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Outremont
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale
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Update/Mise à jour: 6:44 PM 6/26/2004 
Prediction Changed La prévision a changé 4:58 PM 6/26/2004 |
Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription
Candidates/candidats:
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(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
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N.D.P./N.P.D.: Omar Aktouf | ||||||
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Parti Marijuana Party: Yan Lacombe | ||||||
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Liberal Party/Parti libéral: Jean Lapierre | ||||||
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Green Party/Parti Vert: Shaun Perceval-Maxwell | ||||||
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Bloc Québécois: François Rebello | ||||||
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Conservatives/Conservateurs: Marc Rousseau | ||||||
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Marxist-Leninist: Linda Sullivan | ||||||
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Incumbents/Les députés: | |||||||
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Outremont (89.3%) Hon. Martin Cauchon | ||||||
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Papineau-Saint-Denis (3.8%) Hon. Pierre Pettigrew | ||||||
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Westmount-Ville-Marie (6.8%) Hon. Lucienne Robillard | ||||||
2000 Result/Résultats:
| Redistributed | ||
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19,252 | 50.95% |
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9,159 | 24.24% |
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3,132 | 8.29% |
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2,139 | 5.66% |
| 4,101 | 10.85% | |
Outremont (153/178 polls, 58615/67868 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 16906 | |
| 8759 | |
 | 1139 | |
| 1882 | |
| 2891 | |
| 2231 | ||
Papineau-Saint-Denis (8/189 polls, 2505/73222 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 981 | |
| 51 | |
| 154 | |
| 41 | |
| 15 | |
| 157 | ||
Westmount-Ville-Marie (21/187 polls, 4486/70390 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 1365 | |
| 349 | |
| 98 | |
| 216 | |
| 226 | |
| 322 | ||
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24/06/04 | The political advisor Email: [hidden] | |
| Des articles de journaux ont laissé entendre que le Bloc était en avance ici. Le candidat conservateur mène une campagne solide, ce qui devrait affaiblir le libéral. Le Bloc mène un bonne campagne, mais le néo-démocrate pourrait lui faire mal. À vrai dire, on peut dire qu'il s'agit d'une campagne à 4. Tout est possible. Je penche donc pour le NPD, en se faufilant entre les trois autres adversaires. | |||
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20/06/04 | NDP Newbie Email: [hidden] | |
| Under most circumstances, I would declare this riding too close to call when taking into account the results of this riding in 2000 and the fact that the polls have the Bloc steamrolling through Quebec by a far larger margin than in even 1993, due in large part to the fact that Duceppe has really come into his own as Bloc leader, a dislike for Conservatives among Francophone Quebecers that has persisted since the early-1990s, and Quebec's disgust with the sponsorship scandal. Unfortunately for the Liberals, a strong NDP candidate (whom I would love to see pull off the upset victory) and a hated Liberal candidate forces me to make a more ambitious prediction in favour of a Bloc victory. | |||
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20/06/04 | Jack Email: [hidden] | |
| Apparently the Bloc campaign is calling this "seat number 60". If the Bloc does make a breakthrough at around 50%, Outremont will fall as well. | |||
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15/06/04 | Dan Email: [hidden] | |
| I see a Bloc upset here. While Martin Cauchon would have been reelected in a heartbeat, Lapierre is seriously hated in this riding. Many Liberal and Lapierre signs in this riding have been destroyed and the general consensus seems to be that Lapierre cannot be trusted. Moreover, this riding is filled with many immigrants and I strongly do suspect that they will hand this one to the Bloc. | |||
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15/06/04 | Olive_Branch Email: lombardimax@hotmail.com | |
| This riding has the right dynamic to return one of the greatest upsets for election night: 1) the Bloc polling numbers compared with its historical base in this riding could give them a very high vote count but not quite enough to take the seat; 2) the Liberal candidate Jean Lapierre is proving to be less shiny than the star candidate moniker would suggest -- a falling star or a black hole or a shooting star (shooting from the lip and putting a foot in his mouth now and again); 3) the Conservative campaign is giving them more support than they would normally expect in an otherwise "wasteland" riding for them; 4) NDP with perhaps their biggest star in Quebec (the widely respected business professor, Omar Aktouf) and their best riding to boot can add that to the spectre of a 400% or 500% improvement in their popular vote in Quebec from the last election. In short, its Omar by a nose. | |||
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15/06/04 | David C Email: [hidden] | |
| Dans une lutte tres serré, les Liberaux vont l'emporter. Mais, avec le vote augmenté du Bloc et du NPD. Harper ne gagnera grand chose ici. Ma prévision après le debat français: PLC 40, Bloc 35, NPD 12, PCC 8. | |||
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15/06/04 | Marco Email: | |
| Le député François Rebello du Bloc créera la surprise dans Outremont. Lapierre a fait des bévues depuis le début des élection et croit que la victoire est acquise pour lui. De son côté, Rebello a effectué une campagne près des gens de Côte des Neiges et Outremont, et il est natif d'Ouremont si je ne me trompe. Il a aussi eu une bonne couverture médiatique( plus positive que celle de Lapierre) par entre autre le Voir et à la radion de Radio-Canada. Le Bloc passera de justesse. | |||
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28/05/04 | Alexqueb Email: [hidden] | |
Contrairement à Stéphane je ne crois pas que Mile-End soit acquis aux Libéraux. Le NPD a de forte chance de faire des percées dans ce quartier historiquement de gauche. Dans Côte-des-Neiges les Libéraux devraient l'emporté, mais là Libéraux ont plus de chances. Maintenant, le coeur d'Outremont est acquis aux Libéraux. C'est le lieu de l'Establishment. Les conservateurs un peu comme l'ADQ n'ont pas de chance car ils sont des contestataires de droite. S'il y a de l'opposition au coeur d'Outremont elle viendra de souverainiste qui voteront pour le Bloc. Le NPD n'ira certainement pas chercher beaucoup de votes au coeur d'Outremont. Globalement, l'opposition est trop divisée. Il sera plutôt intéressant de voir si Lapierre a moins ou plus de votes que les Libéraux ont eu aux dernières élections. | |||
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16/05/04 | Stéphane Gaudet Email: [hidden] | |
| Circonscription fédéraliste. Ce n'est pas pour rien que Jean Lapierre s'y présente sous la bannière libérale, il peut être assuré d'y être élu. Malgré un certain vote progressiste (l'UFP est arrivée troisième, devant l'ADQ, en 2003), le NPD et le Bloc n'ont aucune chance. La circonscription fédérale est quelque peu différente de la provinciale, englobant le Mile End de plus en plus anglophone et le quartier multiethnique de Côte-des-Neiges. Donc, un comté sociologiquement libéral. | |||
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11/05/04 | CH Email: [hidden] | |
| This is one of the safest predominantly francophone Liberal seats in Quebec. I've lived here for 15 years, and it has (unfortunately) voted Liberal federally and provincially in every election. | |||
| 11/05/04 | Bernard Email: [hidden] | ||
| I make no prediction because I do not know the area and the reality of how the current politics are playing out. The one comment I will make about this riding is that opposed to many other ridings in Que and Ont where the Liberals have scored some insanely large numbers, this has not happened in Outremount since Marc Lalonde in 1980. As to the NDP people scoffing at them getting much vote, I note that in 1988 Louise O'Neill got a respectable 20%. The Liberals got 35% in the same election, yes this was their nadir. Liberal vote 1993 - 47% BQ got 37% 1997 - 50% This is not a complete and utter cakewalk for the Liberals. A strong NDP candidate I suspect will take from the Liberals (especially the ones that believe in ethical government) With the right shift, this could be won by the BQ | |||
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08/05/04 | mathieu pepin Email: [hidden] | |
| j'ai beau être un souverainistre convaincu et pour ne pas dire séparatiste.MAIS, je ne veux pas perdre ma crédibilité et je dois admettre que Jean Lapierre sera le prochain député de ce comté. Ce comté étant acquis aux libéraux; parlons maintenant des autres comtés...comme Sherbrooke. | |||
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01/05/04 | Victor A. Email: pokojpeacepaix@yahoo.ca | |
| No doubt, Aktouf is a popular teacher BUT honestly Vadeboncoeur there is just as much going aginst him as going for him. In fact, I want to remind everyone that Aktouf is a member of/ and was a candidate in the last provincial election for Separatist and Extreme-Left Québec party - Union de forces progressistes ( UFP ) He was a candidate in much friendlies riding of Rosemont and got around 1.5 % of the votes. In upper class Outremont nobody but a couple of young students or activists can be confortable with Aktouf's ideas or identify with them. In fact, Aktouf probably doesn't know himself if he wants to be a separatist or a federalist. He is going to think it over after this (failed for him) election when Lapierre will be in cabinet. | |||
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30/04/04 | pierre Email: [hidden] | |
| C'est gagné d'avance avec la nouvelle carte, c'est un no brainer pour M. Lapierre. Il perd une partie bloquiste du Plateau de St Laurent a St Denis. Le comté est et restera Libéral pour 50 ans. Arrété la farce et donner le gagnant | |||
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29/04/04 | Vadeboncoeur Email: [hidden] | |
| The NDP candidate is the highly impressive Omar Aktouf, a management professor at UdeM. Aktouf won't win, but if Jack Layton does well in the French debate, he could post an impressive result (20%, maybe even a bit more), with votes that will largely bleed the Bloc. Even if Aktouf doesn't post those kind of numbers, the demographics and history of the riding make it an unlikely pickup for the Bloc, even in a 50+ seats scenario for them. | |||
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19/04/04 | Bear and Ape Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com | |
| Good call Victor A! We haven't really looked into posting anything for Outremont because we figured it was a rather uninteresting race as are many of the other current Liberal seats on the island of Montreal. We were astounded to see people predicting BQ wins here and someone commenting on NDP having it's best shot here (5% of the vote is not good at all). Victor's comments mirror's the ones we were going to post (you beat us to the punch, dude!) but there are two points we'd like to add. First, the Liberals have a fair share of the overall vote in Quebec. When you break it down, the vast majority of this support is on the Island of Montreal. What that means is that the Liberals (as the polls stand now) will do ALMOST as poorly in Quebec as they did in 93. Translation: They'll keep all their Island of Montreal ridings (maybe lose one but it won't be Outremont) and a smattering of rural ridings, mostly along the borders. Second point, LaPierre is high profile and popular. If he tried to run in a predominantly anglophone riding (say NDG-Lachine for instance) he might lose, stress MIGHT lose. This isn't the case and he is known and liked amongst the francophone community (as opposed to the "former seperatist" title he's known as amongst the Anglophone community). Liberal keep with something like 55% of the vote. | |||
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15/04/04 | Victor A. Email: | |
| Oh come on guys, some of you must be kidding, Bloc?, NDP? doing well in majoritairly upper-scale Outremont against Lapierre? This is more of a wishful thinking I guess. First up, NDP's candidate has a rather limited approach and should not go over 10 %, secondly the only place inthis riding Bloc could get votes from is the Easternmost part of it. ( western part of Mile End ). Furthermore, Mile End is hardly a typically Francophone separatist place, it's in fact very multicultural. I won't even take into account the old city of Outremont which is as liberal as it gets and is upper scale. Too leftist policies of Bloc and NDP are hardly any attraction to these people. Of course, some UdeM students can vote Bloc or NDP but their number is too low and young people have such a low turnout that Rebello should be happy if he gets 25 % of the votes, sorry but I can't imagine young people from École Polytechnique or HEC that interested in going to vote anyways. Lapierre will get around 55 to 60 % of the votes, Rebello 25 %, NDP around 8 % and Conservatives will be dead last, LOL like almost anywhere else in Quebec. | |||
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09/04/04 | Jesse Hoffman Email: | |
| I think the Liberals will hold on here, but don't be shocked if the Bloc upsets. One would think that even recent poll results for the Libs in Quebec, this would be a fairly safe Liberal seat, but this will be one riding in the province where the NDP will have an effect. The New Democrats are running the highly impressive Dr Omar Aktouf, and Outremont was the NDP best Quebec riding. I think he will probably get over 20% of the vote, but won't win. This riding will probably be decided based on which party Omar can draw the most votes from. | |||
| 31/03/04 | Hack Email: [hidden] | ||
| Meme s'il y a un degout general envers M. Lapierre, cette circonscription ne votera pas pour un parti separatiste. De meme que les liberaux ont encore un avantage enorme a cause de l'histoire, s'il y a un mouvement anti-Lapierre, il s'exprimera dans des votes pour les conservateurs ou les neo-democrates, et non pas pour les bloquistes. | |||
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29/03/04 | Martin Timodi Lamontagne Email: timodi@yahoo.com | |
| Jean Lapierre perd de plus en plus de la crédibilité dans son propre comté. Même s'il a rien a voir avec le fameux scandal des commandites, il ne sait plus quoi répondre au fur et a mesure le scandal évolue. J'espère que le travail de Francois Rebello sera a la hauteur des attentes. Il est relativement connue dans son millieu et il a de bonne chance de nuire a Jean lapiere. Deplus Francois Rebello risque surement d'avoir a sa disposition la machine du PQ-Mercier dont il est le président. La campagne électoral sera très interessante a surveiller de ce coté la. | |||
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28/03/04 | JT Email: | |
| I'll go out on a limb here and predict a BQ upset. Pre-Adscam I would have said the Libereals have this riding in the bag. However, having a candidate who can't make up his mind wheter ihe is federalist or soverignist. Plus despite being a traditional Liberal seat there is no guarantee they will win. ( Remember 1988). | |||
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24/03/04 | Neo Email: [hidden] | |
| I agree with the poster who says this where the NDP will make its best showing in Quebec on election night. Nothing short of a political earthquake will result in Jean Lapierre losing this riding, but Omar Aktouf is a very impressive candidate and if Jack Layton can make an impression in Quebec during the leader's debate Aktouf might rack up some impressive numbers. | |||
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20/03/04 | syllap Email: sylapointe@hotmail.com | |
| Outremont will again return for the Liberals with star Jean Lapierre | |||
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20/03/04 | IGB Email: [hidden] | |
| Outremont is a pretty strong Liberal riding (Liberal since 1935 with the exception of 1988-1993) and the high profile of Jean Lapierre only adds to this. Count Lapierre as an MP after the election (and a cabinet minister, as well). | |||
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19/03/04 | M.W. Email: mijawara@yahoo.com | |
| Safe Liberal win. Having said that: Contrary to predictions some have made about Manicouagan, Outremont is where the NDP will make itself felt in Quebec this election. Dr Omar Aktouf is a singularly impressive candidate, a business prof at HEC in Montreal; people in federalist Outremont pissed off about Adscam will park their anti-Liberal votes with Aktouf, not the BQ's François Rebello. With a strong showing by Layton in the Radio-Canada leaders debate, Aktouf could place second here (NDP took 5.66%, redistributed, in 2000). | |||
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16/03/04 | Neal Email: nealford@sympatico.ca | |
| This seat used to be Martin Cauchon'sand the torch has been handed to Jean Lapierre. Easy Liberal win. | |||
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