Election Prediction Project

Maple Ridge-Mission
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
4:40 PM 22/04/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
4:40 PM 22/04/2005

Constituency Profile

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Carol Gwilt
BC Liberal
Randy Hawes
Chum Richardson
The Platinum
Keith Smith
Jenny Stevens
Green Party
William Stanley Walsh

BC Liberals:
HAWES, Randy
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:13.01%
Area (km2):4666
Pop Density:11.42

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Abbotsford-Mount Lehman
Fort Langley-Aldergrove
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
Port Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
West Vancouver-Garibaldi

15 04 05 M. Lunn
Randy Hawes is reasonably popular to start with, but of greater importance this is a bellwether riding that always goes with the winner meaning the liberals will be re-elected therefore Randy Hawes will be re-elected.
30 03 05 PJ
As has been partially summarized, the two north Fraser Valley ridings (which were combined before 1991 as "Dewdney") have gone with the winner every election since 1966.
In fact, with the exception of the would be Premier Dave Barrett's wins in in 1960 and 1963, Dewdney went with the province-wide winner every election since 1945.
If the BC Liberals hold their lead, they will hold this riding.
21 03 05 BLJ
One-half of the old Dewdney riding, this riding (in its various incarnations) has always resulted in very close battles. Socreds narrowly won in '79, '83, and '86, while NDP won in '91, and '96.
The NDP was weaker in this riding (as opposed to neighbouring Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows) in both '91 and '96 by between 3 and 4 percentage points while the Liberals were stronger by about the same percentage amounts.
I think one should also keep in mind that the federal NDP posted a very strong result in this area in 2004 (around 33%).
Of the two Maple Ridge seats, I think the Liberals probably have a slight advantage in this riding while the NDP probably has a slight advantage in the neighbouring Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows riding with their traditional support levels.
26 02 05 M. Lunn
Unlike the south side of the Fraser River, which is solid BC Liberal territory, this tends to be a bellwether riding. I would give the Liberals a slight advantage simply because Randy Hawes is a former mayor and has a fair amount of personal popularity. As long as the BC Liberals maintain their current lead, they should hold this riding, albeit by a much smaller margin. Of the two north Fraser Valley ridings, I would say this one is more likely to go BC Liberals than Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, although both will likely go with the winner.
27 02 05 A. Vancouverite
You have to wait until the NDP nominates their candidate to see how this riding will go. Unlike the other Fraser Valley ridings this (along with Maple Ridge-Pit Meadows more of a GVRD seat) is not a bible-belt seat, and the federal NDP candidate recovered strongly from a 13% result in 2000 to a 32% result in last election (and the provincial party is always polling higher). This riding will probably go with the government whomever that may be so right now the edge goes to the Liberals, but even so should the NDP nominate a strong candidate the incumbent Randy Hawes, might be vulnerable due to his lowly backbencher status and lack of community prominence.
28 02 05 Nick Boragina
This is closest race in the Fraser Valley. The local MLA, Randy Hawes should win this one based on personal his own popularity, not so much because his party has the support. My prediction is for Hawes, and thereore BCL to take this one.
05 03 05 BLL
This is a bellwether riding that almost always goes with the winner, so if the current polling numbers stand up (which are the most positive for an incumbent government this close to an election in quite some time, if ever) then this riding should stay in the BC Liberal column.

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