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3:09 PM 12/10/2008

Projet D'Élection Prévision

Laval-Les Îles
élection générale (Canada) - 2007

Profil de circonscription

New Democratic
El-Masri, Zahia
Evereklian, Agop
Folco, Raymonde
Bloc Québécois
Jetha, Mohamedali
Neil, Brent
Trottier, Sylvain A.

Raymonde Folco

2006 Résultats:
Raymonde Folco **
Christiane Pichette
Qais Hamidi
Alain Giguère
Theodore Kouretas
Polyvios Tsakanikas

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats

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08 10 12 MR
There's a strong Armenian population in this riding, the conservative candidate is of Armenian origin which will scratch lots of votes from the Liberal candidate. The bloc will be favoured in this federalist vote split.
08 10 10 Joshua Zuckerman
I think this will be a Liberal hold. I don't know why they wouldn't hold it when they still have strong numbers in Montreal. Not sure why this riding hasn't been called yet.
08 10 10 Paul Tremblay
This is a strongly Liberal riding. The incumbent MP is a Liberal and she is the Liberal candidate. There is nothing special about the Bloc candidate which would encourage people to vote for him as a person, nor is there any sort of local issue that would encourage voters to switch their votes to the Bloc or to any other party that they would not normally vote for. Liberal win here, end of story.
08 10 07 Stéphane Gaudet
Ce siège résiste à toutes les vagues, même quand les libéraux sont vraiment rayés de la carte partout ailleurs. Aucune raison que ce ne soit pas le cas encore une fois, surtout maintenant que les libéraux connaissent un regain de vie au Québec.
08 09 29
Les libéraux sont en déroute et vont perdre des votes en faveur du NPD, combiné avec la remonté bloquiste le bloc pourrait faire un gain dans ce compté.
08 09 11 P.P.
This is the most multi-ethnic riding in Laval. This is Liberal country. There is also a high proportion of elderly people.Raymonde Folco has always done well with this group of people. If ever, Raymonde Folco were to lost, i think the NDP would win the riding.
08 03 08 A.S.
At 17%, the CPC actually did *less* well here than any of the other Laval ridings--perhaps because there was a Liberal incumbent to absorb a lot of the non-Bloc vote. Thank heaven for Chomedey; it's what saved this seat for the Grits back in 1993 and most recently in 2006--but I'm barely reluctant to offer a Grit prediction, and only on grounds of the party's apparent ill-health; still, the fact of BQ not cresting a third of the vote must cause token comfort in the Grit camp. But what, then, of the Tory vote--or, in Mulcair's old turf, the NDP vote for that matter? With all of that in play, don't be surprised if Folco sinks to a 2006 Hull-Aylmer victory share...
07 09 19 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
We're not surprised that the CPC did well here in the last election. Recall that prior to the uniting of the right the PC did very well in Laval and actually Federalist vot splitting between the PC and Liberals prevented allowed the BQ to keep Laval Center and Laval East. Laval West (now Laval les Iles), which contains Chomedey, went solidly Liberal. A closer race with the CPC coming second? Very possible! We would not call for Liberal downfall any time soon here (or in most other ridings they hold) as defeating a long-time incumbent in a general election is MUCH harder than winning a vacant riding in a byelection (a la Mulcair in Outremont).
07 08 18 binriso
Whoops I guess I made a couple mistakes last time.
Interestingly, the CPC did pretty well here last time for a Montreal Laval riding and the ADQ did really well in most of Laval outside of the Chomedey riding. Perhaps a CPC 2nd place is a possibility if the BQ votes goes down enough but it will be a Liberal win nonetheless.
07 08 11 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Folco was never in any real trouble. Mulclair and the NDP knew that and is probably why he's running in Outremont (it is a long shot in a byelection let alone a general election). If Folco was able to ward the BQ in the Liberal disaster that was the '06 election, then she (yes binriso, Raymonde is a woman, not a man) will easily hold her own in the next election.
07 06 14 binriso
Muclair isn’t running here. Raymonde Folco will win easily, which he would’ve done whether or not he was challenged by the NDP star candidate.
07 05 11 M.C.
Les conservateurs et le NPD ont un point en commun: ils ne réussiront jamais à s'imposer dans Laval/Les Îles!! L'ex-député du PLQ, maintenant candidat du NPD Thomas Mulcair ne réussira pas à se faire élire dans le bastion libéral qu'est Laval-Les Iles (ni même dans Outremont). Raymonde Folco a eu chaud en 2006 mais au prochain scrutin, elle sera réélue avec une majorité de plus en plus imposante (avec 10,000 voix de majorité ou plus).
07 03 30 J.F. Breton
Il est effectivement trop tôt pour prédire qui remportera les élections ici. L'ancien député libéral québécois, Thomas Mulcair, a été approché par quatre partis politiques fédéraux. Il pourrait bien se présenter pour les Conservateurs, ou encore le NPD... ce qui pourrait créer un «Phil Edmonston no 2» au Québec (dans Chambly à l'époque). Personnellement, je serait très à l'aise avec une candidature de Mulcair pour les Verts, étant un ancien ministre de l'Environnement. Tout est possible... pour l'instant, je ne donne pas Folco gagnante ici. Too close to call!
07 03 29 P.P.
Although the A.D.Q. did well in the western part of the riding, they had little effect on the eastern part. This will remain a liberal stronghold
07 03 26 Smok Wawelski
It's early days yet, but there is talk that former MNA Thomas Mulcair may run for the NDP federally. While the NDP has no organization to speak of, Mr. Mulcair does have loyalists from his days as a Quebec Cabmin and MNA, and this may help him mount a serious challenge to Raymonde Folco.

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