Election Prediction Project

Esquimalt-Metchosin
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
10:56 AM 07/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
2:47 PM 24/02/2005



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
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NDP
Maurine Karagianis
Democratic Reform BC
Graeme Rodger
Green Party
Jane Sterk
BC Liberal
Tom Woods

Incumbent:
BC Liberals:
HAMILTON, Arnie
1996 Re-distribution:
Population:46890
Dev. from Quota:-0.54%
Area (km2):99
Pop Density:473.64

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)

45.79%
30.03%
17.68%
1.29%

1996 Result (redistributed):

59.61%
29.14%
5.14%
4.00%
1.44%

Surrounding Ridings:
Malahat-Juan de Fuca
Saanich South
Victoria-Beacon Hill
Victoria-Hillside



04 05 05 Concerned Voter
Normally this riding should go NDP. But the Liberals have chosen Tom Woods: firefighter, policeman, founder of Rock Solid, giving him the edge in Esquimalt. Colwood and the Western Communities are in an economic upswing right now, giving Tom an advantage there. Not to mention the sympathy he's going to get because of well-organized attacks on his (and only his) lawn signs. It's going to be close but I think Tom will be the next MLA here.
02 05 05
Tom Woods is certainly a strong candidate, but this is a strong NDP riding. The NDP won by 30% in 1996 so there is no way the liberals can overcome that type of deficit. The NDP won't get 59%, probably not even 50% and the liberals will get above 29%, I am guessing 35-40%, but it will still go NDP.
02 04 05 Crystal Ball
I agree with Pundit. Tom Woods was a huge coup for the Liberals. Like Arnie Hamilton, he is a man of the people in that riding. The NDP candidate is more of a professional pol, having worked her way through the NDP machine and serving as a political staffer at the Legislature. Woods has an impressive record as a community guy and has done some amazing work with youth. He neutralizes NDP attacks on compassion. He walks the walk.
28 03 05 Pundit
Tom Woods will win here because he will have so many youth volunteers and is so popular with so many parents in the whole region. Maurine would have had an advantage as councilor from Esquimalt in Esquimalt, but Tom is so popular in Esquimalt that the NDP will be hard pressed to gain much in that area. The west side of the riding is doing better than ever.
24 03 05
This is the fifth safest NDP riding on the Island after Cowichan-Ladysmith, Nanaimo and the two Victoria seats. Whomever predicts anything other than an NDP victory is certafiable. First off, even if I admit that the Green candidate, and the Liberal candidate are good candidates it won't matter because so is Maurine Karagianis. She's been on Esquimalt city council for many years, and is pretty popular.
But supposing individuals don't matter that much (and even if they do at worst for the NDP it's a wash) lets consider this. The NDP got 30% in this riding, about 8 points above their provincial average. If they're leading on the island and this is one of their traditional seats surely they'll win? I mean this is ridiculous supposing 10 to 15 points of Moe Sihota's victory in 96' was simply for him as an individual that would mean Karagianis would still get 45-50%. And let's not assume the Greens will draw from the NDP, if 2001 results when they got 12% (17% in this riding) compared to the NDP's 22% (30% in this riding) are to be consider in conjunction with current polling showing the NDP at around 40% and the Greens still holding steady at 12% they aren't nessecarilly going to draw from the NDP, they are probably drawing from the Liberals as well -- or at least becoming a new alternative to people sick of both parties.
16 03 05 Scott G.
If I knew nothing about the candidates, I would expect this riding to go back to the NDP. Esquimalt, like East Vancouver, is one of the predominantly working-class urban areas in southern BC that tend to provide the NDP with its strongest support.
Bringing in what I know about who's running, Maurine Karagiannis sounds like a good choice for the NDP - a local city councillor who ran for MLA last time. With her previous experience as a candidate for the Greens, Jane Sterk can be expected to run a decent campaign and take some votes from the NDP. And the Liberal candidate sounds like a respected, altruistic guy, in addition to which, some people may vote Liberal out of sympathy with the retiring incumbent Arnie Hamilton, who's rallied from a series of devastating personal tragedies in the last few years.
Karagiannis is probably the frontrunner, but a popular Liberal candidate and an experienced Green candidate could cut into her lead, possibly enough to make this a close race.
15 03 05 DL
Unfortunately people seem to vote against something rather than for something; in this case the Gordon Campbell liberals have given them much to vote against. Fortunately, we have a "new look" NDP and a great candidate in Maurine Karagianis, which means those that want to vote for something rather than against something have a choice as well.
13 03 05 Mike Mulroney
The BC Liberals have nominated Tom Woods, a local firefighter, and one of the founders of the “Rock Solid” safety program for kids. The NDP have nominated Maurine Karagianis, the same candidate who lost to Arnie Hamilton in 2001. This riding went NDP in past elections in large part due to the personal popularity of Moe Sihota. The Green candidate, Dr. Jane Sterk, ran for the federal Green Party last summer; she should be able to hold and build on her recent support, which will siphon votes away from the NDP. The Greens should do well in Esquimalt-Metchosin, which will help Tom Woods to hold this riding for the BC Liberals.
13 03 05 full name
I know that this riding is a left-of-centre riding, and as such, does traditonally support the NDP. However, Liberal candidate Tom Woods does have a high stature in the Esquimalt "half" of the riding, as he is a well-known member of Rock Solid. Rock Solid is an organization made up of firemen, police officers and others who reach out to the community, especially to the local schools. It is going to be a very close fight, but I think Woods will pull ahead at the last minute with a few hundred votes.
06 03 05 Ken
I'm not so sure this riding can be put in the NDP column just yet. The Liberals just nominated what looks like a very strong candidate. Tom Woods is an Esquimalt firefighter, former police officer, and has done a lot of good work for youth in the community. He's going to give Maurine Karagiannis a real run for her money and while it will be very close, Esquimalt-Metchosin could go either way at this point.
23-Feb-05 JC
Maurine Karagianis is running again, this time however she will win due to a huge dip in opinion polls of the liberals.
23-Feb-05 M. Lunn
This is traditional NDP territory. Considering the Liberals only got 45% in 2001 and that the NDP got 59% in 1996, should be an easy NDP win. I do not expect them to get 59% this time simply because Moe Sihota is not running and many people voted for him due to his personal popularity as opposed to the party. In fact had he run in 2001, the NDP likely would have held this riding. Even though Maurine Karaganis may not have the personal stature of Moe Sihota, she should win without much trouble.


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