Election Prediction Project

British Columbia 2005

Update/Mise à jour:
11:02 AM 07/05/2005

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
9:34 PM 22/02/2005

Constituency Profile

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Work Less
Denise Brennan
Green Party
Ian Gregson
BC Liberal
Laura McDiarmid
The Platinum
Catherine Millard Saadi
Will Offley
Stephen Payne
Shane Simpson
Social Credit
Carrol Woolsey

MacPHAIL, Joy K.
1996 Re-distribution:
Dev. from Quota:13.67%
Area (km2):14
Pop Density:3827.86

2001 Result:
(2001 Prediction)


1996 Result (redistributed):


Surrounding Ridings:
Burnaby North
North Vancouver-Lonsdale
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant

04 05 05 WE
Shane Simpson is a long time community activist with a solid record of speaking up for our community. His signs are all over the riding and outnumber the other candidates' by a significant margin.
02 05 05
I would love to see Laura McDiarmid win this, but I really cannot see this happening. This is simply too strong an NDP riding for the liberals to pull this one off. I think they will likely get more than 30% and the NDP won't necessarily break the 50% mark, since they only got 54% in 1996 when Joy MacPhail who had a certain amount of personal popularity was running. Interestingly, I think had Laura McDiarmid ran in 2001, she would have won this riding since it was very close and the liberals only lost since Daniel Lee was a weak candidate. If BC-STV passes, then she might have a good shot in 2009 since the ridings will be much larger (up to 7 MLAs).
01 05 05 Brent
If anyone thinks this riding will go to the Liberals in this election they are dreaming in technicolour. Remember, this riding (and Mount Pleasant) was held by the NDP in the last election despite the Liberal landslide and predictions to the contrary. Basing predictions on lawn signs on East 1st and Victoria Drive (which part of the drive??) are hardly good math. My prediction given history, recent provincial polling and economics are: NDP: 50%, Liberal:37, Green: 10.
30 04 05 Interested Voter
Drove down Victoria drive yesterday. During the last federal election this area was littered with Libby Davies signs -- it was a sea of orange. I saw perhaps 10% of the signs for Shane. I'll go further with my last prediction, I think the NDP will lose this one, and it'll be a shock against conventional wisdom.
27 04 05 MisterK
Despite the proliferation of McDiarmid lawn signs along First Avenue, the NDP will hold this riding with an increased margin. In 2001, Liberal candidate Daniel Lee won very single poll that bordered First Avenue between Nanaimo St and Boundary Road. He garnered over 55% of the vote in many of these areas.
The NDP will take a bit of that back in those parts of the riding, and continue their dominance in the north and northwest areas. This is where MacPhail in 2001 pulled the vote with anywhere from 50% to 80% in some cases. I cannot see the tide turning here.
26 04 05 partisanrightwinghack
Laura M is a funny, infectious personality who is exactly the kind of candidate you should have in a hard-to-win riding. It's a flier for the BClibs of course, but it is possible for them to win for two reasons.
First, Simpson is not Macphail. Joy was kind of shrill on TV, but is smart and personable, and the locals knew and liked her. But an unknown candidate will not have fertile NDP ground here, he'll have to earn it as she did. People who can afford houses in that area these days care about crime and the economy - BC Lib issues.
Second, many Canadian Chinese tend to be more socially conservative than the average, which is why the federal tories have been pursuing mainland Chinese and Taiwanese aggressively (with mixed success). Although neither candidate is particularly conservative, they may switch sides this time if Laura does her homework.
Who'd have thunk it - Joy Macphail's riding is up for grabs in 2005!
28 04 05 Matt T
Upon reading many of the comments posted here, it is quite obvious that many individuals have thrown political science, demography, electoral history and rationality out the window in favour of their own personal subjective assessments, that conveniently favour their own preconceived opinions. While I appreciate the ability of BC Liberal and Green supporters to "tow the party line and fight the good fight", you are going to get clobbered in Vancouver Hastings. Same thing goes for New Dems in the Fraser Valley.
This is a New Democrat cakewalk, much like Quilchena is a BC Liberal cakewalk. The NDP will take %50+ of the vote, Laura MacDiarmid is BC Liberal cannon fodder, and the Greens are a non-factor - they will take less than they did last time.
Final point - winning the "sign war" on one main street does not constitute winning the entire "sign war". Travel throught the entire riding and try to find BC Liberal signs on private personal propety other than East 1st - there are almost none, with the exception of absentee landlords and business owners (something a simple title search can confirm. This is actually a coherent BC Liberal strategy (and federal Liberal as well) to concentrate their signs on main avenues and pretty much ignore residential neighbourhoods.
26 04 05 MC
This is "Initial" again from below.
I live on 1st Avenue amid the Liberal signs. When you actually count them it's considerably less than every second house although I agree it seems like it at first glance. One trouble is that I've yet to see a Liberal sign (or a Green sign) on any of the side streets - literally none. (Judging by the signs in this riding, the election is between the NDP and the STV.) And all the neighbours - on this street with all the Liberal signs - that I've talked to are pretty upset by the freeway expansion, which effects this road more than anywhere else. I expect the Liberals to lose this poll by a *lot*, despite the signs. Winning the absentee landlord vote won't help them when they lose among the owner-occupiers - are they going to make it up among the tenants?
And yes, the NDP are canvassing (which is how I know what they're saying to Green supporters *cough*). We've yet to see any signs of Liberal volunteers although one neighbour said the candidate had left her card.
There are far more NDP signs in Kingsway than here. I don't think anyone expects the NDP to do better in Kingsway. All the Liberal signs are in places where they're highly visible to people from outside the riding. At least 80% of those Liberal signs were up by 5pm on the day the writ was dropped - i.e., they don't seem to be putting any more resources into the riding. My conclusion is that both parties have concluded this is a safe seat for the NDP. (Who'd have thunk it?)
24 04 05 Initial
I didn't recognize Laura McDiarmid's name (I have lived in the riding for a few years and the area for a decade), so I did a Web search. There's very little information on her. Her "grassroots activism" appears to be about a couple of downtown organizations (Gordon House, which is in Vancouver-Burrard, and PRIDE). She's also associated with the Musqueam band, which is as far away from here as you can get without leaving the city. There is nothing indicating she lives or has ever lived in the riding. The only record I can find of her having anything to do with this riding was issues connected to her position on parks board. And I'm told that she was the "only candidate" that didn't attend a rally against the proposed freeway expansion (a motherhood issue here, noone wants a massive influx of commuter traffic going through this residential area). The obvious conclusion is that she supports the freeway expansion - if she didn't, attending that rally would have been free votes. Overall, she seems much more interested in Burrard's or Mount Pleasant's issues than ours.
I don't think that's a picture of a "strong" candidate for this riding. I'll grant that I'm left-wing, but still.
Looking at the picture as a whole, at the municipal level the riding has always voted for the municipal equivalent of the NDP. Federally the only candidates that have ever beaten the NDP here have been left-wing federal Liberals and the riding is currently solidly NDP. Provincially it was one of two ridings to go NDP last time. And the Liberals can't even find a local candidate. No, the Liberals aren't going to win.
As for the Greens, the NDP campaign seems to be summed up by the sentence "Do you want to split the vote and let the Liberals in?" Worked for the Liberals against the SoCreds and Reform, and will be more effective for the NDP than it was last election, when everyone knew the Liberals were getting in regardless.
23 04 05 M. Lunn
Looking at the demographics of the riding and its past results this should be an easy NDP win. Yet if one makes the call based on the number of lawn signs, there are far more lawn signs for Laura McDiarmid than Shane Simpson. In fact 1st Avenue has a BC Liberal sign every other house. That does not mean the liberals will win, since they probably won't, but I don't think it will be as big a landslide as I initially thought. I should remind people Libby Davies narrowly won in 1997 and her larger margins in each successive election is largely due to her personal popularity. I still predict an NDP win, but if I were Shane Simpson I would get busy door knocking now since he is losing the sign war by a huge margin and if that translates into votes he could be in trouble.
19 04 05 FL
Laura McDiarmid is a grassroots activist with potentially more popular appeal than Shane. She represents a great choice for people who want more balance in government. Of course, it won't make any difference to those who vote party line rather than individual representation. With Ian Gregson also a strong candidate, and a good alternative for those who want more fiscal responsibility in government, this riding may be too close to call. I give an edge to Laura because she has earned trust with a number of constituents in this riding.
19 04 05 A. Vancouverite
The Liberals don't stand a chance in this riding. As we know they didn't win in 2001. This was their best chance to take it, and regardless of a poor candidate at the time, they did not take it therefore it's extremely unlikely they will now. Also during the federal campaign the NDP's Libby Davies crushed a former New Democrat, turned Liberal, Shirley Chan by a two to one margin. If the federal Liberals, running a candidate with a left leaning appeal, did so horribly it stands to reason that the provincial NDP, that out polls the federal NDP, will hold this riding by a large margin. Even though Libby probably won by a larger margin in the Vancouver-Mount Pleasant portion of the federal riding, it stands to reason that this riding, with a higher average income and higher turnout would’ve still elected her by a fairly substantive margin considering her overall victory.
Using the number I did for the Vancouver-Fairview prediction (using the UBC election forecaster) I made a few minutes ago (so please refer to that prediction page) the NDP would win this riding with 52.6% of the vote, to 31.6% for the Liberals, 13.5% for the Greens and 2.3% for the others.
McDirarmid might be a good candidate for the Liberals. However Simpson's prominence in fighting unpopular additions to the community such as slots at Hastings Park should give him a boost. And even if it doesn't I can't see the Liberals finishing within 18 points of the NDP. It's just too much of an NDP leaning riding for that to happen. I'd say it will go NDP by slightly over 20 points. In fact should the Greens run a campaign they might, although I wouldn't bet on it, challenge the Liberals for second place since this is not a hot-bed of right-wing thinking.
11 04 05 JC
Okay officially, this could be considered maybe too close to call, Three Very Strong Candidates are running here, (Shane Simpson is considered strong because this is Joy MacPhail's Seat) Arguably this might be getting a lot closer then expected, Ian Gregson is a very strong Green Party Candidate and had a very good showing last time, expect the very best again. This maybe too close to call. However the advantage is to the NDP due to incumbency.
06 04 05 JC
Liberals have a very strong candidate here in Laura McDiarmid, one person before called Shane Simpson an extremist and if that is the case, Laura might take this one because she is a moderate. However Simpson still has the advantage as this was Joy MacPhail's Seat
06 04 05 S. G.
The BC Liberals have nominated probably the strongest performing candidate they have ever had in this riding with Laura McDiarmid. She may have won if she had ran in 2001. Shane probably will end up winning at the end of the day, but he'll have to work harder than he thought - he'll win because people will vote for the party (NDP), not necessarily him.
02 04 05 MR
Face it, Raj Sihota was a far superior candidate to Shane Simpson. Shane has been hanging around for years and nobody wants him. It is telling that he didn't win the COPE nomination for city council in 2002 even though COPE didn't have a fill slate of candidates.
I'm tired of watching great women candidates lose to the old-boys network that fronts disaster candidates.
People are so disenfranchised in this riding that I'd be surprised if many voted at all. This doesn't help the NDP. The NDP will probably take this riding, but not by a huge margin, like the party SHOULD.
02 04 05 Mike Mulroney
While it can be argued that the BC Liberals could have won this riding last time if they hadn’t run such a poor candidate, there is little chance that the BC Liberals will take either of the ridings that the NDP won in 2001. Perhaps the race will be closer than most people would expect, as “Initial” and “Interested Voter” point out. Perhaps the BC Liberals would’ve won this riding in 2001 if their candidate wasn’t so poor and hadn’t gone into hiding. What people are expecting is an NDP landslide. What they might be surprised to see, if the BC Liberal candidate is strong and doesn’t give up, is a mere 10% margin for the NDP. The BC Liberals’ chance to win this riding has passed, and Shane Simpson is going to Victoria.
22 03 05 IGB
Yes, Joy isn't running this time, which means the NDP will be losing its highest-profile current MLA. However, I doubt this will matter much in Vancouver-Hastings. First, I would find it hard to believe that the NDP would lose any seats it won in the 2001 debacle. Second, the NDP candidate, Shane Simpson, has a lot of community activism credentials in the Hastings area, is a former chair of the City Planning Commission (and still a member), and seems like a good catch for the party. Third, let's face it, this riding is pretty much the last place the NDP would lose, it's pretty much the biggest area of NDP support in not only the city of Vancouver but the province as well. Big NDP win here.
13 03 05 Alltogether
Very sorry to disappoint the disgruntled Raj supporter but Shane will win with an increased margin. Raj supporters win just have to accept that they lost because the people that they signed up abandoned their candidate when they saw that Shane had a far superior resume.
08 03 05 Nick Boragina
This is one of the two seats the NDP took last time. If they cant take it again, they have some serious problems. Even though Joy is not running, I feel the party vote in this traditional NDP area is strong enough to push this one way over the edge, NDP win with 50%+1 of the vote.
05 03 05 JW
Didn't go Liberal in 2001, will definately stay ND in 2005. Shane Simpson's a solid candidate and will win by an increased margin.
25 02 05 Initial
Very close last time, will be very close this time. If MacPhail were running, her profile alone would let her back in, but with a new candidate, a lot of this race will come down to the Liberal candidate, and how effective he or she is at campaigning. Another riding where the Greens could play havoc for the NDP's hopes of recapturing a majority.
26 02 05 rockindude
With Ian Gregson running again and with a lot more experience under his belt, watch for the Greens to do even better in Hastings than 2001.
Gregson has union experience without the major anchors of his NDP competitor and he is regarded as one of the more lefty Greens given his English working class background.
The Vancouver media are doing a great job of ignoring the Greens, just like they did early on in the 2001 campaign.
Simpson has some big shoes to fill in regard to MacPhail and this could work against him.
This should be one of the more hotly contested areas in the city.
23-Feb-05 M. Lunn
However, if this went NDP in 2001, it certainly will this time around. In 2001, the NDP won mainly because of a weak liberal candidate, so if they had a stronger liberal candidate they probably could have won, but this time I cannot see this happening. I expect all ridings on the West side except for possibly Vancouver-Burrard to go liberal while all East side ridings except for possibly Vancouver-Fraserview to go NDP
22-Feb-05 Interested Voter
I'll go out on a limb and state that this one isn't as clear cut as one might think. MacPhail only eked out a victory by some 450 votes in 2001, and that was running against a candidate who was hidden from view for the last two weeks of the campaign. NDP have nominated their B Team with Shane Simpson, who only won because of a significant push in one particularly neighbourhood. Lots more well-off folk with $400K homes in the riding who aren't really thrilled with the prospect of a neighbourhood extremist as their MLA. Had the NDP nominate Raj Sihota, this would have been a slam dunk. Now it's up to the Libs to see if they can run a credible candidate.

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