Projet D'Élection Prévision
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Papineau
Federal Election - 2004 - élection générale
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Update/Mise à jour: 6:44 PM 6/26/2004 
Prediction Changed La prévision a changé 9:22 PM 18/03/2004 |
Constituency Profile
Profil de circonscription
Candidates/candidats:
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Bloc Québécois: Martine Carrière | ||||||
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Parti Marijuana Party: Christelle Dusablon-Pelletier | ||||||
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N.D.P./N.P.D.: André Frappier | ||||||
| Independent: Jimmy Garoufalis | |||||||
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Green Party/Parti Vert: Adam Jastrzebski | ||||||
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Marxist-Leninist: Peter Macrisopoulos | ||||||
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Communist: André Parizeau | ||||||
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Liberal Party/Parti libéral: Pierre Pettigrew | ||||||
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Conservatives/Conservateurs: Mustaque Sarker | ||||||
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Incumbents/Les députés: | |||||||
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Papineau-Saint-Denis (100.0%) Hon. Pierre Pettigrew | ||||||
2000 Result/Résultats:
| Redistributed | ||
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22,793 | 53.56% |
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11,625 | 27.32% |
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1,947 | 4.58% |
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1,938 | 4.55% |
| 4,252 | 9.99% | |
Papineau-Saint-Denis (181/189 polls, 70717/73222 voters) 2000 Prediction/Complete Results | ||
| 22793 | |
| 11625 | |
| 1947 | |
| 1938 | |
 | 1192 | |
| 3060 | ||
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24/06/04 | Stéphane Gaudet Email: [hidden] | |
| Réélection facile pour Pierre Pettigrew. Il ne faut pas oublier que cette circonscription englobe Parc-Extension, le quartier le moins francophone de Montréal. Même si beaucoup de non-francophones égareront leur fidélité envers les libéraux en votant pour le candidat d'origine bangladaise Sarker (surtout chez les électeurs sud-asiatiques), cela ne devrait pas être suffisant pour battre le ministre. | |||
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24/06/04 | Le 28 juin on vote Email: | |
| Je pense que André Frappier (le président des travailleurs de la poste au Québec) a des excellentes chances à remporter la victoire dans Papineau. Pierre Pettigrew était invisible dans son comté pour toute la campagne, et les communautés éthniques de Montréal ont commencé à chercher un autre parti pour les représenter à Ottawa. Frappier, appuyé par les syndicats de Montréal, des membres locales du conseil municipal et plusieurs communautés d'imigrants, va gagner la lutte à trois dans ce comté! | |||
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24/06/04 | The political advisor Email: [hidden] | |
| Je pense qu'on pourrait avoir une surprise ici. Le candidat libéral n'est presque pas présent dans son comté, la bloquiste est plutôt effacée. André Frappier mène une campagne efficace. Il faut parcourir le comté pour prendre conscience de la présence du candidat NPD. Surveiller très attentivement le secteur de Parc Extension. Je ne serais pas surpris qu'il se faufile entre le Libéral et le Bloc. | |||
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10/06/04 | initial Email: [hidden] | |
| D'abord j'espère simplement que les gens ne voteront pas conservateur. D'après mes informations dans le comté, c'est un arriviste qui a flirté avec le Bloc, et le NPD pour ensuite se présenter comme conservateur. D'après ces mêmes sources, on m'a dit qu'il se présente comme un émule de Brian Mulroney et qu'il considère son élection comme une marche vers le pouvoir (confirmé sur le site de R-C)... hum Pour ce qui est du comté, il restera Bloc, parce le Bloc s'est bien installé partout, que les libéraux ont une organisation qui a vieilli, et que sur le terrain, les gens refusent les libéraux comme choix. D'après un contact de la Vallée, la campagne du NPD va assez bien, surtout dans le porte-à-porte. Ils y en a qui font ça pour la "foi". Mais aucune chance d'inquiéter les bloquistes. | |||
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01/06/04 | Brian Email: [hidden] | |
| I am not from this riding, but have heard that the NDP candidate supports separatism. Is this true? This strikes me as a little odd, as the NDP is a cross-Canada Federalist party. Are they that hard-up for candidates? I could understand running a nationalist, but not a separatist. Are there any NDPers out there that will change their vote because of this? | |||
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28/04/04 | Bear and Ape Email: thebigape2000@hotmail.com | |
| NO! NO! NO! No NDP! No Conservatives! That goes for ALL of Quebec and particularly in Montreal. The people making these predictions are either nieve or wishful thinkers. In Quebec two parties matter: Liberal and BQ. NOTHING ELSE! Having said that, Pettigrew will win Papineau hands down. This is a solidly Liberal riding and his personal popularity is enough to ensure a victory in this troubled times for the Liberals. | |||
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26/04/04 | Vadeboncoeur Email: [hidden] | |
| Note to the person in Ottawa - please send me some of that terrific weed you are smoking...much as I would love to see the Liberals smacked down, it is highly improbable in a Montreal riding that has managed to stay Liberal during both the Mulroney years and BQ era. That doesn't mean that Frappier can turn in a respectable result for the NDP under the right circumstances, but I just don't see any reasonable, non-pharmaceutically enhanced scenario where anyone but Pettigrew takes this one. | |||
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24/04/04 | Victor A. Email: pokojpeacepaix@yahoo.ca | |
| To pretend that the NDP has any chance to win here should be taken as a joke. I actually almost fell off my chair when I read the statement from our NDP Ottawa collegue. Pierre Pettigrew is as safe here as Paul Martin in Lasalle-Émard. This is middle-class and lower middle class riding but no poverty as such. Ethnically speaking, there is a lot of allophones of all kinds ( Italian, Portuguese, Latino, South Asian, Arabs ) as well as Francophones. To the contrary of the neighbouring riding of Rosemont-Petite Patrie, this area is very mixed. Now, I'd like to strech out my point about the NDP or PC chances in Québec one more time, because some people from outside the province seem to keep on writing messages that either of those parties can be competitive in here. This is not the case. Let me make it clear, NDP has no chance to elect a member in Quebec, the Manicouagan candidate Ducasse is an attractive candidate and possibly he'd be a good MP but his chances even for a second place are limited, but if NDP is to come second somewhere in Québec that would be in Manicouagan. People here like Jack Layton but somehow BQ seems like a better option for the right-wing or center-right wing voters. Now, when it comes to the Conservative Party, their policies are so unpopular in Québec that ADQ has wanted to distance itself from them for a long time. Up until today 25-th of april the PC managed to select around 6 candidates out of 75 possible. No serious polititian/entrepreneur/professional wants to run for them. The PC is a lost cause here, Québec mentality is way closer to Scandinavian than to what is popular in Alberta or Western Canada, so Harper should not even bother. | |||
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19/04/04 | Quelqu'un d'Ottawa Email: | |
| I'm calling wildcard in this riding, advantage NDP for two reasons. First, the NDP have nominate the head of the Quebec postal workers as their candidate, which has won the solid support of the powerful FTQ like they have never supported a federal candidate before. Secondly, if things go badly in the rest of the country and Le Petit Prince du Papineau decides he cannot stomach the prospect of sitting as a backbench opposition MP, this campaign will tank. This isn't to say PP will lose... but watch the NDP in this riding. | |||
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17/03/04 | Nick Boragina Email: kee_empire@hotmail.com | |
| This is one of those ridings that votes Liberal for the sake of Voting Liberal | |||
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