bls-Bulkley Valley-Stikine

Election Prediction Project

Bulkley Valley-Stikine
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
6:35 PM 15/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
6:35 PM 15/05/2005

Constituency Profile

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)

NDP
Doug Donaldson

Marijuana
Reginald Bruce Gunanoot

Democratic Reform BC
Nipper Kettle

British Columbia Party
Jack Kortmeyer

BC Liberal
Dennis Edwin MacKay

People's Front
Frank Martin

Green Party
Leanna Mitchell

Incumbent:

BC Liberals:
MacKAY, Dennis

1996 Re-distribution:

Population: 32180

Dev. from Quota: -31.74%

Area (km2): 182967

Pop Density: 0.18

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)

55.93%

21.29%

6.46%

8.98%

1996 Result (redistributed):

37.02%

28.64%

27.23%

4.73%

1.19%

Surrounding Ridings:
Cariboo North
Cariboo South
North Coast
Peace River North
Prince George-Mount Robson
Prince George-Mount Robson
Skeena


	27 04 05	Pundit
This riding inculdes the bible belt of the north.... Give your head a shake, this is going to stay Liberal. For the Ndp to win, there has to he two serious parties on the right
	16 04 05	VN
Demographics and candidate connections are a big factor here...I'd argue more important than traditional voting patterns. Donaldson for the NDP has good connections with Gitxsan and municipal governments in the region (being a councillor for Hazelton). If the "defending local interests" record mobilizes votes, and the First Nation youth vote increases (their demographic is ever growing), then he will win...if business and industry connections of the incumbent gets the vote out then the incumbent will win. Forestry, fishery and FN treaty frustrations play big in this riding so I'd bet on an anti government, pro local interest, NDP win.
	09 04 05	BLJ
Of the three provincial ridings contained within the federal riding, this was the only riding in which the CPC had a plurality with approximate figures as follows: Green:329 (3.2%), CPC:4,037 (39%), NDP:3,318 (32%), Liberal:1,858 (18%), CHP:800 (7.7%).
	10 04 05	BLJ
In 1991, the NDP captured 34% of the vote in this riding v. 47% in Skeena. Likewise, in 1996, the NDP captured 37% of the vote in this riding v. 40% in Skeena. In 2001, BC Unity captured about 9% in this riding - they had no candidate in Skeena. Considering that in the federal election this was the only provincial riding of the three that the NDP failed to win and that the right-wing vote was 46.7% (CPC + CHP), this riding seems to be much more conservative than Skeena. At the present time I think the only riding in the northwest which could be considered is a toss-up is actually Skeena.
	22 03 05	M. Lunn
While it is true this riding did go NDP in the last federal election, much of that support was concentrated in Prince Rupert and the Queen Charlotte Islands i.e the riding of North Coast. Just looking at the 1996 numbers it appears the NDP will likely rack up huge numbers on the coast will it will be a neck-neck race in the inland areas, which tend to be more conservative. Keep in mind the combined liberal/reform vote from 1996 was 55%. I am not suggesting the liberals will get that high since many people voted Reform Party for its populist appeal as opposed to its right wing policies, but the liberals will certainly get more than 28% this time around. The NDP will also likely get above 37% even if they lose the riding since they will pick up some of the Reform Party support. It really comes down to which side those who voted Reform Party in 1996 go to.
	20 03 05	JC
This I think will go NDP. First off Nathan Cullen won the Federal Race in this Area not to long ago and maybe just maybe it could translate into a win for the NDP.
	15 03 05	A. Vancouverite
The NDP got slightly under their average in 2001, and the Liberals got slightly under their average as well -- other than that it mirrored the province. Although two interesting anomalies are that the Unity Party almost got 9%, and the Green Party got 4% less than their provincial average. Considering all these numbers together one should place this in the too-close to call column since it's the only reasonable one to place it in, unlike those who may wish to only call ridings for only one party regardless of reality. The Unity Party number is interesting because, like the Federal election, it signifies that a small right-wing party can gain support here. In the Federal election the Christian Heritage Party got over 1,000 votes -- those votes where mostly in this riding and Skeena. If the BC Conservative and/or BC Reform Party (that is back up and running again btw) run candidates in this riding they may be able to split between five and ten percent of the vote. There are also indications that some people who supported the BC Liberals in 2001 are switching to the Greens, and some who supported the Greens in 2001 are switching to the NDP (and obviously some former Liberal supporters are going to the NDP too). These vote migrations should make the race close and Donaldson is a good candidate for the NDP while the Liberal has remained relatively silent with a low profile, meaning he will rely on Gordon Campbell's coattails---a dangerous thing in the Interior. The Liberals will have a slight advantage due to the slightly conservative tilt of the riding, but with the cuts affecting the interior more so here than in the Peace and Okangan don't count Donaldson out. It’s still too close to call.
	15 03 05	stereomixer
The previous numbers would point to a Liberal win unless another right-wing party can absorb any of the Libs' vote. But Peter, can you tell us which hospitals have closed in northern BC? I don't think any have.
	11 03 05	Mike Mulroney
Traditional voting patterns in this riding are not NDP as Peter Kelly claims. Back in 1996 when the NDP and the BC Liberals polled roughly evenly, the NDP won the riding with 37 percent. The Combined Reform and the Liberal vote was 56 percent. The BC Liberals and NDP both ran about even with the provincial average in 2001. With past voting patterns standing as the only arguments for an NDP win, then clearly the incumbent, a former RCMP officer who fared well in the last election, will win re-election.
	21-Feb-05	P. Kelly Email:
Traditional voting patterns are in effect in BC again. This area of BC is part of the neglected "heartlands" affected by school, hospital closures. They will make the liberals pay.

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