Election Prediction Project

Surrey-Tynehead
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
5:18 PM 20/03/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
7:03 PM 26/02/2005



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
(Links? See sponsorship details.)
NDP
Barry Bell
Marijuana
Donald Joseph Briere
Independent
Summer Davis
BC Liberal
Dave Hayer
Independent
Gary Alan Hoffman
Green Party
Sean Orr

Incumbent:
BC Liberals:
HAYER, Dave S.
1996 Re-distribution:
Population:47540
Dev. from Quota:0.84%
Area (km2):76
Pop Density:625.53

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)

60.95%
15.72%
9.33%
6.14%

1996 Result (redistributed):

33.63%
46.71%
7.48%
7.93%
1.03%

Surrounding Ridings:
Fort Langley-Aldergrove
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
Surrey-Cloverdale
Surrey-Green Timbers
Surrey-Newton
Surrey-Panorama Ridge
Surrey-Whalley
Surrey-White Rock



18 03 05 Cornpop
I would have thought this would be a shoo-in for Mr. Hayer, but seeing as Barry Bell is the NDP candidate, this could turn into a tough race. Bell came third in a very close three way race in the last federal election in this region. What will probably happen is that the voters in this region that went Liberal will split into the two respective camps... the question is how many will go where? In the end though, given the publicity that Mr. Hayer has gotten with the Air Canada verdict, I would say Mr. Hayer is going back to Victoria.
26 02 05 M. Lunn
Although may be not quite as strong as Surrey-White Rock or Surrey-Cloverdale, I believe the liberals will hold this one. Except for the very western portion of the riding, this riding is fairly conservative and is mostly composed out of what was Surrey-Cloverdale in 1996, therefore the Liberals would have won the riding by a comfortable margin had it existed in 1996. Add to the fact that Dave Hayer is very well respected amongst the Indo-Canadian community so he should capture most of the Indo-Canadian vote, whereas in other Surrey ridings most of the Indo-Canadian community will likely go NDP.
24 02 05 BLJ
Surrey Tynehead comprises some upper middle-class demographics, particularly in the Fraser Heights area. This seat, along with Surrey White Rock and Surrey Cloverdale, comprises the small "c" Surrey belt.
I would consider the only swing seat in Surrey to be Surrey Panorama Ridge.
24 02 05 M. Lunn
Using the 1996 numbers, it is pretty unlikely the NDP will win this riding. Even though they won Surrey-Panorama Ridge by 20 points in the most recent by-election, the NDP would have won that riding by 8 points in 1996 had it existed and lost this one by 13 points. In addition, the Liberals have Dave Hayer who is very popular amongst the Indo-Canadian community so the Indo-Canadian vote will likely go NDP in Surrey-Panorama Ridge, but liberal in Surrey-Tynehead.


Submit Information here
Return to - regional Index
Return to - 2005 British Columbia Prediction

© 1999-2005 Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com