Mise à jour:
4:22 PM 20/01/2006

La prévision a changé
6:04 PM 20/01/2006
Projet D'Élection Prévision
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Papineau
2006 - élection générale (Canada)



Profil de circonscription

candidats:
(Liens? Voir les détails de patronage.)
Canadian Action
Mahmood-Raza Baig
Bloc Québécois
Vivian Barbot
NDP/NPD
Marc Hasbani
Marxist-Leninist
Peter Macrisopoulos
Libearl/libéral
Pierre Pettigrew
Conservative/conservateur
Mustaque A. Sarker
Green/Vert
Louis-Philippe Verenka

Député:
L'Hon. Pierre Pettigrew

2004 Résultats:
Pierre Pettigrew
16892
Martine Carrière
16424
André Frappier
3603
Mustaque Sarker
1961
Adam Jastrzebski
1058
Christelle Dusablon-Pelletier
490
André Parizeau
252
IND
Jimmy Garoufalis
250
Peter Macrisopoulos
169

Pour des résultats historiques, voyez svp
2004 Projet D'Élection Prévision




Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer.
Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage

18 01 06 01/02/2003
A local poll by CROP-La Presse shows the Bloc ahead with 37 % of the vote with only 25 % for incumbent Liberal Pierre Pettigrew and 11 % for the NDP. However... there is reason to think that Liberal support is underestimated, especially in this riding which has many immigrants, and the strong Bloc showing in the last election was much of a surprise for everyone and can be explained by many Liberal voters staying home. The Bloc is reported by The Suburban to be investing $350,000 in this riding and of being behind those bizarre Haitian anti-Pettigrew demonstrations, word is getting out about this and it might help the Liberals in the end, especially as the Bloc would be better-advised to target non-immigrants who actually have a chance of voting for that party. Vivian Barbot's personality does not help her, as she is as despised as Pettigrew. Liberals are working very hard to keep this seat, they brought out literally thousands of supporters to vote in special polling (before the official advance vote) and the Barbot campaign has asked to cancel about a hundred of those votes because of some election worker giving out the wrong name for the Bloc candidate, which strongly suggests the Bloc knows they will need every single vote to win here (and that they are not winning in the way suggested by the poll I mentionned above). I personally expect a narrow Liberal win there.
17 01 06 PIERRE
Unlike ridings like Jeanne-le-Ber where the incumbent is far more popular than the Liberal party, in this riding , the most recent polls suggest that Pierre Pettigrew is as unpopular as his party.The loc is having a commending lead and will win this one.
17 01 06 Victor A.
Vivian Barbot ( BQ ) seems to gain momentum against the incumbent Pierre Pettigrew ( Liberals ). According to the CROP survey Barbot has the support of 42 % of the electorate while Pettigrew is 13 points behind at 29 %. The NDP is third at 14 % and the Conservatives are 4th. This CROP survey was conducted between the 11th and 14th of January. It looks like BQ will be able to win this riding.
17 01 06 JFB
Sondage CROP-La Presse du 17 janvier 2006 pour le comté de Papineau: Bloc 37%, Libéral 25%, NPD 11%, Conservateur 7%. Le Bloc et Vivian Barbot semblent donc se diriger vers une victoire.
13 01 06
If I was basing this just on the numbers, i would be predicting a solid Bloc win. But my time in the riding and my gut tell me that this will be amazingly close. Barbot was an interesting nomination for the Bloc trying to demonstrate immigrant support and scale up Haitien community votes after the GG appointment. (remember, Haitiens are French speaking and more open to the separatiste message than most other immigrant groups in Quebec). But from what I've seen, her campaign hasn't been that strong on the ground. But Pettigrew has no guarantee of support either -- since it looks unlikely that there will be a Liberal government, voters here have less reason to be enthusiastic about turning out for a cabinet minister's re-election. And who really thinks Pettigrew is interested in hanging around on the opposition benches? (One Papineau friend told me that she expects Pettigrew to give up his seat and head back to Paris if he wins but the Liberals lose the election... ).
In the face of an uninspiring campaign by the Bloc candidate, and negative trends for the Liberals in Quebec, look for a result as close or closer as last time... but at this point, I think the Bloc will eke out the narrowest of wins.
10 01 05 LJ Amundsen
"Vivian Barbot will get slammed by her families origin. The founder of the Macoute in Haiti." Nasty. But don't forget that politics runs in families and that all families have "black sheep", some of whom take risks to stand up against them. She might be running a small campaign, but, to have any immigrant at all is very valuable to the Bloc. Especially a Haitian who will have SOME friends in the community, stopping a shift to the Liberals because of the Governor-General. The Bloc aren't stupid and there must be a good reason for this nomination, possibly outflanking Pettigrew in some specific community we don't know about. What was Barbot's community work like? A slam against someone based on their family won't get Pettigrew far. Staying out of the riding, will. The guy does actually live in Paris basically.
It's a close call given the vast rise in the Bloc vote and the drop in the Liberals'. A smart Bloc candidate here would try to find ways to get some federalists onside.
The sheer number of fringe candidates here is also a factor. The Bloc has fewer ways to lose their vote than the Liberals. And the Bloc has hit very hard on asking which candidates in Quebec got money from the adscam. Many think Pettigrew was one of them. After all, he was a Chretien crony too.
A younger vote may go Bloc, people may vote for a woman over a man given the exchange on the leadership debate, and the Cabinet profile doesn't do that much for Pettigrew as it's Foreign Affairs, by definition dealing with people elsewhere. It helps him with immigrants who the Liberals don't need much help with. And then there's the ubiquitous snowstorm. I say Bloc.
08 01 05 Cormoran
Le député sortant Pierre Pettigrew est handicapée par son appartenance au Cabinet d'un gouvernement qui attire les scandales de corruption comme un aimant. Le nom de Pettigrew a été évoqué dans cette histoire et risque de coller à lui jusqu'à la fin de la campagne. Il sera probablement l'un des premiers emportés par l'effondrement des Libéraux au Québec.
De son côté, Vivian Barbot profite à plein de son statut de candidate- vedette. Ancienne présidente de la Fédération des Femmes du Québec, elle projette une image de progressite qui correspond bien au profil sociologique de la circonscription. Son identité de québécoise d'origine haïtienne est aussi un atout au moment où le Bloc Québécois effectue une percée réelle auprès des communautés culturelles.
10 01 06 LJ Amundsen
"Vivian Barbot will get slammed by her families origin. The founder of the Macoute in Haiti." Nasty. But don't forget that politics runs in families and that all families have "black sheep", some of whom take risks to stand up against them. She might be running a small campaign, but, to have any immigrant at all is very valuable to the Bloc. Especially a Haitian who will have SOME friends in the community, stopping a shift to the Liberals because of the Governor-General. The Bloc aren't stupid and there must be a good reason for this nomination, possibly outflanking Pettigrew in some specific community we don't know about. What was Barbot's community work like? A slam against someone based on their family won't get Pettigrew far. Staying out of the riding, will. The guy does actually live in Paris basically.
The sheer number of fringe candidates here is also a factor. The Bloc has fewer ways to lose their vote than the Liberals. And the Bloc has hit very hard on asking which candidates in Quebec got money from the adscam. Many think Pettigrew was one of them. After all, he was a Chretien crony too.
A younger vote may go Bloc, people may vote for a woman over a man given the exchange on the leadership debate, and the Cabinet profile doesn't do that much for Pettigrew as it's Foreign Affairs, by definition dealing with people elsewhere. It helps him with immigrants who the Liberals don't need much help with. And then there's the ubiquitous snowstorm. I say Bloc.
10 01 06 Sébastien Ayotte
Complètement d'accord avec ce que CL a mentionné précédemment. La campagne de Pettigrew ne va nulle part et l'élite haïtienne s'est rangée derrière le Bloc avec le ralliement du regroupement des jeunes professionnels et gens d'affaires de la communauté haïtienne.
05 01 06 CL
Pettigrew a tout fait pour être impopulaire. Sa déclaration sur les "losers" et le mini-scandale sur son chauffeur lui seront fatals, déjà qu'il n'avait pas une avance très confortable. De plus, le vote "anti-souverainiste" a été quelque peu divisé avec les Conservateurs, avantageant le Bloc.
31 12 05 Bear Without Ape
Still too close to call. Pettigrew IS personally popular...well with some...I don't think the guy who attacked him in the Cote Vertu metro station was part of his fan club, but that may win him some sympathy votes. Also the BQ has been quite disorganized in this riding, probably spoiling a perfectly good chance to oust a cabinet minister. This close race will probably rally Federalist voters who stayed home in 2004 to come out and keep the seperatists from taking another seat.
16 12 05 On The Ground
Well after all the huffing and puffing by the BQ about taking this riding from Pierre Pettigrew and the Liberals nothing much has developed.
Barbot is running a small time campaign. Her office has one or two workers all day long while you can see a steady stream of volunteers coming and going from Pettigrew's HeadQuarters.
Pauline Marois came to help out Barbot in the riding and visited a senior's residence in the Villeray section (Bloc stronghold) of the riding. Every second voter that Marois shook hands with told her that they were voting Liberal!
A couple of days later Gilles Duceppe dropped in the riding on his way to Vancouver. 45 people showed up for Barbot's leader, including a dozen Liberal organizers who were there to take notes.
Barbot is a bust!
14 12 05 specialiste
notwithstanding all the comments made by bloc militant final facts are:
- The bloc is not so organized in Papineau, nobody in their headquarters and also bad brochure (bad french)
- Vivian Barbot will get slammed by her families origin. The founder of the Macoute in Haiti
- The separation issue which she is raising will be a killer with Italians, greeks and other communities
At the opposite
Pettigrew is campaining for the last six month, he delivered for the Italian (tremalia and Redress), he is supportive of social project in St Michel and working hard in Parc Extension to bring out the vote
Pettigrew
Surely it will be tough in Villeray but he counting on a much better organisation this time around already more than 300 liberal voted ! compare to 10 bloc and 10 conservative at the special vote.
If he continue his work he will win that big fight.
04 12 05 Patrick
Cette foic-ci s'en est fait de Pierre Pettigrew. Sa déclaration au sujet des "losers" va lui enlever facilement la mince majorité qu'il détenait en plus de l'effet Gomery sur le parti Libéral. Victoire Bloquiste dans Papineau.
29 11 05 Martin Lamontagne
Lors du dernier scrutin Martine Carrière a failli battre Pettigrew mais elle due s'incliner par 400 voix malgré qu'elle soit une pure inconnue. Papineau est très interculturel, on remarque un glissement progressif de l'électorat vers le PQ Bloc. C'est la fin des votes monolithiques etnique = fédéralistes-libéraux.
Vivian Barbot est haitienne d'origine et a longtemps siegé sur le Conseil de la Souveraineté depuis ses débuts. Elle est l'ex présidente de la fédération des femmes du Québec. Elle est un excellent choix pour le comté et risque de l'emporter.
21 11 05 Ex-liberal
The Bloc chose as their candidate someone who manages to make Pierre Pettigrew look like a decent politician, which is quite a feat. Had the Bloc chosen a better candidate they would have picked up this seat, but they didn't and so Pettigrew will keep his seat even though the race will be close again.
20 11 05 JFB
Je maintiens ma prédiction du printemps dernier. Vivian Barbot a été confirmée comme candidate du Bloc. Femme noire fortement connue, elle ira chercher une part non négligeable de l'électorat allophone qui, habituellement, vote libéral. Sans compter que Pettigrew n'arrange pas les choses et se complique drôlement la vie. Ses dernières déclarations, dont celle des "losers" québécois n'a rien pour le rendre sympathique dans les secteurs francophones de la circonscription. Courte victoire bloquiste par 1000-2000 voix.
07 11 05 Vote NDP
The Liberals are going to lose Quebec by a lot more than the 16 points they lost it by in 2004 and in 1993. So a winter victory for the Bloc here is a no brainer, and even if staunch separatist and radical union activist André Frappier experiences a resurgence in popularity (and does well outside of Parc-Extension) AND the Liberals recover a bit by spring, the Bloc will pull a Gagliano and STEAL this riding from the Libs.
16 11 05 Rebel
There is a great controversy where Pettigrew lives (normally). In Ottawa during important votes when Parliament is in session...and in Paris for much of the rest. That leaves Papineau as the least likely place to see their member of parliament in the flesh. He may have some prestige as Foreign Affairs Minister, but not much personal popularity. He is not a "petit gars" de Papineau by a long shot. With an election looming and the Liberals way back in Quebec, he looks like a goner.
21 06 05 Cyclone prime
Je ne connais pas beaucoup ce comté, mais:
Moins de 1000 votes de différence entre les Libéraux et le Bloc
+
Bloc plus populaire partout au Québec que jamais avant
=
Ce comté va au Bloc. Le contraire, avouons-le, serait très surprenant.
18 05 05 David Pagé
Cher "spécialiste". Il est vrai que le vote libéral dans Parc-Extension est légendaire et massif MAIS... Il est également vrai que lors de la dernière élection générale fédérale, et lors de la partielle du Québec dans Laurier-Dorion, la TRÈS GRANDE MAJORITÉ des électeurs sont restés chez eux. Pourquoi, la réponse est simple... près de 85% des électeurs de ce secteur ne parlent ni anglais, ni français et ne savent donc pas que des élections ont lieu... si des élections doivent avoir lieu le 27 juin, gageons qu'une fois de plus ils resteront tranquillement chez eux le jour du vote alors que les travailleurs, étudiants et professionels payeurs de taxes de Villeray et de Ville Saint-Michel iront eux voter en masse. N'oublions pas que, si on fait abstraction de Parc-Extension, les francophones ( qu'ils soient d'origines haïtienne, sud-américaine, africaine ou québécoise ) représentent près de 80% des électeurs et correspond donc aux autres comtés environnant. Si les électeurs de Parc-Extension restent chez eux... Mme Barbot sera élue.
18 05 05 Bear and Ape
The only reason why this riding is not a BQ seat already is because of Pettigrew's popularity. Sorry for him but he stands no chance with the Liberals so low in Quebec. The BQ candidate is sharpening his knife as we speak and we are certain that Paul Martin is looking for some nice embassy somewhere to send Pettigrew after the next election.
17 05 05 Aric H
This riding will probaby go Bloc because of the closeness of the vote last time but I suppose there could be a small Liberal win if Pettigrew stays. He does have a profile as Foreign Affairs Minister and he will be on t.v. a lot starting tomorrow when the Queen comes to visit Canada. Could keep him in the public eye. We have to remember though that it is not known whether or not he is running again yet. He hasn't made up his mind. If he vacates, the riding will go Bloc because of the loss of incumbency advantage. With Pettigrew staying there is a small chance it could stay Liberal. This is like the situation in Ottawa West-Nepean in Ontario where it would have been a close race if the incumbent Catterall had stayed, but now will go to the Conservatives for sure because she is retiring.
13 05 05 Robert Daniel
Do I need to submit a basis for prediction here? How about this: eight previous posts predicted Bloc, one thought the Liberals maybe might win. Out of all 21 seats the Liberals hold in Quebec now this was the one with the second lowest margin of victory last time, if I am not mistaken.
Does anyone hear a "flushing" kind of noise?
12 05 05 specialiste
Premierement. M. Pettigrew si on anyle bien les resultats n'a pas fait le plein de vote dans Park Extension. Il a sorti 9000 voix de moins qu'en 2000. Les bloquistes n'ont pas progressé. Malgré le scandale je crois que M. Pettigrew fera le plein de vote dans ses clienteles cibles. De plus le dossier de la RAI devrait être réglé et ainsi lui apporter des votes. Finalement en 2004 l'organisation n'etait pas a point.
10 05 05 JFB
Avec Vivian Barbot comme candidate bloquiste, je donne peu de chances à Pettigrew. Barbot ira chercher une part de l'électorat allophone qui, habituellement, vote libéral. Ce n'est pas pour rien que Pettigrew a lorgné vers l'OEA. Barbot l'emportera sans doute avec une majorité de 1000-2000 voix.
06 05 05 JC
Pettigrew is well respected and extremely popular, despited this being a close race he'll hold on, he's well liked with the grass roots.
06 05 05 RL
La candidate du Bloc est Vivian Barbot: c'est une candidate vedette! Avec les résultats de l'an passé et les sondages actuels, ainsi que l'équipe de militants qu'amènera une telle candidature, le Bloc peut aisément espérer une victoire dans ce comté, à moins d'un revirement extraordinaire de la situation politique...
03 05 05 Brandon
Cabinet Minister Pierre Pettigrew won by 400 votes over the Bloc Quebecois last time around. Those votes had more to do with his personal popularity. He now isn't running for re-election. He is avoiding the enevitable---that Papineau isn't going to be Liberal for next time.
03 05 05 JB
Avec Vivan Barbot comme candidate bloquiste, nul doute que Pettigrew va être battu... Je prévois une victoire d'environ 3000 voix.
02 05 05 Shane
Pettigrew just barely hung on here in 2004. Rumour has it that he may not be running again. Regardless of this fact, this riding is going to the Bloc Québécois.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
If I were Pierre Pettigrew, I would take the position as chair of the OAS since he is definitely going to lose his seat this time around as the liberals continue in freefall in Quebec.
26 04 05 Neal
This is Pettigrew's last hurrah. He will go down this time. He took a once-safe Liberal chateau-fort (andre ouellet's fiefdom) which used to return Liberals with 5 figure pluralities, to a @500 vote squeaker.
He won't be so lucky this time.
26 04 05 Benjerry79
Nous sommes passés à moins de 5-600 voix d'avoir une vendeuse de beingnes du Dunkin Donuts au Parlement fédéral. Papineau est désormais un comté prennable pour le Bloc qui ne ménagera aucun effort pour arrancher une «forteresse libérale». Le scandale des commandites frappe là où sa fait mal! Une victoire électorale du Bloc est à prévoir de justesse.
26 04 05 Neal
Pettigrew apparentl;y sees the handwriting on the wall, and is going to go while the gettin's good, accoding to thje CBC he's in line to get a cushy job at the OAS.
Move this one firmly into the Bloc column.



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