Election Prediction Project

British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
10:16 PM 15/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:49 PM 24/02/2005

Constituency Profile

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The Platinum
Lee Anthony Davies
Dean Morrison
BC Liberal
Mary Polak
Chris Scrimes
Green Party
Kathleen Blanche Stephany

BC Liberals:
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:7.75%
Area (km2):93
Pop Density:546.24

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Fort Langley-Aldergrove

15 05 05 Jordon
This riding will go NDP. Langley voters are fiscally conservative and will look at Mary Polak's track record on spending. She is best known for banning books in Surrey elementary schools. These books were requested by a teacher to reflect the realities of today's families and to teach tolerance to his pupils. The fight went all the way to the Supreme Court of Canada, where the book banning decision was overturned in a decision that cited the need for families headed by same-sex couples to be respected. Chief Justice McLachlin dismissed concerns that children would be confused or misled by classroom information about same-sex parents. She pointed out that the children of same-sex parents are rubbing shoulders with children from more traditional families and wrote: "Tolerance is always age-appropriate, children cannot learn unless they are exposed to views that differ from those they are taught at home." The legal fees associated with Ms Polak's intolerence ended up costing Surrey taxpayers over $1,000,000.
09 05 05
Lynn Stephens was not a fundamentalist Christian and was a member of the "moderate" wing of the B.C. Liberals and she was well liked in Langley and always received very healthy support. Mary Polack is not a "local" and was parachuted in here. There is a large minority affiliated with the federal Conservatives and Christian right wing organizations that seems to hijack a lot of political parties here unfortunately and Campbell played right into their hands but that doesn't mean all or even most residents share the views of these extremists.
04 05 05 R Schwarz
The homophobic American lobby group "Focus on the Family" spent a lot of money on research and relocated their Canadian headquarters to Langley. While not all Langleyites share FOTF's intolerant views, enough of them do and will support Polak.
02 05 05
To the person who says people in Langley aren't very right wing, then I say prove it. Stop electing people like Randy White and Mark Warawa who are the most right wing members of the Alliance-Conservatives with huge margins and then I will believe that statement.
30 04 05 Parm
Having Polak run in Langley (and continuing to say how much she fits in here) plays into the typical, unfair stereotypes of Langley people being only right wing religious red necks who only can vote for the fundamentalist religious candidate. I guess next time, Campbell will parachute the Ayatollah Khomeni into Langley in order to keep feeding the stereotypes of the downtown Vancouverites.
25 04 05 BLJ
It was reported in the news today that former Langley Liberal MLA Lynn Stevens has decided to place her name on the ballot in order to run as an independent in Langley. Her intentions are not to run to win, but to obtain a severance package, which she is entitled to if she loses but is not entitled to by just stepping down. Makes one wonder if other MLA's running for re-election are of the same mind-set, that is not running to win.
26 04 05 V. Jara
Lynn Stephens has joined the race, but not to win
It is such a disgrace that the Gordon Liberals didn't allow a real Langley Liberal to run.
25 04 05 JC
Now the Election has gotten interesting, Lynn Stephens the Former MLA is running to collect a severence package and this could hurt Mary Polak severly, For One thing it will draw people who can't stand Polak's radical Social Conservatism right over to her, maybe NDP Voters will go over to Lynn just because they believe she has a better chance at beating Polak then Mr. Morrison, but Polak is in trouble.
25 04 05 Jason
I am a B.C. Liberal and agree that Mary P. will win the riding handily.
HOWEVER, I think parachuting her in here was a big, big mistake by my party and may come back to bite us (just like Randy White messed up Harper's campaign federally). Mary P. is the woman on the Surrey school board behind the censorship program to ban gay family references in the schools. Thanks to her, hundreds of thousands of dollars of taxpayers money have been wasted in court challenges to uphold exclusion and prejudice against a minority group (gays). Which group will be next? Even though I live here and operate my business here, I will work for other B.C. Lib candidates in other ridings and will not be voting. By the way, I am very sorry to see Lynn Stephens go as she did a lot for the people in this riding and didn't have the baggage the new candidate has. It is too bad Lynn didn't run again. By the way, I am not the only businessperson in Langley who feels the same way I do so maybe that will affect the vote.
24 04 05 M. Lunn
I don't think Mary Polak's social conservatism will hurt the party that much elsewhere since 90% of British Columbians probably don't even know who she is. It will only become an issue if Carole James makes it an issue which is unlikely since the NDP base is very different from the federal liberal base. The NDP relies heavily on working class voters who are quite often social conservatives, while the federal liberals rely more on upper middle class university educated types who fear social conservatism. Besides, Gordon Campbell has not enacted any socially conservative policies whereas Stephen Harper has never been prime-minister so no one knows what he will be like whereas we know what Gordon Campbell is like. As for those suggesting it will hurt Mary Polak in Langley, I should remind them that this riding elected Randy White in 2000 and Mark Warawa in 2004 with huge margins so social conservatism, while unpopular in most of BC, seems to sell well here. Besides if Stockwell Day can get 49% in BC in the 2000 election as a staunch social conservative, I am not sure how big an issue it is for the majority of British Columbians.
20 04 05 Kenny G
Mary Polak hurts the party. It is insulting for the Langley voters to have Gordon Campbell allow a non-Langleyite to run in the riding. What it says about us (BCLibs) is that we want our(wo)man more than we want a seasonsed Langley politician (perhaps Steve F, perhaps somebody else), intimately familiar with Langley and its people, to represent the people of Langley in Victoria. I also worry that Langleyites will see through Mary P's rhetoric. She claims, in her profile in the Advance, that she got into politics to help people, not to simply obtain power and prestige. Dean Morrison is going to be able to walk all over this BS. If she wanted to help people, why did she not stay in Panorama Ridge and help people there and earn her political stripes for May? Jumping ship and coming to Langley reeks of wanting to hold office for no other reason than holding office. It is also patronizing of Mary to walk in to Langley and basically contend that though not from Langley she is the best suited candidate to run in Langley.
The problems with Mary running in Langley are clear as GC has made Langley the first stop in his campaign, trying to rally Langleyites to Polak's side. My fear is that this will be in vain.
07 04 05 M. Lunn
Considering that Randy White won this in 2000 and Mark Warawa won this riding in 2004 and both are amongst the most conservative members of the Alliance-Conservatives, this should be an easy liberal win. As for Mary Polak's social conservatism, hurting her elsewhere in BC, I don't think that will be the case since the federal liberals also have social conservatives like Tom Wappel, Pat O'Brien, Paul Szabo, and Paul Steckle and that didn't hurt them. The main thing is unlike the federal Conservatives who have a socially conservative leader and their caucus is overwhelmingly dominated by social conservatives, the BC liberals only have a few social conservatives just as every party except the NDP has. Even though I agree the BC is probably the most socially liberal province after Quebec, British Columbians seem to overlook it more than people in Ontario do. Explain why Stockwell Day got 49% and 27/34 seats in the 2000 election and he is about as socially conservative as one can get.
31 03 05 Bev Massey
I see Mary Polaks nomination as a boon for the local New Democrat. Many people are polarized with her arrival and simply will not vote for this woman. I am looking forward to a change in Langley and will be working hard to see this take place.
30 03 05 JC
I really dislike Mary Polak and In a world where people had brains she wouldn't have a chance in hell, But so long as she runs under the liberal banner and she runs in Langley there is just no way she is going to lose. She may be a parachute candidate but seriously these are the same people who voted for Uber-Righty Mark Warawa in the Federal Election. Dean Morrison ran in this area against Warawa and there is no chance he's going to win.
29 03 05 A. Vancouverite
British Columbia, isn't like Alberta or even Ontario, British Columbia is mostly a socially liberal or libertarian place. Social Conservatism, of the Mary Polak variety, in British Columbia is largely confined to the southern Fraser Valley (and South Surrey and Langley) and a few outposts throughout the rest of the province. One of the reasons the British Columbian right usually wins elections over the NDP is because they put their social-wedge concerns to the side (ie abortion, gay marriage) and focus on money and social programmes (ie taxes and health care). Mary Polak signals that the conservatives within the right-wing coalition, the BC Liberals, are starting to take power. She did this all by herself, unlike Carole Taylor or Daniel Igali (more liberal people) who needed the premier to clear the way for them. With that in mind one can look back to times such as 1972 and 1991 when the NDP won, with a devided liberal/conservative, right. Mary Polak is clearly not popular amongst liberals, and to dismiss her influence upon urban right leaning liberals is a little dangerous. Nonethless she will still win this riding solidly.
29 03 05 JJF
The right getting crushed in Idiot Bible Land would be like the Fiberals getting crushed on Montreal Island.
But Lunn's Quebec analogy is way out there: Rural Quebec voters, perhaps outside of Quebec Mou and a few parts of the Eastern Townships, are not socially conservative for voting Bloc, a party that's more left-wing than the Liberals on both social and economic issues.
The Bloc is supported by rural nationalists, urban leftists (i.e. Gilles Duceppe easily winning a riding with a large anti-nationalist population), and working- class Francophones...None of these groups, at least in Quebec, are socially conservative.
Social conservatism died in Quebec with the death of Nazi scum Maurice Duplessis.
21 03 05 M. Lunn
Considering the Conservatives got 48% last election and the Langley MP, Mark Warawa is one of the more socially conservative members, I think Mary Polak's social conservatism will be an asset in this riding. Thankfully the few Social Conservative candidates the liberals have are all in the Fraser Valley and Interior where it won't hurt them as opposed to the city where it would hurt them. For those who claim Polak's social conservatism will hurt the BC Liberals elsewhere, I would like to remind people that many of the rural Ontario liberal MPs are social conservatives i.e. Paul Steckle, Roger Gallaway, Rose-Marie Ur, Raymond Bonin etc., and their socially conservative views actually helped them hold their ridings whereas the socially liberal MPs in rural Ontario mostly went down in defeat to the Conservatives. Like Ontario, Social Conservatism sells in rural or far flung suburbs while it kills a party in urban and inner suburban areas. Just look at a map of the last federal election and you will notice most rural areas outside Quebec are painted blue while most cities are painted red.
20 03 05 Bob Cline
While this is a Liberal strong hold, Mary Pollack is such an extreme candidate socially, that she'll win the NDP votes in places like Vancouver-Burrard and Fairview, the North Vancouver-Lonsdale, and the Burnabies where people don't vote Liberal because they're socially conservative, but rather because they like tax cuts. Look at what happened to Ted White. North Vancouver should have been a safe Conservative seat, but social conservativism chased votes to the Fed Libs. Mary Pollack will have the Randy White effect, chasing votes towards the Bart Healys, Craig Keatings, and Gregor Robertsons of the world. Please note those are three swing ridings that the Liberals can't afford to lose and the NDP is targeting to win. Mary Pollack will win in a landslide, but will Katherine Whittred, Harry Bloy, or Virginia Greene?
16 03 05 Cornpop
The biggest trouble for the BC Liberals here is that Polack is a parachuted candidate... that does not always go over well. Couple that with her social conservatism, which may or may not fly well in Langley, and the NDP could win by default here.
12 03 05 Jordan@LangleyPolitics.com
Traditionally, very strong BC Lib country here. The BCLP vote may go down slightly with Mary Polak parachuting in, but it's her race to lose. No other party has any form of organization here.
13 03 05
Mary Polak is a strong candidate, and is well known. I agree with the last commenter, Mary will get this seat come May 17th.
13 03 05 A. Vancouverite
Mary Polak is a pretty poor candidate, and the Liberals would've been smart to have picked someone moderate. She will probably have the effect of hurting them in other areas of the province such as swing ridings in the more socially liberal areas of Vancouver and Burnaby and help NDP candidates pad their totals in seats their likely to win. She'll help all NDP, and Green, candidates who will be able to say "see the Liberals have the one and only Mary Polak running for them -- how liberal are they really?"
Langley isn't really a socially conservative place, it's not really 'bible belt' so much -- it's kind of secular, the Fraser Valley bible belt is further east. All of this being said there's a bed rock of right-wing, basically never gonna vote NDP, support in this riding meaning the right-wing voters would have to split to elect a NDP'er. Mary Polak may be able to do poorly enough to allow the NDP candidate to come within ten points of her, by having moderate Liberal supporters cross over and support the NDP or third/fourth/fifth parties, nonethless she should win by around 10 points. It will be more intresting to see what her effect is on other ridings, than whether or not she wins this one.
10 03 05 KH
I saw on the news tonight that the Liberals chose Mary Polak to represent them in Langley. She's a lock, and given her profile, she could be cabinet material.
23-Feb-05 M. Lunn
Even though Lynn Stephens is not running again, I expect this should be an easy liberal win since Langley is a fairly conservative town. In fact interestingly enough, Lynn Stephens only won in the previous elections since she was running for a centre-right party. If she ran on her own views she probably would have lost since this is a conservative area, not liberal area. Although this time with Mary Polak being the likely candidate, they will likely have a conservative candidate. And unlike her disastrous campaign in Surrey-Panorama Ridge, she should be fine here.

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