Election Prediction Project

Yale-Lillooet
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
9:43 PM 15/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:43 PM 15/05/2005



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
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BC Liberal
Lloyd George Forman
NDP
Harry Lali
Green Party
Mike McLean
People's Front
Dorothy-Jean O'Donnell
Democratic Reform BC
Arne Jensen Zabell

Incumbent:
BC Liberals:
CHUTTER, Dave
1996 Re-distribution:
Population:38290
Dev. from Quota:-18.78%
Area (km2):32210
Pop Density:1.19

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)

60.07%
17.19%
10.11%
0.00%

1996 Result (redistributed):

41.06%
33.09%
20.47%
4.30%
0.26%

Surrounding Ridings:
Cariboo South
Chilliwack-Kent
Kamloops
Kamloops-North Thompson
Maple Ridge-Mission
Okanagan-Westside
Penticton-Okanagan Valley
Powell River-Sunshine Coast
West Vancouver-Garibaldi



03 05 05 Pundit
Of course Harry Lali is running for a paycheque - everyone knew that in 1991, 1996 and the same now.
Yale Lillooet tends to run with government. The last time it has held by an opposition member was in 1969.
People find Harry entertaining, that does not mean people want him back as an MLA.
25 04 05 JC
This is going to Harry Lali, he has a bigger profile then any other candidate in this riding and he will most definitely win.
25 04 05 Paul Smith
At the recent Vaisakhi event in Merritt Lali was teased about not having a job, then the person with the mic backtracked a little later and said he was 'self employed'. I heard in a coffee shop the other morning that people are starting to say he is just running for a paycheque.
I also heard that the local NDP campaign is trying to get Carol James into the riding, but she won't come and that their rally on Sunday with Dave Barrett was a flop and they had to bus in people from the lower mainland just to have some numbers. They even hid the bus a few blocks away hoping nobody would see.
Forman's campaign has had some difficulty gettting set up beforehand but is now up and running in every community. Campbell has been here twice already, and the BCLibs are saying that shows Forman has his support, and his ear on issues.
I heard a Lali ad saying Forman would be another silent backbencher, but people are talking about Carol James not even wanting the candidate she has here.
Lali is a solid campaigner and Forman has his work cut out. Even with Lali's record as an MLA, which people are starting to question, I think the BCLibs will pull it off.
22 04 05 barstew
Harry Lali did lots of good for his riding and I'm sure all of the projects (and his accessability) will be trotted out during this campaign. By contrast, Dave Chutter was "Nowhere Man" in the last term. Hard to get a hold of and not standing up for his riding when court houses were closed and hospitals were impacted by layoffs and down-scaling. As far as the economy goes, the forest industry in the Fraser Canyon is virtually gone, other than trucking raw logs out of the region. The Boston Bar mill is pretty well closed and the log sort at Hope has recently closed.
There are a lot of ticked off people — but there are still those who would vote "Liberal" even if Gord was identified as a frequent visitor to Michael Jackson's Neverland ranch.
07 04 05 Paul Smith
One of the interesting things about this riding is that many believe Harry Lali wouldn't run again if it had a strong MLA. In fact, this riding could of been put solidly in the BCLibs column if there had been a strong MLA. Mr. Lali can win if he can capitalize on and anti-Campbell feeling which is fast disappearing according to recent opinion polls.
I think it will be a tight race but that the upturn in jobs will be a factor. For those who say the YL area has not felt the provincial boom have not driven through the area recently.
If the question is "do you want more jobs" rather than "do you hate Campbell" combined with a solid BCL candidate then the BCLibs will win. The Lali campaign will be all about Lali and not about Carol James and the NDP. I don't think that will work as Lali is not as well liked as his supporters would have you think.
31 03 05 Pundit
Since 1972 Yale Lillooet has always been a government seat.
Lali won in 1996 in his rematch with Rabbit (newly minted as a Liberal) but much of the Socred machine had split in two for that election.
Lali did beat Rabbit in a BC's last 2 person race (1991) though failed to get a majority of the votes (over 5% of the votes were spoiled in that election).
So, Lali is no Bill Hartley (NDP MLA for the riding from 1966 to 1975) and is not likely win.
30 03 05 BLJ
Some thoughts on a previous poster's comments on the 1996 Reform vote.
Since Jack Weisgerber (former Socred) was leader of the then Reform Party and, dependent upon riding demographics as well as B.C. locale, I think a safe assumption would be that the 1996 Reform vote would break either 3-2 or 2-1 for the Liberals.
Conversely, since Adrienne Carr was a former New Democrat, and if the Greens were not in the running, I also would think that it would be a safe bet to assume that the Green vote would break either 3-2 or 2-1 for the NDP.
30 03 05 PJ
This riding has gone with the province-wide winner every election since 1972. If the BC Liberals maintain their lead, I think that they should hold this riding.
02 04 05 Crystal Ball
As another mentioned, there is no split this time. Lali barely won in a two-way race in 1991 and benefited from a heavily split vote in 1996 - over 3000 votes to Reform. That Liberal Lloyd Forman is from Boston Bar is an advantage in this riding. The majority of the population is outside Merritt. Merritt to Lytton, Princeton, and Lillooet is like Toronto to the rest of Canada. The little guys want representation and Forman is one of them. Besides, Forman won the Liberal nomination in part because of the support he got in Merritt - over the Mayor who finished second. Lali is a political animal but he revealed his lack of self control when he attacked Patty Sahota by playing the race card. That won't sit well with the average voter in Yale Lillooet.
28 03 05 M. Lunn
This is an interesting riding in the sense it has a lot of small towns, which tend to be very conservative. Last federal election, the Conservatives got 49% in Okanagan-Coquihalla in the Eastern part of the riding and 53% in Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon in the Western Part. Now it is true Conservatives tend to be stronger in the Fraser Valley and Okanagan Valley, so if we reduce those numbers by 5%, we have 46% in this riding. At the same time, many of the small towns have been hard hit by the cuts therefore some conservatives may go NDP. It should be noted the Social Credit almost won this riding in 1991, and the NDP only won because the Reform Party got 20%. Whoever captures the majority of the Reform Party votes will likely win this riding. I am guessing both parties will get between 40-50%.
27 03 05 staceyrobinsmith.com
Harry Lali is the former New Democrat Cabinet Minister and he is running again in Yale Lillooet. The current BC Lib MLA, Dave Chutter, has not been a vocal advocate for the riding while the riding has been hurt quite seriously by the Campbell administration. Things like the BC Rail deal, the IHA's approach to health care admin and forestry offices getting closed in Lillooet have all hurt the region.
Many of the formerly active BC Libs are taking a hands off approach in this election. Chutter is not running again (disappointed with the process?)so they have nominated Lloyd Forman of Boston Bar to be the Lib candidate. Boston Bar is a small community on the south west corner of the riding and less in touch with the larger centres like Merritt (Lali's hometown and base) or Lillooet. Lali is making himself visible in the riding by attending community meetings and listening to people's concerns. Forman is fighting an uphill battle whereas Lali can point to specific things that he did get accomplished while he was in the cabinet.
This will be close but I would put my money on Lali in this race.
09 03 05 James
I'm originally from this area, and I can say that the NDP will not win here. The only reason Lali won the previous two times was because of the BC Liberal/Reform BC vote split in this traditionally Socred riding. As well, Lali was not an effective MLA for the riding. His name was in the local paper more for domestic disturbances at his house than for his work in Victoria.
08 03 05 BLJ
Yale-Lillooet (with various redistributions) was held by the Socreds from 1975 to 1991. Harry Lali of the NDP won the seat over the Socred incumbent by around 5% in the 1991 Socred wipe-out. The NDP retained the seat again in 1996 with Reform gaining around 20% of the vote.
Certainly a swing seat and one which has always elected a government member over the past 35 years.
26 02 05 M. Lunn
This is one of the more favourable interior ridings for the NDP, however I think the fact that Harry Lali is a Glen Clark loyalist may hurt the NDP. Harry Lali blamed Ujjal Dosanjh's more moderate approach versus the traditional hard left approach for the NDP's massive defeat. Considering that most voters rejected the NDP's hard left approach, there may be some reluctance to return to the NDP in ridings where they have a hard left candidate versus a centre-left candidate.
28 02 05 Nick Boragina
The econimic success of the province has not touched this riding in a major way, beyond that, many people here feel more aleinated from Gordon Campbel. I think the NDP will take back this historically strong riding for them.


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