cbs-Cariboo South

Election Prediction Project

Cariboo South
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
10:12 PM 15/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
6:36 PM 15/05/2005

Constituency Profile

Candidates:
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BC Liberal
Walter Lloyd Cobb

Independent
Mike Orr

Green Party
Ed Sharkey

NDP
Charlie Wyse

Incumbent:

BC Liberals:
COBB, Walt

1996 Re-distribution:

Population: 36450

Dev. from Quota: -22.69%

Area (km2): 60833

Pop Density: 0.60

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)

62.21%

25.83%

0.00%

3.63%

1996 Result (redistributed):

39.64%

39.96%

17.72%

0.91%

1.59%

Surrounding Ridings:
Bulkley Valley-Stikine
Cariboo North
Kamloops
Kamloops-North Thompson
North Coast
Powell River-Sunshine Coast
Yale-Lillooet


	15 05 05	AS
Carole James came to both Cariboo South and Cariboo North last week following her successful showing in the televised debate. The NDP Central Campaign does believe that both Cariboo Ridings are winnable.
	14 05 05	M. Lunn
Although this went NDP narrowly in 1996, the BC Liberal/Reform Party vote was 58% as well as the BC Liberals would have won this riding in 1996 had the current boundaries been used. They certainly won't get 58%, but they will likely get around 46%, which is what the Conservatives got in the last federal election and with that kind of support, it will be very tough for the NDP to win this.
	08 05 05	BLJ
To date and as far as I am aware, the NDP leadership campaign has not made a whistle-stop tour of the two Cariboo ridings. Typically, in swing ridings, a party's central campaign will endeavour to make at least one stop during the course of the campaign. This seems to indicate to me that the NDP central campaign does not believe that these ridings are winnable.
	05 05 05	P. Kelly
I think its time to move this one over to the NDP's column. Interior and Cariboo area residents are mad over the Liberal betrayal and sell off of BC Rail. The people here are also mad at school closures and healthcare cuts. The liberal candidates savage attack against a young voter at an all candidates debate should clinch this one for the NDP.
	10 04 05	BLJ
I have done a little number crunching with the combined approximate Liberal/Reform results from 1996 for 7 central and northern interior seats, which are as follows: 1. Cariboo North - 59%; 2. Cariboo South - 58%; 3. Kamloops-North Thompson - 53%; 4. Yale-Lillooet - 53%; 5. Prince George-Mount Robson - 51%; 6. Prince George North - 49%; 7. Kamloops - 47%.
	09 04 05	Matt
Let's just call this one for the NDP already and be done with it. Charlie Wyse is a local legend and has been very effective in the past as a city councillor. While you could compare him to Zirnhelt in terms of having crossover appeal, I would suggest that he has more crossover appeal and can reach out to the Federal Reform voters that are always seeking a provincial home. Add the popularity with Wyse with the fact that the Liberals have done nothing for anyone outside of Vancouver and it all points toward an NDP victory. Actually a Wyse victory more than an NDP victory.
	13 03 05	A. Vancouverite
Charlie Wyse is like a new Dave Zirnheldt, without the association to the previous NDP reigeme. Therefore the NDP has a very good chance to win the riding, even with the redistributed results favouring the Liberals. He's the sort of candidate who comes across in such a way that appeals to rural people who are more intrested in solutions than ideology. He's a maverick and populist so he has a chance at getting some of those people who voted Reform in 96' to vote for him, and of course people who voted Liberal to vote for him. Walt Cobb, otoh, isn't a particularly strong candidate and will be painted as a yes man by his opponents since he didn't really oppose the cuts that effected areas such as this more so than say Kamloops, the Okanagan or Peace. In this way he will easily be connected to Gordon Campbell. Since this is an Interior riding the Liberals will be painted as Vancouver-Centric by the local opposition candidates. This means the Liberals won't have the sort of advantage the Social Credit enjoyed. The other parties won't have too much of an impact, although this may be an area where some of the small right wing parties could do relativley well (compared to provincial averages). To be fair we should see some polls with regional results, and hear some local campaign news to make a prediction. This will be close, slight edge to Wyse (mainly based upon him as a candidate and Liberal unpopularity in the region).
	08 03 05
By nature this is generally a conservative area therefore the liberals should hold the riding, but Campbell's popularity has taken a much larger fall in the Interior as opposed to Lower Mainland therefore I am reluctant to call this one for the Liberals. I would like to see a regional breakdown in the polls before I call this riding. Whoever wins the majority of interior seats will likely win this riding.
	28 02 05	BLJ
Over the past 50 plus years the Cariboo region has been traditionally small "c" conservative and elected centre-right MLAs. Dave Zirnhelt of the NDP won this riding in a by-election and held it probably due to his local appeal as a rancher. However, the redistributed result shows that the Liberals would have won this seat in 1996 notwithstanding a Reform vote of around 19%. As with Cariboo North, unless the NDP obtains an overall lead in provincial public opinion polls, this seat will likely remain Liberal.
	03 03 05	Rick Barnes
Charlie Wise is well known, has always been on the progressive side of social issues, though takes a long look at things before he will give it his whole support. Long time member of City Council and school teacher. Walt Cobb will have a tough time labeling Charlie Wyse with the usual red bating stuff. Charlie Wyse was the guy in charge of the budget for council before and after Walt Cobb was Mayor.
	21-Feb-05	Sharon Kerry Email:
Perhaps one of the strongest candidates in the province, Charlie Wyse is a local legened. He is exactly the type of populist candidate that the NDP needed to win in Cariboo South. Again, the Interior is a bad place to be a Liberal. On election day, that will be the case in Cariboo South.

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