British Columbia Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Nelson-Creston

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:
Candidates:
Unity Party
COX, Stephen
New Democratic Party
EVANS, Corky
Marijuana Party
LOEHNDORF, Dan
Green Party
MCCRORY, Colleen
Liberal Party
SUFFREDINE, Blair F.
Incumbent:
  Nelson-Creston
Corky Evans

Previous Result (redistribution):
620731.69%
868844.35%
214410.95%
PDA
770.39%
207310.58%
Previous Result (old ridings):
Nelson-Creston
643431.47%
917944.90%
211410.34%
PDA
00.00%
Census 1996:
Population:45100
Dev. from Quota:-4.34%
Area (km2):22878
Pop Density:1.97

Surrounding Ridings:
Columbia River-Revelstoke
East Kooteney
Okanagan-Vernon
West Kootenay-Boundary

Submissions
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20/02/01 Bernard Schulmann Email: bernard.schulmann@lillonet.org
This could go either NDP or Liberal. Corky Evans has certainly risen in stature, the question is can he rise that far above his party that is so hated by most BCers?
23/02/01 DMB Email:dennisbaher@netscape.net
This one could be interesting on election night - there was a very srong green party vote in 1996 and the Green are running MCCory this time who is well known beyond the borders of the riding - if people beleive that the NDP are finished they just might be tempted to vote for the Greens which opens up the possibility of a three way race with any one of the parties coming up the middle in a split vote - plus some of you probably know what famous crop will probably be harvested around election time and that could also created some interested last minute ballot box "X"
22/03/01 Interested Voter Email:
Well, once again with today's Ipsos-Reid projecting a 63-20 lead for the BC Libs, no matter how folksy Corky may be, it will be difficult to salvage this one too. If the provincial trend of 1/3 of '96 NDP voters going Liberal sticks, Corky will lose by 3,000 votes. Please note that the Greens actually came in 3rd last time with 2,292 votes in this riding. Strong Green + No Reform - 1/3 NDP support = Liberal win. Looks like it's going to be a long time in the wilderness for the NDP.
22/03/01 kyle Email:kyle_jordanis@hotmail.com
The history of this riding flip flops back and forth in recent elections it could go NDP or Liberal,the green vote will be important here.
24/03/01 Andy Shadrack Email:
I teach politics for a living and have been active with the Green party since the 1993 Federal election. This was one of two constituencies where the Green party came third in 1996. In this instance 2,282 votes or 11.2%. This time the boundaries have changed to include Ymir and Salmo from Rossland-Trail and Yahk from East Kootenay, while losing one poll to the newly formed West-Kootenay-Boundary constituency. In the 2000 federal election the Green Party came within a hundred votes of surpassing the NDP. There is no reason to believe that the Green vote will drop. The Liberal candidate while running as Progressive Conservative in 1993 and 1997 was very nearly beaten by the National Party in 1993 and beaten by the Green party in 1997. The BC Unity candidate has previously run for both the Christian Heritage party and Family Coaltion party, do not expect BC Unity to capture 11% of the vote this time. The BC Liberals are supposedly running at 61% in the interior, but in two way fights with the Socreds this constituency always voted NDP. Do not expect the BC Liberal vote to go past 45%. Latest polls have the NDP running at 19% in the interior and I do not expect Corky to achieve above 25% to 30%. If Colleen McCrory can place herself between the NDP and the BC Liberals then this will be one of the seats to go Green. With a weak Liberal candidate and weak BC Unity candidate enough of the voters may decide the only way to go is to oust the NDP by voting Green. The spoiler for the Green party could be the number of votes obtained by the Marijuana party, unless Marijuana voters decide to vote strategically and go Green. My money is on Colleen McCrory. She is well known and has been going door to door throughout the constituency. In contrast the NDP cannot even get enough support inside the constituency to run a decent campaign.
24/03/01 Poll Junkie Email:
Corky should hold the seat despite the Green challenge. He is very popular locally and his two runs for the NDP leadership have increased his profile. The local Liberal candidate hurt his chances by not showing up to a press conference announcing a long-awaited new hospital complex for Nelson, despite a personal invitation from Corky and the presence of other non-NDP local leaders, including the Green candidate. Corky's name recognition, record of service and charisma will allow him to withstand the Liberal tidal wave.
26/03/01 DMB Email:politics101@telus.net
As I said in my original post I think this one is to close to call and I wonder now that there are a number of other posts with a variety of predictions if it isn't time to change this to too close to call. One thing to note - that when a mad electorate vents there anger even the nice guys, hard working guys, popular guys get tossed out of office and this is what is likely to happen to Corky. One thing that could happen here is that the winning percentage will be the smallest in the province - possibily only 34 - 35 % and if that is the case then either the Liberals or Greens have the best chance of upsetting Corky.
26/03/01 JH Email:
Corky has earned a loyal base of support through representing the spirit of the type of people who live in the Kootenies and he has shown us a true alternative view of what Canadian politics could be-- that is honesty, integrity and an awareness of the underlying environmental issues and he will beat the BC L. developer/lawyer.
29/03/01 Kevan Hudson Email:
Colleen McCrory has a very good of winning in Nelson-Creston. It is going to be a three horse race between the Greens, NDP and Liberals.
02/04/01 Highland Flood Email:jazzpolice_99@yahoo.ca
If any riding goes Green, this one will. The Greens will definitely build on their results from 1996, when they finished a competitive third. Corky still represents the folksy, human side of the NDP, but his last five years in cabinet have weakened his credibility, not strengthened it, especially since he became health minister. The NDP will continue to bleed support to the Greens, while the Liberals will pick up some but not all of the 1996 Reform vote. It may be a close three-way race, or it could even be a two-way Liberal/Green race, but if the Green campaign picks up any momentum provincewide, look for them to win at least this seat.
04/04/01 Malcolm Email:
I won't claim to know a riding like Nelson-Creston inside out. And while I know a bit about Corky Evans (who should have been Premier twice now), I concur with the contributer who said that a sweep often sweeps away the good with the bad. But I do know Andy Shadrack -- from twenty years ago when he was a revolutionary non-aligned Marxist In Struggle! type. We were both a little too full of ourselves in those days. I also have some experience of fringe party folk who convince themselves -- and no one else -- that the revolution is just around the corner. Eleven per cent is not much of a base to build a victory -- particularly if Corky and the New Democrats play the polarization card. And if they don't play the polarization card, then they really are stupid. I'm not prepared to call it either way. But I am prepared to call it NOT Green. I remember during the last election, when Canadian Action Party types would tell me how they were set to win up to sixty seats -- or the 1993 election, where the National Party were going to win big. I didn't believe them either. If the Greens win even one seat in the BC election, I will personally eat a Gordaon Campbell lawn sign and kiss Gordon Wilson on the lips.
07/04/01 DMB Email:politics101@telus.net
If the NDP won this riding with only 45% of the vote last time with a popular local guy named Corky Evans why would Andy suggest that the Liberals won't be able to win if they get only 45% of the vote? As I stated earlier this riding could be won with as little as 34-35 % of the popular vote and in which case Corky could squeeze back in and finally by default become NDP leader and leader of the opposition. While the Green Party has their best hopes here it is unlikely that they will be able to siphon off enough votes from the Liberals and NDP to get to the 35% needed to win the seat. Still a toss up.
10/04/01 Email:
Corky's personal popularity is strong enough for him to win. His leadership run impressed alot of people. Look for him to win and be in a leadership position very soon!
18/04/01 Highland Flood Email:jazzpolice_99@yahoo.ca
With regard to Malcolm's post, I'm sure the NDP will play the polarization card. My only question to him is, will it work again this time? If former "Marxist-in-struggle" Andy was able to get 11% of the votes in an election where the polarization card worked for the NDP, what will happen now that the perennial Socred candidate (Howard Dirks) isn't the Liberal candidate, with a new Green candidate, and after five years where people got to see what happens when they vote NDP to keep the Liberals out? Don't worry, Malcolm. If Colleen wins, I won't hold you to your promise. I'd never make anyone kiss Gordon Wilson.
Also, I disagree with the comment that "11% isn't much to build on toward a victory". Here's a sample of how well some Liberal candidates did in 1986, in ridings that they went on to win in 1991 (albeit after the electoral map was redrawn): 11% in Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale, 8.5% in North Van-Seymour, 7% in Saanich and the Islands. In 1991 the Liberals won 14 other seats beside these ones, but because of the boundary changes, I have no idea how their numbers changed in the other ridings. Probably higher than 11% in some (Gordon Wilson, for example, got 14% of the votes where he ran in 1986), probably lower than 7% in others (Val Anderson got 4% of the votes running against Glen Clark in a riding represented by two MLAs, later split into two ridings). So it'll be interesting to see if the Greens can copy Wilson's 1991 feat and elect at least one MLA. I think the political climate today is just perfect for it....
19/04/01 Darren Blois Email:
This is a riding where the NDP could actually finish third. The general collapse of the NDP vote will be exacerbated by an exceptionally strong Green vote. Corky won't know what hit him.
21/04/01 Bernard Schulmann Email:bernard.schulmann@lillonet.org
Well, time to make some educated guesses on percentages. Some facts that we do know.
1) This is the only riding in BC where the Greens are as strong as a mainstream party in organisation.
2) Corky Evans has risen in stature over the years and is one of the few NDP MLAs from rural ridings that is seen as being rural resource friendly
3) Blair Sufferdine has a bit of the 'eau de loser' about from the failed PC bids.
4) A few too many people smoke dope in N-C and are flakey (as is the Marijauna candidate)
5) No other party will matter
So how will it turn out?
Liberals 40 (35-50)
NPD 35 (25-40)
Green 20 (15-25)
Marijuana 5
22/04/01 Jack Hall Email:forn@dragonclans.com
This riding like every other riding will go liberal.. I have seen what seems like countless election signs from the liberals all over since the drop of the writ in peoples yards, and along the highway, this campaign is oviously in no shortage of supporers and are organized. Look for the NDP, Green, and Marajuina Parties to spilt all of the vote they have and all come in at about 12-15%, The unity candidate is a fellow who will be preaching pro-life, anti-gay, look for him to get about 1% of the vote.. this leaves the liberals with a convincing 54% of the vote.. This isn't hard folks, its simple math... the liberals are not going to loose votes to the Greens or the NDP or the Marijuana. Rightwing doesnt Swing left.. espically when they are going to form government.. however.. look for swing NDP voters to vote liberal.
23/04/01 Mark R. Email:markusrobinson@hotmail.com
If any riding goes Green, this will be the one. Having said that, watch for those who voted for Reform BC switch to BC Liberal and likewise be prepared for NDP support to collapse to the Greens. Watch it to be a close Liberal win, with the Greens finishing a close 2nd in front of the NDP.
25/04/01 J.F. Breton Email:
Madame McCrory est une personnalite connue internationalement. Si les Verts ont une chance de percer en Colombie-Britannique, c'est bien dans ce comte.
27/04/01 DMB Email:politics101@telus.net
Okay here I go out on the limb - Barring a collaspe of the Liberal vote I will predict a Liberal win - according to the Vancouver Sun on Friday April 27, this has been a bellweather riding for the past two decades - it was won by the Socreds in 1986 by only 27 votes after 3 recounts - the loser in 1986 - Corky Evans - so this riding could still be very tight and live up to my previous post as being perhaps won with the smallest % in the province.
29/04/01 Mark R. Email:markusrobinson@hotmail.com
This riding should change from "too close to call" to "BC Liberal". After reading the Vancouver Sun profile on the Riding (April 27), it makes sense. The pundits are calling this riding Liberal, and word on the street is pointing that way as well.
01/05/01 Michael Ensley Email:mensley@yahoo.com
The Green vote will split the anti-liberal vote. Corky Evans is headed back to the farm
01/05/01 Tim O'Brien Email:
I currently work within the Federal Government and am a graduate student of Political Science. Although, I personally do not agree with all tenants of the B.C. Green Party, they have a legitimate chance in Nelson-Creston. The constituency organization is quite strong and on a personal note; I know many individuals in the riding and the Generation X votes seems to lean Green. It will be very close, Green by a whisker on motivation.
04/05/01 J Baldez Email:juanbaldezz@hotmail.com
However,on the subject of who will be elected in Nelson Creston this election,I have this to say: The people of BC are very concerned about the way they have been governed in the last decade. They are not going to take any chances and are going to flock to the Liberals. They remember what happened last time. This will hold true even in the riding of Nelson Creston.
14/05/01 V.D. Email:bench_breaker@hotmail.com
With the NDP polling so low in the interior, and a strong green candidate, I don't think Corky will pull through this one.
14/05/01 Eric So Email:tyehls@hotmail.com
Before you make to final call before the election day which is 2 days away. I would like to say to the webmaster that people tends to stay on their side of political spectrum ie left or right. The Last time around, the people voted NDP voted because they are centre-leftist, and/or they are supporter of what Corky Evans did to their community. Now people that are still voting NDP will be the followers of Corky Evans, or deep NDP loyalist. Remember the last time around, the Greens got 10%, and are very well known. Most of the centre-left vote are not going to the liberal but to the Greens; Some will go to other parties, but the most remaining will likely be Liberal. This riding is a three way party race. With the reform decimated, and have no candidate there, the centre-right will go liberal, and the one or two right vote will go to the Unity party. With the NDP down to 14%, and the Greens at 15%, vote spliting will be very important. The people who voted Liberal will vote liberal again, we cannot say that to the NDP. The Greens put this riding as a real winable site on BCTV. The only party with increased vote will be the liberal, and the greens. Question? who got more vote to begin with? Hope the web master could make a choose a day before the election.

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Last Updated 15 May 2001
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