Election Prediction Project

Fort Langley-Aldergrove
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
4:30 PM 22/04/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:48 PM 24/02/2005



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
BC Liberal
Rich Coleman
The Platinum
Stephen Christopher Davis
NDP
Shane Dyson
Marijuana
Marc Scott Emery
Green Party
Andrea Meagan Welling

Incumbent:
BC Liberals:
COLEMAN, Hon. Rich
1996 Re-distribution:
Population:52440
Dev. from Quota:11.23%
Area (km2):234
Pop Density:224.10

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)

68.30%
10.82%
11.43%
5.27%

1996 Result (redistributed):

29.05%
47.58%
13.53%
6.69%
1.90%

Surrounding Ridings:
Abbotsford-Mount Lehman
Langley
Maple Ridge-Mission
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
Surrey-Cloverdale
Surrey-Tynehead



20 04 05 Kenny G
The riding of Fort Langley-Aldergrove demonstrates one of the strangest phenomena in contemporary politics. Low to middle income constituents supporting a conservative politician. We see this all over the world, in the US, the UK etc, people from more humble backgrounds supporting candidates that aren't necessarily looking out for the "little man/woman". What attracts the "poor" vote is the alleged values that the conservative constituent stands for: the family, the church, skeptical of abortion, gays, immigrants etc. What it says is that sometimes, economics/money issues - so trumped and heralded as being the be all end all in politics, sometimes is not...sometimes it is about values. So Shayne, here is a bit of advice if you want to play in Rich's sandbox. If you talk the same conservative talk about families, religion and all that business, and couple that with traditional NDP talk of helping the little guy/gal - you might actually make this race a little more interesting for what could promise to be the biggest route of them all.
12 03 05 Jordan@LangleyPolitics.com
Slam dunk for the BCLP. This is aptly named "Coleman Country" where traditional values, law and order reign supreme. The only challenge for the BC Liberals is whether they can break 70%.
23-Feb-05 M. Lunn
Part of the Fraser Valley bible belt, so easy Liberal win. Considering that unlike many of his counterparts in other ridings, Rich Coleman is a conservative in a conservative riding, this should be an easy win for the liberals. They are more likely to have trouble on the North side of the Fraser River or in Surrey, but not on the South side east of the LangleyéSurrey border


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