mjf-Malahat-Juan de Fuca

Election Prediction Project

Malahat-Juan de Fuca
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
10:16 PM 15/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:27 PM 22/02/2005

Constituency Profile

Candidates:
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BC Liberal
Cathy Basskin

NDP
John Horgan

Green Party
Steven Hurdle

Democratic Reform BC
Tom Morino

Western Canada Concept
Patricia (Pattie) O'Brien

Incumbent:

BC Liberals:
KERR, Brian

1996 Re-distribution:

Population: 47170

Dev. from Quota: 0.05%

Area (km2): 2142

Pop Density: 22.02

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)

42.26%

16.10%

14.31%

1.41%

1996 Result (redistributed):

48.51%

34.30%

8.55%

5.02%

2.77%

Surrounding Ridings:
Alberni-Qualicum
Cowichan-Ladysmith
Esquimalt-Metchosin


	15 05 05	initial
A few days before the election, this riding is too close to call. Stephen Bradley, the former Green candidate who did well in Malahat Juan de Fuca in 2001 has thrown his support behind Morino. The Liberal, Basskin has no track record in politics; the NDP Horgan is tainted by his association with the gaming industry, dating from the Clark era, through to his firm's more recent efforts to bring slot machines to the Plaza of Nations. Morino, is well-known criminal lawyer, with a strong reputation as an honest municipal councillor, and is a lifelong resident of the area. His social democratic views, his links to former NDP Kasper's previous strong independent bid, suggest Morino (a former Gordon Wilson liberal) could poll support from a broad group of voters.
	14 05 05
Had Tom Morino been included in the debates, the DRBC may have had a shot at this one and also the liberals might have slipped up the middle and won it. But since 90% of British Columbians have probably never heard of the DRBC or Tom Morino, this will probably go to the NDP since this area is generally left-leaning although not as left-leaning as the neighbouring Esquimalt-Metchosin.
	10 04 05	Laurence Putnam
It's official - Morino won't be in the debates. Running approximately half a slate of candidates, they can't possibly poll that well either. Unity ran 56 candidates and got 3.3%. DRBC won't be so lucky. Morino hurts the Libs more than the NDP, and the NDP no-name gets lucky, running on James' Island coattails. Another valiant effort to bring a third party alternative to BC. If you can avoid the internal struggles that typified Reform BC, Unity, the BC Party, etc. etc. ad nauseum, well...maybe in '09, Tom.
	31 03 05	JC
Tom Morino got dealt a huge blow when the Media told him he would not be appearing in the debates with the other three parties specifically the NDP and Greens. However The Alberta Alliance was a party that got shut out of the debates in 2004 Alberta and they managed to win one seat. But Morino has a damn good chance still.
	01 04 05	Mark Robinson
Why? About DRBC: Being locked out of the debate de-legitimizes the party. True, the media is being quite unfair because the main arguement in previous elections for not letting the Green Party participate in the TV debates was because they had no seats. Now, DRBC has a seat, yet the media won't let them in, BUT let the Greens in even though they have a seat. The Greens will not do as well as the last election. They peaked last time because alot of lefties voted Green to spite the NDP. Won't happen this time. It will be a "left vs. right" election and the NDP will pick up many seats. This is one of them. NDP will take it.
	29 03 05	initial
This is one of six to twelve ridings where Democratic Reform BC has a clear change of winning. Tom Morino as DR BC Party Leader stands out from the pack in Malahat Juan de Fuca. He came within a few votes of winning here in 1996. Since then he has emerged as a winner in local municipal elections and considerably enhanced his political base.
	28 03 05	Pundit
With splits and such, this is a riding someone could win with as little as 35% of the vote.
	25 03 05	Laurence Putnam
Just to mix things up a bit... Frankly, I would say that if Morino gets into the debates, his odds of winning are somewhere between 3-1 and 2-1. So I'm not saying he'll win, but I'm prepared to give him decent chances based on this rationale: He's run in the riding twice, he's a municipal councillor (I believe) and last time he supported Independent Rick Kasper in the riding, who made a respectable showing. If he can get enough of his former Liberals, Kasper's people, etc., etc., ....it IS POSSIBLE to cobble together the coalition of voters that would be necessary to win. However, it is entirely contigent on whether or not he gets exposure out of the debates. If he does, then the two no-names he's running against will have something to be concerned about.
	22 03 05	M. Lunn
The NDP will still likely take this, just do the fact this is one of the strongest NDP ridings in the province. Although personality can be a big factor. Keith Martin after all won as the Reform/Alliance Party and despite switching to the liberals, he was still re-elected. Even if the NDP does win the riding, it certainly won't be with 59% since Moe Sihota had a strong level of personal popularity amongst his constituents which Maurine Karaganis doesn't. Likewise the liberals choosing Tom Woods means they will likely get more than 29%. I am guessing the NDP will get around 50% while the liberals in the mid to upper 30s, but those numbers could change substantially if it becomes clear the liberals will win a majority since people generally like having an MLA from the governing party as opposed to opposition party.
	22 03 05	Mike Mulroney
I agree with the anonymous prediction here, that it is too early to call a riding which narrowly leans NDP, but in which so many factors are in play. Obviously Morino will win votes that went BC Liberal in 2001: votes that would otherwise be expected to go NDP. If the DRBC are completely invisible, then the NDP has the best shot. The expectation of a strong Green result and of reasonable DRBC support makes this riding a complete tossup. This will be a riding to watch.
	20 03 05	Cornpop
The hopes and dreams of Tom Morino and the DRBC ride on one thing... whether or not he will be invited to the televised debates. Without this, Morino is finished even before it began. However, given that the Greens and the Unity Party were both invited to the 2001 debates, look for Morino there. His performance on the TV debates, if it is good, will give him way more publicity than Horgan or Basskin could ever dream of. Do not underestimate this. Gordon Wilson got 17 seats in 1991 because of his strong performance in that debate. Wilson and Weisgerber were able to win seats as leaders of their parties in 1996 as well. Their presence at the 1996 TV debate no doubt helped that. Morino has an ace up his sleeve in this riding, and it is up to him to play it at the right time.
	14 03 05	JC
I have not changed my prediction, This is one of two ridings the DRBC has a legitimate shot at winning, the other one is Surrey-Whalley. Morino may not be well known but it cannot be ignored that he is the leader of the DRBC and it will be a two-person race here between Horgan and him. The only question is Can Morino get his message out?
	10 03 05	Scott G.
If any ridings in BC go to anyone other than the Liberals or NDP, it's likely to be this one and / or Powell River-Sunshine Coast, where Green Party leader Adriane Carr is running. When a third or fourth party doesn't do well enough to elect (m)any other members, sometimes the leader can still secure enough recognition from the province-wide campaign to win his or her own seat. For example, in 1996 PDA leader Gordon Wilson and Reform BC leader Jack Weisgerber were both re-elected (along with one other Reformer), although unlike Morino, they were high-profile incumbents. Then, going back to 1975, Conservative leader Scott Wallace and Liberal leader Gordon Gibson were elected as the sole representatives of their parties. Cathy Basskin for the Liberals and Klaus Solterbeck for the Greens sound like decent but not spectacular candidates. In a traditional NDP riding with a tendency for picking mavericks like Rick Kasper, it's likely to be a race between Morino, a local councillor who ran for the Gordon Wilson Liberals in '91, and Horgan, who as one of the NDP's main provincial strategists has plenty of experience and the solid backing of his party. If Morino can emerge as a leader with substance, not just a perennial candidate, and if DRBC puts across an articulate and coherent platform rather than seeming like a coalition of fringe parties, then DRBC might win this one seat, and possibly but less likely might also retain the seat now held by incumbent Elayne Brenzinger. I predict that either Morino or Carr will be the lone third-party MLA in a legislature with 48 Liberals and 30 New Democrats.
	08 03 05	Nick Boragina
I think it's funny that people think the Greens can win much less any other 3rd - or sorry, 4th party. DRBC might well finish second, but not first. This is an NDP riding. The only other party that might win, is the Liberals, on vote splitting - not DRBC
	08 03 05	Sacha P.
Last election was skewed since Rick Kasper split away from the NDP to run as an independent, virtually assuring the BC Liberals a seat in this riding. This time around, DRBC is running. In addition to the Greens, it seems like enough of the vote would get split to allow the Liberals to win this seat. Morino should get enough press to get about 10% of the vote which I think would hurt the NDP more than the Liberals given their centre-left platform.
	24 02 05	Adam K
Good joke, DR isn't going to win a single seat. The two party system will dominate again.
	25 02 05
I think it is a little pre-mature to call this one for the NDP. While this is normally an NDP riding, with Tom Morino, leader of the Democratic Reform party running in the riding, he will probably get at least 20% and since the party is ideologically in between the NDP and Liberals, it is very difficult to predict at whose expense those votes will come from. Until we get a clearer picture of the support of the DRBC and where it is coming from, I don't think we can make any predictions. Although, if he were not running in this riding, this would definitely be a slam dunk for the NDP.
	21-Feb-05	JC Email:
This is going to be a very close race between the Liberals and the DRBC. I think Morino is going to win this race mostly because he can appeal to moderate voters and the fact that he is the Party Leader will help him win.

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