2011):73370

2018 Election Result: (Prediction Page)


2014 Election Result:
(Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton)

17,490 58.53%
3,704 12.39%
7,610 25.47%
965 3.23%
OTHERS 115 0.38%
Total Transposed 29,884
      Component Riding(s)

Sault Ste. Marie
(100.00% of voters in new riding)
2014/2011/2007 Predictions

2021 Federal Election Prediction

2019 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Terry Sheehan **
Sonny Spina
Sara McCleary
Geo McLean
Amy Zuccato

2015 Federal Election Result: (Prediction)

Terry Sheehan
Bryan Hayes **
Skip Morrison
Kara Flannigan
Mike Taffarel


01/06/2022 NJam101
Ross Romano is in cabinet and will win again and it won't be as close as in 2018. The Sault can sometimes show us surprises and buck trends but I don't think that it will happen this time.
Interesting fact: Both Sault Ste Marie and Timmins are both their own ridings and consist of the boundaries of their city limits.
29/05/2022 Tony Ducey
Romano's first win in a 2017 by-election was a sign of things to come in Ontario with the PC's becoming government in 2018. Since then his win in 2018 was a bit close. He has the same NDP opponent in 2022 so I expect another close race but Romano should win.
26/05/2022 Richtheo
Im surprised that you called Sault Ste Marie for the Tories so early considering that Romano won by just over 1%. You have yet to call mushkeguk-james where the NDP won by 21 points in 2018. The NDP won Sudbury by a margin of 25% and again Timmins where the NDP incumbent has been there since 1990 and won last election by 25%. Dont past elections results count for something when you call a riding?
24/05/2022 CRoss
PC support for mining initiatives, as well as blue collar support increasing for PC across Ontario, bodes well for Romano in Sault Ste. Marie. Many Liberal voters will sit on their hands without a viable candidate, with some of the more centrist ones quietly shifting their support to Romano. Folks in the Soo are pragmatic and have more to gain from a sitting minister than from an MPP sitting outside of government.
23/05/2022 jeff316
When grumpy anti-PC voters tell you that all the NDP and Liberals had to do was get their act together and co-ordinate their slates, you can point to Salt Ste. Marie as what would have happened. That's because Romano is going to beat the NDP even with the Liberals not having a candidate. Let's be honest here - if you were one of the 9 percent of voters in the Soo that voted Liberal in 2018, you were pretty much doing whatever you could to not vote NDP. Lots of that vote will go Green. With Dougie not so scary anymore, some of that vote will go PC, as will parts of the NDP vote. With the NDP not in the running to win province-wide, some of their voters will go Green. Romano will have to work hard, but it won't be a nail-biter like last time.
12/05/2022 Jean Larose
Without a Liberal candidate, anti-Con votes should coalesce around McCleave-Kennedy, who came within 415 votes of winning last time. Romano should be doorknocking like crazy to avoid losing his seat. Possible NDP pickup, depending on where Liberals go and whether Greens and others vote strategically for McCleave-Kennedy.
29/04/2022 R.O.
Should be noted the liberals still dont have a candidate here , was a perspective candidate Naomi Sayers a local first nations women who is also a lawyer. You think she would have been what they were looking for but had a colourful past and had been an exotic dancer and lawyer for various sex trade worker causes and appears to have not made it thru the vetting process. So its unclear who the liberals will run here. polls show the pcs doing better up north and Ross Romano well known by now so this should be a pc riding. It was almost a cpc riding federally despite the liberal mp being well liked and in government.
28/04/22 LeftCoast
Ross Romano will be returned. The NDP should be targeting this seat but likely don't have the organizational strength to take it.
21/04/22 A.S.
It isn't just incumbency (and cabinet position) that would buoy the Tories, but a broader Con strategy that targets the North as a "final frontier" coupled with blue-collar rightward trending: the Soo and Kenora-Rainy River of a piece with once-Dem strongholds such as the Upper Peninsula and Iron Range Minnesota (and federally, the Cons came within a point of winning the Soo in '21). Of course, Romano's provincial wins to date may be classified as "conditional" rather than something heartfelt and all-in, and his tenure in cabinet's been rocky (particularly when he was in charge of Colleges & Universities), so I wouldn't deny him vulnerability. Though Ford Nation and working-class rightward drift's made its mark: it used to be that the blue-collar W side of the Soo was the NDP part of town, and the white-collar E side was the "non-NDP" part, but now there's greater parity among the halves...
02/04/22 AD
A tough race that I think will be held by PC thanks to incumbency advantage and a lack of momentum in the NDP, especially with the same candidates in play for these two parties. LPO doesn't feel relevant.
28/03/22 R.O.
Ross Romano first elected here in a 2017 by election which had been a surprise as riding hadn’t been pc for a long time. But now that he is a high profile incumbent in a riding that typically favours well known candidates. Michelle McCleave Kennedy is running again for the ndp , she came a close second last time but unlikely ndp does better than last election. Its unclear who the liberals plan to run here.
15/10/21 Cal MacKinnon
The NDP have wind in their sails and the ground game here for the NDP I has been ready for this race since the morning after the last election. I doubt it?€™s all that close.
16/05/21 Chris N
This will be an interesting race. The PC incumbent is a cabinet minister so he has gained a high profile. However, he won his last two races by a nose. The PCs have also been hit by a lot of criticism in the region with the recent cuts to Laurentian University. Expect this to be a close one.

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Ontario Provincial Election - 2022
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