Election Prediction Project

Penticton-Okanagan Valley
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
7:54 AM 08/03/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:54 PM 24/02/2005



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
BC Liberal
Bill Barisoff
Green Party
James Patrick Cunningham
NDP
Garry Litke
Independent
Jane Turnell

Incumbent:
BC Liberals:
BARISOFF, Hon. Bill
1996 Re-distribution:
Population:55740
Dev. from Quota:18.23%
Area (km2):2614
Pop Density:21.32

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)

62.73%
15.62%
14.16%
2.22%

1996 Result (redistributed):

36.73%
42.79%
12.45%
5.19%
1.80%

Surrounding Ridings:
Kelowna-Mission
Okanagan-Westside
West Kootenay-Boundary
Yale-Lillooet



26 02 05 M. Lunn
Under the previous boundaries, I would have said this was too close to call, but with the portions that the NDP were strongest in the old riding of Okanagan-Boundary being moved out of the riding to West Kootenay-Boundary, I expect the Liberals to hold this one. The Okanagan Valley is mostly made up of wealthy older people and there haven't been many hospital, school, or courtroom closures in the Okanagan valley. Even though the people in Osoyoos and Oliver may not be too happy about the liberals, there losses in those regions will be more than offset by their strong showing in Penticton.
23-Feb-05 Ken
Bill Barisoff will win the riding hands down. At the same time, the NDP really has nowhere to go but up compared to 2001 (here or in most other ridings) so they will do better than last time but it will certainly remain Liberal. The only chance the NDP would have in this riding would be if they had a high profile local celebrity of a candidate but that's certainly not the the case this time around and I honestly couldn't tell you who such a person would be.


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