Election Prediction Project

Saanich North and the Islands
British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
9:19 PM 06/04/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
10:14 AM 10/03/2005

Constituency Profile

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Democratic Reform BC
Ian Douglas Bruce
BC Liberal
Murray Robert Coell
Christine Hunt
Green Party
Ken Rouleau

BC Liberals:
COELL, Hon. Murray Robert
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:7.88%
Area (km2):474
Pop Density:107.30

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Saanich South

30 03 05 Pundit
Murray Coell will win easily, he is personally popular and doing a good job. The interesting thing is who will be second? The Greens can and will target this riding while the NDP will have no resources to put into a riding that they know that they can not win. Liberals 50%, Greens 25%, NDP
02 04 05 RetroRyan
First of all, anyone who thinks the Green Party will win this seat must be smoking crack. You Green-supporting granolas need to understand that Sidney, North Saanich, and Central Saanich consist of alot of seniors and hobby farmers, and they are a natural "conservative" constituency.
Also, let's take a look at how Saanich North and The Islands voted in the last FEDERAL election (these are the redistributed results). If you add up all the polls from Sidney, North Saanich, Central Saanich and the Islands, you come up with the following:
Conservative: 11267, Liberal: 6840, NDP: 6206, Green: 6181, All Others: 91
The last PROVINCIAL election had the following results when the bootom fell out from the NDP:
BC Liberal: 15406, NDP: 5011, Green: 7211, Marijuana: 491, Independent: 257
looking at all of this, it is safe to predict that the Greens will likely win 6000 to 7000 votes again. The provincial NDP will do better this time, taking all the last federal NDP vote and adding some of the federal Liberal vote. I can see the NDP winnng about 9000 votes. Murray Coell will likely take at least 12000 votes again. The result is that Coell wins due to vote-splitting on the left.
And as mentioned by the previous poster, MLA Coell will probably take more votes than MP Lunn due to a slightly higher personal popularity.
01 04 05 Lokey
Im going to say that this will be a close race, but that the Greens will take it.
In the campaign they are going to begin to focus their electoral machine in this riding and a select few others to build a strong base and become the third party in the legislature.
This will be close, and this is the seat most likely to go Green in my opinion.
If the Greens can gain momentum and concentrate their efforts then I can see this being a Green win, otherwise it will go Liberal...NDP in Third
09 03 05 Scott G.
Doubt this will be an actual 3-way race, but should be a lively contest.
NDP candidate Christine Hunt can make use of her status as one of a very few aboriginal MLA candidates across the province (the only other aboriginal candidate I know of is Carole James, who is Metis) and her connections with the well-organized and politically active First Nations on the Saanich peninsula and Gulf Islands.
Many Saanich voters still remember Murray Coell as their mayor prior to '96. In the past 4 years he's handled challenging and largely thankless cabinet jobs like Human Resources and municipal affairs. I'd say he has a reputation as one of the more progressive and intelligent Liberals.
Finally, the Greens. The loss of previous provincial and federal candidate Andrew Lewis will be a setback for them (Lewis did well in both elections), but the Gulf Islands will still help this to be one of the 2 or 3 most fertile ridings for the Greens in the province.
Prediction: Greens in a close third place, with Coell returning by a reduced but still decent margin.
27 02 05 Nick Boragina
This provincial election is a 2 horse race, NDP vs BCL, and like the ADQ in Quebec, when races shape up to be head-to-head, people turn off 3rd parties. This happened in june 04 federally with the NDP, when many voters went to the Liberals. Even if the Greens were to gain 10% here, and even if the Liberals were to then drop 20%, the Greens would only scrape by with the narrowest of margins. I just dont see a 30% weighted increase in Green votes. It's nice to imagine and think about, but at the end of the day that's all it is, fantasy.
02 03 05
This is definitely the safest liberal seat on the Island. In fact it might be, although probably not, the only seat they win on the island. Saanich which contains the bulk of the population is fairly conservative so the liberals should win most of the polls on the mainland. The Gulf Islands are not as left wing as some think. While it is true the locals tend to be quite left wing thus going for the Greens or NDP, a significant portion of the population are seasonal residents who only live on the Islands during the summer and they tend to be conservative minded. Although I predict Murray Coell will probably get less than 50%, he will still win it. He actually gained very little over 1996 since much of the NDP support went over to the Greens. The NDP will pick up some votes, but mostly from the Greens as opposed to the liberals.
06 03 05 Erik Sorensen
During the last federal election I think much of the Green support in this riding came from those who wanted a change hearing the rumor that Andrew Lewis was a true contender. After Andrew Lewis came fourth I think the change vote will go NDP for this election as that is seen as the best chance to defeat Murray Coell. I think much of Murray Coell's solid support may have eroded during the last four years because many people in this riding are not in favor of changes that have taken place at Saanich Peninsula Hospital, and the old NDP vote will return to the NDP. Also now it has been announced that the NDP candidate is from the native community, she should get much of the native vote. It should be a close race.
24 02 05 Laurence Putnam
Oh boy, a three-way race in the makings here! I will agree that this and Powell River-SC are both possibilities for Green seats. (That's it) It could even be arguable that rather than attract back NDP support, the kinder, gentler "moderate" NDP could lose support to the Greens in a riding full of hippies.
Currently, I'll say that the BC Libs (Coell moreso than the Libs) win this one...possibly with just 35-37%.
You see the retired wealthy folks on the Island will remember to vote...the potheads and so forth are less likely to.
I think much of the possible Green success here will also depend on where Lewis comes out on the issue of Single Transferable Vote.
24 02 05 BLJ
This area also showed the strongest result for the CPC in the recent federal election and has traditionally always been held by a centre-right party with a considerable small "c" demographic. I would surmise that second place will be fought out between the Greens and the NDP.
23-Feb-05 Mike Mulroney
The Greens sure can bombard a blog sight, but they just can't win a riding. Coell is actually reasonably well liked on the Islands because, unlike the MP, he visits them fairly regularly. Even if the Greens win the Islands, Central Saanich, North Saanich and Sidney, which make up 80% of the riding by population, will go will go overwhelmingly BC Liberal again. Coell may not get a majority, but he will win the riding. The Greens steal NDP vote, not BC Liberal Vote; the question is whether the Greens can hold second place against an NDP that isn't as terribly unpopular as they were in 2001.
22-Feb-05 JC
This could be the next closest riding the Green Party could take, Andrew Lewis the Federal candidate won 10% of the vote last time here. It's extremely likely that Green Support could come from the NDP if polls show that it could be a green win.

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