La prévision a changé
3:37 PM 30/09/2008

Projet D'Élection Prévision
www.electionprediction.com

Outremont
élection générale (Canada) - 2007



Profil de circonscription

candidats:
Liberal
Dhavernas, Sébastien
Conservative
Laloshi, Lulzim
New Democratic
Mulcair, Thomas
Green
Pilon, F. Monsieur Corde à linge
Bloc Québécois
Valdivia, Marcela

Député:
Thomas Mulcair

2006 Résultats:
Jean-C. Lapierre **
14282
Jacques Léonard
11778
Léo-Paul Lauzon
6984
Daniel Fournier
5168
François Pilon
1957
Eric Roach Denis
101
Philip Paynter
94
Linda Sullivan
88
Yan Lacombe
85
Xavier Rochon
34

prévision/résultats historiques
06 prévision /04 résultats
04 prévision /00 résultats




Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer.
Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage
08 10 10 Paul Tremblay
24.200.64.139
Since my last post here on September 12th most people have predicted an NDP victory except for a few people who behave like they were working on the Liberal campaign.
I have serious doubts about those pro-NDP predictions. Robert C. has very good points regarding the La Presse poll. However that poll exists whether it is accurate or not and there is a chance that separatist voters have been encouraged to vote NDP because of it.
The anglophone vote will decide the election. Mulcair was criticized for supporting a Bloc bill implementing Bill 101 in Quebec at the federal level. However the Liberal candidate has voted Yes in 1995 and it remains to be seen whether he is seen as credible enough by anglophones who might be pissed off by Mulcair's opinions on the proposed federal equivalent of Bill 101.
The race is still too close to call as far as I'm concerned.
08 10 08 Robert C.
216.252.79.39
Ce que je disais le 30 septembre se confirme sur le terrain : contrairement a ce qui a eu lieu lors de l'election partielle il y a un an, les electeurs liberaux iront voter en grand nombre.
Aussi, la campagne liberale montre beaucoup de signes de vigueur : affichage plus intensif et original ; larges espaces publicitaires avec un message clair et percutant dans les journaux de quartier et dans le journaux des communautes ethniques ; le candidat liberal Dhavernas est partout visible dans les rues et il visite aussi des groupes communautaires importants de la circonscription qui n'ont jamais entendu parler de Mulcair et qui ne l'ont jamais vu depuis un an ; il y a aussi beaucoup de gens au comite electoral des liberaux.
Aussi, des electeurs traditionnels du Bloc telephonent frequemment au comite liberal pour dire qu'ils vont voter Dhavernas pour empecher un gouvernement Harper majoritaire et pour dire qu'ils sont tres opposes a Mulcair, qui avait ete tres agressif contre les souverainistes durant toute sa carriere politique.
En plus, le journal anglophone The Suburban denonce durement les collusions de Mulcair avec les integristes islamistes, ce qui ne l'aidera pas du tout aupres des electeurs anglophones et des nombreux musulmans moderes du comte, dont un bon nombre avaient vote pour lui en 2007, et encore moins auprès des francophones ‘de souche’ qui sont opposes aux revendications des integristes religieux qui cherchent a imposer leurs dogmes a la societe quebecoise.
Donc, je pense plus que jamais que c'etait une erreur pour ElectionPrediction.org de declarer trop vite que Mulcair sera elu. La tendance de cette derniere semaine de campagne est nettement liberale, et la situation dans Outremont est clairement redevenue ‘Too close to call’. Le 14 octobre au soir, Outremont risque donc de faire partie des circonscriptions sur lesquelles ElectionPrediction.org se sera trompe.
08 09 30 Robert C.
216.252.79.183
Le sondage de La Presse est assez douteux, avec un ?chantillonnage assez r?duit. Mais en tout cas, s'il comporte quelque v?rit?, le sondage signifie qu'en ? peine 2 semaines de campagne, S?bastien a rogn? de pr?s de 10 points le score de Mulcair aux ?lections partielles. Reste ? revirer un autre 5,1 %, et le lib?ral Dhavernas va l'emporter, d'autant plus que le vote lib?ral sortira plus fort qu'aux ?lections partielles.
Donc, je pense que c'est trop t?t pour d?clarer Mulcair vainqueur.
08 09 30 J.F. Breton
132.204.214.212
Selon un sondage CROP récent, Thomas Mulcair recueille 37 % des intentions de votre contre 27 % au candidat libéral, le comédien Sébastien Dhavernas. Le candidat conservateur Lulzim Laloshi obtient la faveur de 16 % et la candidate bloquiste Marcela Valdivia 15 %. Le NPD a donc des bonnes chances de conserver ce comté montréalais.
08 09 30 splinterjete
70.48.236.178
recent polling for Le Quotidien shows that mulcair is ahead of all his challengers in outremont. at this stage of the campaign, and with ndp support on the rise across the province, this is a certain ndp hold and is safe to call.
08 09 29
128.100.80.2
Thomas Mulcair will hold this seat for the NDP. He has name recognition, the incumbency advantage and the NDP is soaring in the polls. If Jack Layton does well in the French debate, expect the NDP to pick up some other Quebec ridings too.
08 09 27 Robert C.
216.252.88.253
Désolé d'aller contre la tendance dominante des commentaires qui précèdent, mais je pense qu'il est inutile d'écouter les commentateurs nationaux qui ne connaissent rien à la réalité-terrain du comté. Outremont va revenir aux libéraux le 14 octobre. Leur candidat Dhavernas est partout et la majorité des gens qu'il rencontre l'apprécient beaucoup. Mulcair est déclaré gagnant seulement par les commentateurs des médias nationaux qui n'ont aucune idée de ce qui se passe sur le terrain.
Ce qui me dit que Dhavernas va gagner, c'est entre autres que plusieurs électeurs du comté qui ont toujours voté pour le Bloc ont décidé de voter libéral cette fois-ci, parce qu'ils ont calculé qu'un député libéral de plus renforcera le parti qui peut le mieux empêcher Harper d'approcher la majorité.
Je parlais aussi cette semaine à des intervenants et décideux locaux, qui me disaient que sous Mulcair, pas un seul dossier d'importance pour le comté n'a avancé au cours de la dernière année. Ce fait fait beaucoup jaser dans le comté.
Le fond rouge foncé du comté va aussi sortir en force le jours du vote, contrairement à ce qui est arrivé aux élections partielles.
Aux partielles,les résulats étaient :
NPD 47,5 %
PLC 29%
Bloc 10,9 %
PC 8,6 %
Cette année, le PC risque d'arriver cinquième dans Outremont. Le Bloc, c'est inévitable dans le contexte d'une élection générale, va récupérer une bonne partie de son électorat, ce qui fera baisser considérablement le pourcentage de Mulcauir. Le PLC n'a qu'à augmenter de 9 à 10 %, soit un peu plus que la moitié du pourcentage le séparant du NPD aux élections partielles, et ça sera suffisant pour faire perdre Mulcair et faire passer Dhavernas. Pour y arriver, le PLC n'a qu'à faire voter le gros fond rouge qui n'a pas voté la dernière fois, et dans le contexte d'une élection générale, il y aura inévitablement beaucoup plus de voteurs libéraux traditionnels qui se déplaceront pour aller voter.
Dernier point intéressant : beaucoup d'électeurs sont surpris et choqués de voir que les appels téléphoniques de Mulcair proviennent de... Toronto. La rumeur se répand partout dans le comté et il semble que beaucoup de gens n'apprécient pas beaucoup cette intervention extérieure au comté qui donne l'impression que Mulcair n'a pas assez de militants avec lui pour trouver des téléphonistes provenant du comté...
Donc, M. Mulcair est bien mieux de ne pas vendre la peau de l'ours avant de l'avoir tué et de ne rien prendre pour acquis. Surtout qu'après le scandale sur le blocage arbitraire par Mulcair d'une subvention d'Hydro-Québec à un groupe écologiste quand il était ministre de l'Environnement à Québec, et cela pour des raisons étroitement partisanes, beaucoup de gens progressistes et à tendance écolo ne voteront pas pour lui cette fois-ci.
08 09 27 binriso
156.34.218.25
Another thing is dont put too much stock into those Montreal polls, last time the Liberals were at like 19% in Montreal a few days before the election and behind the CPC, and they ended up winning 12 seats in the area with the CPC polling something like 15% in Montreal and winning nothing.
Id say Muclair wins by a fair margin, probably getting a few extra BQ and CPC votes just like the byelection.
NDP 44
LIB 26
CPC 13
BQ 13
Rest 4
08 09 26 J.F. Breton
24.201.215.27
Je mise sur une victoire du NPD ici. Il faut suivre les tendances. Or, le NPD monte partout au Québec (+10% depuis les dernières élections) et le PLC baisse (-7% depuis les dernières élections). Et sur l'île de Montréal, le NPD semble bien avoir pris la 2e place derrière le Bloc. Je mise donc sur une réélection de Mulcair.
08 03 01 Pierre from Québec
213.22.148.7
Why is this ridding still TCTC? Indeed, the NDP is in the second place in the island of Montreal according to the CPAC polls. I can't understand why this ridding it is TCTC while Westmount-Ville-Marie is called for the Liberals.
08 09 25 RP.
24.137.112.219
With Nanos having the NPD @ 27% (barely behind the Bloc and ahead of both the CPC/LPC)on the island of Montreal, and having a rare incumbency advantage, one of possibly a few Montreal ridings to go orange.
08 09 22 Porter
198.103.172.9
Today in the Hill Times they had their political analysts say it will be an interesting race, but Mr. Mulcair is expected to win this riding again.
http://www.thehilltimes.ca/html/index.php?display=story&full_path=2008/september/22/hottest_races/&c=2
08 09 20 Rebel
66.212.251.20
The NDP will take the riding again.
First, I was watching a bunch of NDP'ers putting up their signs and some young hassidim not only talked to the volunteers but also asked for signs. This is unprecedented.
Next: The NDP not only won the riding but won it by 20% and well over 4000 votes so let's say that the libs win every other vote in the general, they still loose. The question for the NDP is whther or not they can see their vote grow up to 500,000 votes. This will mean that the party can grow and make inroads in the next election if it starts to recruit members and decent candidates. The Bloc short of an amazing debating performance looks more and more like toast.
08 09 19 Frank Hanley
207.115.103.87
Sorry Mathieu. While Sebastien Dhavernas may be well known by the general public, he is not very well known in the Outremont riding. Plus, it isn't the general public of Quebec who will vote in Outremont but, rather, the people who live in the riding. Also, the Liberals got their signs up far too late in the game to matter. In fact, the Liberals got their signs up only a few days ago, and this after the NDP, the Tories, the Bloc, and the Greens, in that order. At first, I'd thought that the local Liberals had confused this election for a vote in the House of Commons and not bothered to show up. Then I realized that, no, they're just disorganized, understaffed, and underfunded.
Mulcair will re-take this riding but not without really fighting to retain it.
08 09 16 Mathieu
76.66.193.242
Si le candidat libéral n'a pas encore de pancartes, c'est tout simplement parce que ça fait seulement une semaine qu'il a été désigné. Il faut quand même prendre le temps de les imprimer, et de toute façon j'en ai vu ce soir dans mon quartier (Mile End). Mais il ratisse déjà beaucoup le comté, et il rencontre plein de gens. Son équipe est elle aussi déjà sur le pied de guerre.
Muclair est très vulnérable. Il ne dispose que de très peu des atouts qu'il avait à l'élection partielle. On entend aussi qu'il n'a pas été très présent dans le comté, et qu'il ne pense qu'à remplacer un jour Layton à la chefferie du NPD. Aussi, bien des gens d'Outremont se rendent compte du fait qu'un député NPD à Ottawa, qui est un parti condamné à l'opposition perpétuelle, est aussi inutile qu'un député du Bloc, tandis que faire élire un député libéral de plus, c'est contribuer directement à empêcher l'élection d'un gouvernement conservateur majoritaire.
Quant au Bloc, il va récupérer une bonne partie de sa clientèle électorale habituelle, car nous sommes dans une élection générale. Plusieurs électeurs du Bloc se rendent compte de l'absurdité de voter pour le NPD, qui est le parti le plus centralisateur, et aussi pour Mulcair, qui était à Québec l'ennemi le plus virulent du PQ.
Le parti conservateur a un candidat inconnu, et il fera comme la dernière fois, en 4e position. La priorité de la majorité des gens d'Outremont est de battre le gouvernement Harper, et beaucoup vont considérer que le parti libéral est le mieux placé pour y arriver, d'autant plus que le candidat Sébastien Dhavernas est très connu d'une bonne partie du public, et qu'il est partout dans les médias, donc sa visibilité nationale sera un atout dans le comté aussi.
Donc, dans une conjoncture où ce ne sera pas seulement 36% des électeurs qui voteront comme durant l'élection partielle de l'an passé (et où le vote protestataire sort toujours plus fort), on peut prévoir une victoire du libéral Sébastien Dhavernas, par environ 1500 à 2000 votes.
08 09 15 Outremont floating voter
24.202.238.232
Bonjour - personnellement, je suis de l'avis que ce comte ira encore une fois a l'NPD. Ce n'est pas n?cessairement le cas que Mulcair est tellement populaire, mais plut?t le BQ est discr?dit? dans le quartier, et le candidat lib?ral n'a pas de pr?sence sur le terrain (pas m?me des pancartes jusqu'? date!). C'est possible que le PC finira en deuxi?me position.
08 09 15 Mathieu
76.66.193.242
Les libéraux ont choisi un excellent candidat en Sébastien Dhavernas. Il est capable de reprendre le comté car il peut aller chercher des milieux peu habitués de voter libéral, comme la communauté des artistes dont il est issu et qui sont nombreux dans Outremont, et aussi des souverainistes progressistes ou fatigués qui considèrent que la priorité est de battre le gouvernement Harper.
Je pense que Mulcair ne l'emportera pas cette fois-ci, car à l'élection partielle, seulement 36% des électeurs ont voté, et des milliers de libéraux étaient restés chez eux mais ces libéraux vont sortir voter le 14 octobre. Mulcair a donc bénéficié de ce faible pourcentage de participation électorale,et aussi de l'effondrement des votes du Bloc, qui se sont quasi tous reportés sur lui dans le contexte d'une élection partielle. Dans le cadre d'une élection générale, le Bloc va récupérer une bonne partie de son électorat, et ces voix-là seront en moins dans la colonne de Mulcair. Aussi, Mulcair ne peut pas compter durant l'élection générale sur les centaines de militants du NPD venus de partout au Canada durant l'élection partielle pour l'aider à faire sortir son vote.
08 09 14 Brian A
24.222.81.66
I've read the comments here and fully agree with what most people have been saying. The fact is that I agree with our favourite predictor, Dr. Bear, most of all. This is not an NDP riding - not even close. In fact, two years ago if I had told anybody that, during the next federal election, this riding would be defended by an NDP'er, they'd have laughed in my face. Not even just laughed, but possibly even wrapped me up in a straitjacket and sent me to the loony bin. This riding is held by the NDP in the same way that the NDP's Peter Stoffer holds Sackville-Eastern Shore (my own riding, btw) and the NDP's Yvon Godin holds Acadie-Bathurst. Basically, Thomas Mulcair is holding Outremont on personality alone. If Joe Blow were the NDP candidate, this would be a Liberal-lock, no questions, end of story. The fact is, Mulcair is super popular and, quite possibly, the party's next choice for Leader. The NDP won a serious coup when they acquired him to run for them, and he will hold this riding as long as he chooses to. And then, when/if he ever stops running here, it'll flip back to the Liberal side.
08 09 14 Martin Lamontagne
74.57.221.160
Malheureusement l'élection de Thomas Mulclair pour le NPD n'aurra été que passer dans Outremont. Outremont étant une forteresse liberale, elle le sera toujours peu importe le candidat. Chose que je ne comprend pas, cette circoncription aurrait été un choix plus logique pour un Justin Trudeau que celui de Papineau... Fume-il du pot ?
08 09 12 Paul Tremblay
67.159.44.138
Well the Liberal candidate isn't exactly a star but he doesn't piss off people like Mr. Coulon did.
At some point the long history of the riding as a Liberal stronghold has to count for something. Same thing for the fact that Mr. Mulcair got elected mainly on account on Bloc supporters who switched to the NDP in a by-election just to humiliate Stephane Dion, and that such behaviour, assuming that it happens again, cannot be expected to be repeated to such a large scale.
I recognize Mr. Mulcair's popularity and I personally believe that the NDP has a chance to win 50 seats but I am far from certain that Outremont will be one of them. Still too close to call as far as I'm concerned.
08 09 11 Bugs Bunny
67.69.162.82
Big win in a by-election. Strong incumbant, solid campaign, and a no-name Liberal. Change this prediction or risk losing credibility.
08 09 10 binriso
156.34.218.245
The seat of the next Federal NDP leader(or at least I think so anyways and if Layton doesnt do as well this time it will be within a year or two that the NDP change leaders), Muclair will win Outremont with relative ease by at least 10% and probably a fair bit more.
08 09 09 Porter
198.103.172.9
The Liberals have just scrambled to find a weak candidate for this riding and now are putting all their hopes for a Quebec pick-up on Papineau.
‘Even senior Liberals observing the meeting didn't try to dispense the usual optimistic pre-campaign spin to a journalist. Asked about possible gains in Quebec, they mentioned only one Montreal riding: Papineau, where Justin Trudeau is running. They didn't mention Jeanne-Le Ber or Outremont, which was a Liberal stronghold until Thomas Mulcair captured it for the New Democratic Party. And the more pessimistic said they could even lose some of the 11 Quebec ridings they still held when Parliament was dissolved on Sunday (there was also a vacancy in the former Liberal riding of Westmount-Ville-Marie).’
Montreal Gazette: http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/columnists/story.html?id=e864fd72-6578-4c95-96c5-cfb10f7d429e
08 09 04 david m.
70.55.145.57
the fact is that the ndp will definitely win this riding.
only two ridings in all of quebec are likely to be held by the ndp before the close of this decade - outremont and laurier (once duceppe resigns, this one is going straight to some ndp star). let's set the record straight.
1) the bloc is done in this riding for the time being.
2) the ndp is rolling in plugged-in montreal for the time being.
3) the conservatives do not exist in pre-agglomeration montreal.
4) the liberals have lost brand appeal, and are basically treading water as the middle party between conservatives, leftists and separatists.
and most importantly of all:
5) the people that matter, in the numbers that matter, like mulcair and they like having him as their mp. mile end family types: they like him. francophone professional types: they like him. student types: they like him. low info immigrant types: they like him. in general, there is a coalition of people, BEYOND the party id and demographic factors, that make this riding mulcair's for as long as he wants it.
moreover, the party id and demographic factors are pretty favourable to the dippers: high income, low income, high education, low education, anglo, franco, the ndp is doing great on island, and nowhere more so that the plateau/mile end/outremont/cdn nexus.
further still, mulcair has probably the biggest gotv operation east of the danforth (mmm... or maybe the annex). he's a media star (he's often on french AND english teevee), he's quebec's ndp face, and he's been assiduously working the riding.
final analysis: this one will be competitive in the way that ridings like sault-saint-marie or victoria will be competitive. after a ?real race?, the ndp will win handily. the liberal's a fish, let's go bowling.
08 09 04 The Dude Abides
207.34.170.253
The party is over for the NDP in this riding. Electing a candidate in a by-election that doesn't significantly change the standings in parliament is one thing. Winning it in a general election is another.
08 09 03 PY
70.48.65.165
I honestly don't know how Mulcair will do going into a general election. Whether he really did steal the show in the by-election or his win came as a result of the Outremont electorate's loathing of Jocelyn Coulon as the Liberal candidate, I don't know...however, I don't believe it was because of infighting between Dion and Ignatieff's camps.
Now if Mulcair manages to successfully weave his magic in the Quebec ridings where he's recruited candidates who could make the NDP competitive, then he'll retain his seat. Then again, Dion may have learned his lesson by now and might be willing to throw out all the stops in the coming election (i.e. bringing in a new, stronger candidate against Mulcair and the resources to match) and make Outremont into a war of attrition. It might also be possible that the love affair with Mulcair here could end up being short-lived and that if enough voters feel they've made a mistake, they'll switch back to the Liberals instead.
Layton's job could well be on the line and Mulcair's certainly being touted as a possible successor. I worry he might let that get to his head and that he might not spend enough time 'tending to his garden,' especially if he decides to take a hands-on role in guiding the NDP candidates in Quebec that he's brought under his wing.
All in all, it's too close to call, whether Dion trots out a decent candidate who has the ability to take Mulcair down or if he somehow manages to do that to himself.
08 09 02 Dr Bear without Prof Ape
74.13.75.191
This has become a Mulclair riding. He is a star candidate in his own right, the BQ votes will continue to support him lest a liberal get re-elected, and the NDP are up in Quebec. This is his as long as he wants it or until the NDP does soemthing really dumb and their popularity slumps, which ever comes first.
08 04 07 Mad Max
69.157.72.63
Not only was the NDP victory surprising, so was the size of the lead in a by-election. This win was more then just a protest vote. I can't see the Liberals taking this one back in a General Election. This could turn out to be a safe NPD seat.
08 03 09 Ancastarian
72.38.158.55
Well I hardly would say Muclair is unbeatable. According to my my French Housemates who all happen to live in Outremont, Muclair will not be around for long. They repeatedly tell me that Muclair's victory was more a protest, and that the Liberals will be restored in the event of a General Election. Considering how much they loathe the Liberals, I see no reason not to believe them...
08 02 18 DL
99.233.94.146
According to Jean Lapierre, Martin Cauchon will NOT run for the Liberals in Outremont and in fact, the Liberals are having a hard time finding anyone to run in Outremont because the conventional wisdom is that Mulcair is unbeatable.
08 02 16 A.S.
99.233.96.153
*Martin Cauchon* vs Mulcair, oo-er, I'd hope the NDP prepared for that possibility. Then again, in terms of 2008, the Grits, and Montreal, Cauchon's a bit yesterday's-mannish; I'd actually give him less chance versus Mulcair than Gerard Kennedy vs Peggy Nash at this point. Replacing PMPM in LaSalle-Emard, though, is another matter entirely...
08 01 27
24.207.52.31
if cauchon runs here, which i think he will, the liberals will win.
if not the edge goes to mulcair although it will be a lot closer.
p.s. the conservative vote declined a bit here in the by election, i wonder if they voted NDP?
07 12 13 J.Mc.
24.32.250.167
I think Mulcair will likely hold this, but based upon his personal popularity, rather than his party. I.e., this will become a 'Mulcair' riding, rather than an 'NDP' riding. The by-election was, certainly, TCTC (I would have actually predicted Liberal on that one), but, with the incumbent advantage, he should be able to pull off a narrow victory.
07 10 27 binriso
156.34.232.141
This is by no means a beginning to an NDP Outremont dynasty, but lets look at it a little closer. Controversial Liberal candidate and no incumbent in the riding, strongest NDP riding in Quebec last time, NDP strong star candidate, Massive effort by the NDP to win the riding, way more than the Liberals, some strategic voting by the other parties, mainly the BQ and of course a much lower turnout than the provincial election (~24000 votes as opposed to about ~40000 votes in the 2006 election). Now the NDP win here was solid enough so that I predict they will keep in next election, but the margin will be closer and there is no way the NDP can put as much effort into winning as they did in the byelection. A non controversial Liberal star candidate might even make this TCTC...
07 10 05 Paul Tremblay
24.37.30.198
I would not bet the farm on this riding staying with the NDP in the general election. Don't get me wrong, Mulcair *is* popular, he will get a lot of votes, he does have a good chance to keep the riding, but a large part of his support in the by-election came from separatists who wanted to humiliate Stephane Dion and I wouldn't count on those voters to not return to the Bloc in a general election. There was also a problem with the Liberal candidate himself; I assume that Mr. Coulon won't be the Liberal candidate next time (if he is Mulcair will win). Personal popularity does not go that far in getting votes in an urban riding in a general election. At this point it is too early to say who will here next time.
07 09 30 John
66.48.175.88
The Liberals are still licking their wounds here. I can't see voter sentiment switching fast enough for the Liberals to make up lost ground if the government falls to a non-confidence vote in October. Beyond that, short of Muclair commiting political suicide, time is on the NDP side. If the federal election is in 2008, possible considering no one really has anything to gain by forcing an election, or even 2009, Muclair has a great opportunity to establish a track record as someone to vote for. I'll lean NDP on this one.
07 09 19 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
70.51.131.208
Hey Nick J Boragina. We too didn't see it coming either! We like Mulcair and are glad he won but we were surprised. It remains to be seen if this ends up indeed another historical curiosity like the last NDP win in Quebec, or if it the start of something new. Bottom line is Mulcair and the NDP have now got their foot in the door, however byelections are easier to win than general elections. Are all those Liberal supporters who didn't vote on Monday kicking themselves now? If it looks like the CPC is going to form a majority, are they going to stay home or cast a protest vote? Many questions to answer and only time will tell. As for now, good job Tom!
07 09 21 Tom
130.64.137.61
This should be safe for the NDP. Their victory in the by-election was far larger than anyone, even NDP rampers, were suggesting, and I see no reason for the situation to change in a general election.
07 09 20 Stevo
76.64.64.93
Well, Outremont is now the Quebec equivalent of New Brunswick's Acadie-Bathurst - a traditionally Liberal constituency falling to the NDP, and which will now likely stay NDP for as long as the current very popular incumbent remains in politics. Yes, star candidates have crashed and burned more often than they have soared, but I think in Thomas Mulcair the NDP have found a veritable longterm star. Unfortunately for the Dippers, their growth in Quebec is limited, and Outremont is all but certain to fall back into Liberal hands whenever Mulcair leaves federal politics.
07 09 18 binriso
156.34.212.190
I really cant say im overly surprised. The Liberals did pretty bad with this campaign and dropped a few % from 06, NDP's was better and many BQ, CPC and Green voters strategically voted NDP. Really surprised that the BQ vote dropped off so much though, the PQ still did get 25% here in the provincial election. I think we can say that the NDP will hold this with Mulcair as their candidate in the next election, although without him they will probably lose it. Only way that the Liberals will have a chance to win next time is if they get Martin Cauchon to come back and run for them. If only the Liberals had nominated Justin Trudeau...
In the end its kind of interesting. A NDP riding at the crossroads between the BQ dominated east and the Liberal dominated west of Montreal.
07 09 17 Nick J Boragina
74.13.125.185
I want to add a bit of reason to my knee-jerk prediction earlier. Going back to 1993, this is the best riding for the NDP in the province. Even in the 1988 election, when the NDP got 14% in the province, Outrmeont was within the top 10 of thier results, and many of the ridings where the NDP did better either today have a Bloc MP, or (like Westmount) have solid Liberal support. I took a look next at 1984. Most strong ridings are different (EG ridings strong in 88 were not strong in 84) but Ouremont was strong here as well. Even in 1980, the NDP finished second here (albeit with 4K votes VS the 23K of the Liberal winner) Going back this far Outremont starts to fall in prominence in the NDP result in Quebec, in 1980 the riding did not perform well. Go back to 1979, however, and Outremont jumps back to the top 4. The pattern I see is that as of late it has been strong for the NDP, while in the past it's been strong for the NDP when the Tories have done fairly well in Quebec. Seeing the Tories doing well this time, I'm going to re-enforce my projection that the NDP will win this riding at the general election (assuming Mulcair wins - if not, it's a grit lock) This riding will become the NDP’s Joilette. That was a riding the PC’s won in Quebec election after election, even if they had little or no other support in the rest of the province.

By-election Prediction
Incumbent
Courant
Prediction
Prévision
Elected
Elu
Outremont

07 09 14 Interested Observer
204.40.1.129
From today's column of the esteemed Chantal Hébert of the Toronto Star:
Earlier this month, with three crucial by-elections only weeks away, the bulk of Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion's brain trust, including the Quebec co-chair of his national election readiness committee Lucie Santoro, signed up for a trip to Israel sponsored by the Canada-Israel Committee.
A charitable explanation for the decision of some of Dion's top strategists to micromanage his first electoral test from the Middle East at a critical juncture of the campaign would be that all was satisfactorily taken care of on the home front.
But that explanation does not sustain the test of reality. Earlier this summer, Marc Lavigne – the chief Quebec organizer on the Dion leadership campaign – quietly handed in his resignation as deputy national director of the party.
According to Liberal sources, the resignation stated that he ‘was unable to implement organizational plans.’
That sentence may be a polite euphemism for a disaster-in-the-making in the three ridings that go to the polls on Monday.
By all indications, Dion's candidates in Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot and Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean are not even in contention for second place.
But it is the creaky wheels of the campaign in the Liberal fortress of Outremont that should really send alarms bells ringing throughout the party.
Three days to the vote, a Liberal cakewalk has turned into a cliffhanger with the NDP emerging as the party to beat in Outremont.
In the final sprint to the vote, Liberal campaign literature has yet to land on most of the riding's doorsteps.
With the NDP working hard to get its recently recruited Quebec star, former provincial environment minister Thomas Mulcair, into Parliament, local Liberals complain it has never been so difficult to recruit volunteers, even in the dark days of the sponsorship affair.
That should be a sobering wake-up call for the many Liberal strategists who continue to put the party's 2006 demise in Quebec down to a circumstantial backlash triggered by the scandal. It should also serve as shock treatment for the widespread delusion that the native-son syndrome will do the trick for the Dion-led party in Quebec.
There is no denying that the neophyte leader drags much unity baggage in his home province, but certainly no more than Jean Chrétien. He was on the wrong side of the Meech constitutional debate in Quebec when he became leader in 1990 but still had no trouble hanging on to staunchly federalist ridings such as Outremont.
Chrétien used to be as popular in Ontario as he was vilified in Quebec; Dion seems to inspire the same tepid feelings in both provinces.
At a time when sovereignist parties are undergoing a crisis of relevance, the Bloc Québécois is bracing to lose votes to its federalist foes on Monday, but not to the Liberals.
The NDP is poised to benefit from a slippage of the anti-war Bloc vote in Outremont while, in Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean, Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe's candidate is locked in two-way fight with his Conservative opponent.
If the Liberals do poorly on Monday, they will not necessarily be alone in their predicament. Duceppe, Stephen Harper and Jack Layton are all playing for high stakes. But if his party underperforms, Dion – as an untested leader – will take the biggest hit.
Of the main federal leaders, he alone has to convince an increasingly dubious party that there is not a better person for his job looming on the sidelines.
07 09 14 F. Paridis
207.112.50.131
The La Presse poll confirms that the Liberal campaign is in difficulty. At this late stage - have the Liberals bottomed out or have the NPD peaked too soon? If the Liberals are sending in campaign workers from Ottawa - they are in big trouble and are scrambling. The Layton team will win Monday.
07 09 14 no
74.56.84.104
I have received nothing from the Liberals, one from the Bloc, two from the Tories and one from Mulcair, a visit from an NDP MP and before that a visit from Layton. One call from the Bloc. One call from the NDP. Getting them in person sure beats a piece of paper!
07 09 14 GFW
70.55.62.11
Well, JN, I think you may get your wish as regards Mulcair being declared the front-runner. The poll in Friday the 14th's La Presse shows Mulcair in the lead in Outremont with 38% of voter intentions. We all know that the only poll which counts is the one on election day. But if these poll results hold for the 17th, then Mulcair will take it. Still, this poll showed the Liberals only five points back from the NDP, making this statistically TCTC. My money's on a Mulcair win, though I won't be surprised if the Libs retake this riding by a whisker.
07 09 14 Nick J Boragina
74.100.251.74
Holy Mulclair Batman!
The NDP is 6 points ahead in the by-election, according to media reports, and if they win it, they'll hold on to it at the general election.
crikey! I did not see this coming.
07 09 14 J.F. Breton
70.81.225.19
Sondage Unimarketing - La Presse du 14 septembre: NPD 38%, PLC 32%, BQ 14%, Verts 8%, PCC 7%. Ce sera très serré, puisque la machine libérale est mieux huilée que la machine néo-démocrate. Il sera sans doute plus facile de faire sortir le vote de base libéral, le vote néo-démocrate étant sans doute plus volatil. Ceci dit, la notoriété de Mulcair devrait lui donner un seond souffle. Je prévois (qui aurait cru ça possible) une victoire à l'arrachée du NPD.
07 09 14 DL
38.99.136.242
This is going NDP and it may not even be all that close. La Presse came out with a poll today of 1,000 voters in Outremont and it has Mulcair of the NDP at 38% and Coulon of the Liberals at 32% and the forgettable BQ candidate a very distant third at 14% with the Tory and the Green candidates vying for 4th place in single digits.
The BQ vote may fall even more as the front page screaming headlines in La Presse show that their candidate is dead in the water and that only the NDP can administer a coup de grace to Stephane Dion and his Grade Z local candidate.
07 09 14 Porter
198.103.172.9
Time to move the prediction on this one. The numbers don't appear to be as close as believed.
With only 3 days to go, La Presse reports that an extensive poll of the Outremont riding shows the NDP candidate Thomas Mulcair leading the Liberal Jocelyn Coulon, 38% to 32 %. The Bloc Québécois candidate Jean-Paul Gilson follows with a meager 14 % and the Conservative Gilles Duguay comes in fourth.
http://www.cyberpresse.ca/article/20070914/CPACTUALITES/70914020/1019/CPACTUALITES
07 09 14 Mark
65.92.7.29
I received pamphlets from the NDP, the Cons, the BQ... but got a call only from the BQ.
A poll released today shows the NDP's Mulcair in the lead... the deciding factor is whether the NDP can ‘get out the vote’ on E-Day.. the libs have the support from surrounding ridings to boost their E-day efforts
http://www.cjad.com/news/565/586250
07 09 13 King of Kensington
76.64.31.70
I predict Mulcair will win this for the NDP. Mulcair appeals to anglos and Quebecois alike and can take from both the Liberals and the Bloc. The Bloc is running a nobody and the NDP is the most appealing party to the type of people who vote Bloc in Montreal. And many left-leaning federalists who voted strategically for the Liberals will go to Mulcair as well. Not to mention the NDP is the only party that holds the same position on the Afghan mission as most of the people in Quebec - and to a large degree they have been successful in turning this byelection into a referendum on it.
People have mentioned the ‘Jewish vote’ which represents about 10% of the riding. Coulon may have lost the chassidic vote to the Conservatives. Not that it really matters much because the Tories aren't a factor here. Only about one-third of the Jewish population in the riding is chassidic and much of the rest is made up of urban secular Jews who won't cast their vote on the Israel issue and will swing toward Mulcair.
The riding is basically Montreal's equivalent to Trinity-Spadina in Toronto. This means the Conservatives are a non-factor and it has a lot of the urban intelligentsia and bohemian elements that will go NDP.
Prediction: NDP 36%, LIB 30%, BQ 20%, CPC 12%
07 09 12 GFW
70.55.54.168
Has anyone living in this riding received pamphlets in the mail from either the NDP or the Tories? I've received only those from the Bloc and the Liberals, yet the NDP and the Tories both maintain they did mail-outs. Any insights people?
07 09 11 JN
65.93.195.120
I don't know why the prediction of this riding has not changed yet to NDP. It seems to me that the majority of posters here have predicted it will swing NDP. I heard Mulcair on Radio Canada today debating the others and it sounds like he will carry it. The Bloc vote is atrophying, Coulon doesn't inspire and the cons have no visibility in the riding. Mulcair will win here on the 17th.
07 09 10 binriso
156.34.210.169
Well im not so sure anymore. NDP are making a big charge to win this riding and I havent heard too much from the Liberals. I was right about there being alot of candidates, there are 12. Now as far as the minor candidates, there does not seem to be any independent seperatists and there are 2 candidates that are part of the CAP(ones an independent) which takes votes right from the Liberals and NDP most likely. Most of the smaller parties candidates will take votes off of the Liberal and NDP which helps the CPC and BQ, but the CPC wont win, since they havent done very well in this riding, and the BQ most likely wont since they are in a bit of a decline, not to mention the PQ's loss in March. It will most likely be a very close race and probably within 1000 votes. Interestingly, Outremont is next to Laurier(Duceppe's riding) and Rosemont la Petite Patrie to the North which are both strong BQ areas. I think the BQ has an outside chance to win this but there would have to be a perfect split Liberal/NDP and the CPC would have to take quite a bit off of the Liberals for the BQ to win. Now as for the frontrunners, the NDP has a much stronger candidate, tons of MP's and others helping out but the Liberals are stronger organized on the ground and hold most of the bordering seats. Im not so certain of a Liberal victory anymore but of the 4 main parties the only one scenario that would overly surprise me would be a CPC win. TCTC between the Liberals and NDP for now though.
Ok well if Muclair wins in Outremont, the NDP would get instant credibility as a serious alternative party in Quebec. Certainly, their vote would increase as they would take left wingers from the BQ and Greens and federalist votes from the CPC and Liberals and Greens. Now im still pretty sure this'll be BQ next time but a good showing by the NDP this time could put them in contention to make a serious run a few years from now. The CPC though here still has the best chance to knock out the BQ.
07 09 04 F. Paridis
65.95.135.37
It is clear that there is change in the air.....when Liberals are in disarray in supposedly a safe riding. First time that I have seen signs that are not red/white for the federal Liberals. Coulon has few signs and even less excitement. NDP is stronger that I ever thought could be possible here. Not sure what is happening with BQ and Conservative campaigns...not much activity that I can see. Mulcair will do well. Dion is simply not selling well in Quebec and appears to be a major factor as to why the Liberal campaign hasn't taken off. Stay tuned. Byelections often yield surprising results.
07 09 05 HugoTheLiberator
64.230.86.180
The NDP will pick this up, as much because the Hasidim will vote Tory because the Liberal candidate is views is anti-Israel se because of Mulclair's star power.
07 08 31 Ontarioguy
216.167.247.239
I don't pretend to be an expert on Quebec politics, but I think that there is one point that makes a competative NDP candidate alluring as a choice in a byelection. That point is that this is the only byelection of the few that will take place on that day that the NDP is even on the radar. The NDP is renowned at being quite good at working byelections and will have any and all resources across the country working this particular one. The other parties will be spreading the troops a little more. I have no idea if the NDP has identified enough votes, but one thing is for sure, and that is that if they have, those votes will be pulled on e-day.
07 08 30 David
74.56.41.15
J'ai parlé avec plusieurs connaissances demeurant dans cette circonscription et ayant pour la plupart toujours voté libéral! Cette année plusieurs d'entre eux, presque la moitié, m'ont avoué vouloir voter pour le NPD parce qu'ils aiment Mulcair, qu'ils n'apprécient pas la controverse entourant les propos de Jocelyn Coulon et parce qu'ils sont contre la guerre en Afghanistan. Si je me fie aux résultats de la dernière élection je crois que les résultats n'ont jamais été aussi difficile à prédire dans Outremont qu'en ce moment... Si Mulcair frappe très fort en volant les votes aux libéraux, il a une chance. Si son effet est sensible mais pas suffisant, il laisse alors la chance au bloquiste de se faufiler... Les conservateurs ne sont définitivement pas de la partie dans ce comté!
07 08 27 initials AHA
74.56.206.40
I have been talking to locals a lot lately and am starting to feel that the NDP might actually do better than I thought here. I was quite sure that the Liberal machine would kick in fast to push a newcomer like Coulon but they are only just opening up their office, have very few posters and have only sent Coulon to a few safe liberal functions like the Greek Feast of the Virgin, with Justin in tow. The posters have no liberal red at all! But more and more liberals I talk to are still not convinced they made the right choice for candidate (remember they rejected Justin and a young female environment critic) or leader so are not sure they will even vote this time. The traditional Bloc and Tory voters want to vote Green or neoRhino as they think they don't have a chance against Mulcair or Coulon. There is an odd feeling in the air and it be the wind of change...
07 08 27 P.P.
70.81.221.100
This is a tough one to call. I go by an elimination process. The conservative have little chance of winning here. This is not conservative land. The ADQ did poorly here. And, in Quebec, the war in Afghanistan is VERY unpopular. This is not Bloc country either. They might get a sizable chunk of the vote but this riding isn't francophone enough to give more than 25 % of the vote to the Bloc.
Normally, Outremont should be a no-brainer. It is Liberal country, but they have 3 strikes against them : first, Dion is a very unpopular leader among the francophone. Second, the choice of Mr Coulon to represent them in this riding is likely to infuriate a sizable part of the Jewish electorate. I don't see the Jewish vote going to the Conservative or the Bloc.
That leaves us with the NDP. They have the strongest stance against the Afghan war. They also have a VERY strong candidate and both the Anglos and Jews that would want to desert the liberals this time may feel comfortable to vote for Thomas Mulcair.
07 08 17 GFW
70.55.62.86
I can't wait til they have local debates here. A debate between such candidates should be exciting, that is providing that the Libs don't pull out at the last moment or refuse like they've done in the past. Maybe that's why I'd like to watch a local debate in Outremont: Because we never have them here, so it would be something new. It goes like this: The Bloc will debate anyone as long as the Libs show up; And the Libs will only debate the Bloc. At least, that's how it's been in the past. I find it interesting that the Libs seem to be calling the shots here when they obtained only 35% of the vote in 2006, and that was *down* from the 40% they got in 2004. Here's to hoping for debates!
07 08 14
24.81.18.126
Beatle Bailey Buster: Seeing the polls right now, I don't think the Conservatives will take this one. Usually by-elections tend to favour opposition parties. However, I would not underestimate Conservative support in Quebec. We saw the CPC get 10 seats in 2006, and the conservative ADQ rise from irrelevance and obscurity to large official opposition in the Quebec National Assembly. Too close to call. But it will be a Liberal-BQ race, I think.
07 08 08 Beatle Bailey Buster
69.157.168.235
Beatle Bailey must be the National Director of the Conservative Party.
He predicts, in just about every single by-election race that the CPC will win. What a load of C-R-A-P.
Outremont will stay Liberal with Mulcair running a respectable 2nd. The Conservatives will come in 4th. Yes FOURTH Mr. Bailey. They are so far out of it that no one takes them seriously.
07 08 08 GFW
70.55.61.205
Seems to me that our Conservative friend is a wee bit deluded. The ADQ received roughly 2,000 votes in provincial Outremont during the 2007 Quebec election. Daniel Fournier won almost twice that in the 2006 Federal. If our friend thinks the ADQ ‘surge’ in Quebec is supposed to translate into a CPC win in federal Outremont, then he should go back to school and learn how to count. And I disagree with our Liberal friend who said that federalists will only back a party that's going to win - what a lame-o excuse that is. I'm a federalist and have not voted Liberal in the past nor am I tempted to do so now. Besides, what is the point of voting if someone is already ‘going to win’? You might as well vote in a king for life! The Libs are bombing in Quebec, and Dion has not been able to rally the troops well enough. Reality check folks: With Lapierre out of the picture, the Libs have only 12/75 seats in Quebec. This is a huge come-down from 1980 when they took 74/75. Why should federalists back a party that will one day wash out completely in Quebec? And as for the NDP, who can say? If Mulcair is still acting like the arrogant Pelquiste he once was, this may turn off a number of NDP voters in the Plateau section of the riding. Let's hope not, as his election may see for the first time in far too many decades that the citizens of this riding will have an MP who is going to represent them to Ottawa, and not the other way around. Likewise, there is potential here for the Greens, though it would be nice if they got their act together and learned how to wage a real campaign, rather than acting like a bunch of rebellious little turds with a collective attitude problem. All told, this is going to be one kerrrrazy campaign!
07 07 31 DL
38.99.136.242
Note to ?Beetle Bailey?. I wouldn't get too excited about the ADQ's showing in the Quebec election being a harbinger of a CPC surge in Outremont. There are two provincial ridings that largely make up the federal riding of Outremont - Mercier - where the ADQ came in a distant FIFTH behind the PQ, Quebec Solidaire, Liberals and the Green Party (in that order) and Outremont, where the ADQ came in FIFTH behind the Liberals, PQ, Greens and Quebec Solidaire (in that order). The ADQ has shown no strength at all in Montreal and least of all among the bohemian francophones and anglophone and allophone types who live in Outremont. The Tory might take a small number of ultra conservative Hassidic Jewish votes away from the Liberals and help the ND scoot up the middle and that is about it.
Apparently the whole riding is already plastered with Mulcair signs and the Liberals still have no HQ and no presence at all. I'm sure they will start to campaign at some point, but i have a feeling that the Liberals may freak out very soon because they have no clear message in the context of this byelection on why anyone should vote Liberal and not NDP. People like Layton way more than Dion and people the NDP position on withdrawal from Afghanistan is way more popular than the Liberal/Tory/BQ policy of extending Canada's combat role by two more years.
07 07 30 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
For all those making other predictions, I'll explain why the Liberals will hold this.
NDP: Thomas Mulclair is a strong candidate and this is the NDP's best hope at a Quebec breakthrough, but in Quebec, federalist parties are largely ignored if they have no shot at forming government. Quebecers ignored the Tories until it looked like they had a shot at winning the election and so until the NDP can pull ahead or at least even with the Liberals and Tories, they won't win any seats in Quebec.
Bloc Quebecois: They only came as close as they did due to adscam and with adscam behind us, if the Bloc Quebecois couldn't take this in the last two elections, they certainly won't take it now.
Tories: They have a strong candidate for sure, but with only 12% last time around and generally lower in the polls in Quebec, never mind the centre-left leanings of this riding, they will get clobbered once again.
07 07 29 binriso
156.34.225.173
Outremont is only 44.8% francophone, the rest are Anglo/Allophone which clearly benefits the NDP and Liberals. Dion may be unpopular with francophones, but not nearly as much on the island as the rest of Quebec. Remember, the ADQ got nowhere close anywhere on the island last election and only polled 15%(although they were pretty close in Laval in a couple ridings.) The CPC/PC haven?t got higher than 12% in this riding since 88 and i cannot see them winning. Despite the controversy around Coulon, he will still win.
07 07 29 Beetle Bailey
129.100.240.37
On election night this by-election will shock the country. First of all, Dion is disliked big-time with the francophone vote. Second, the liberals candidate has offended already the Jewish vote. Thirdly, the Quebec electorate is very unpredictable. Finally, the ADQ in Quebec in the final days of the campaign were supposedly losing support from the pollsters, pundits and the elite in the media, but on election night this was the exact opposite.
The end result, the CPC will benefit from all 4 reasons, and will likely win by 1-2% over the NDP, and the LIBERALS and the BLOCK will be fighting for third.
07 07 27 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
67.71.59.236
We're going to toss in our two cents worth on the upcoming Outremont byelection. There is much ado about M. Duguay and his work in foreign affairs and his diplomatic work. This is very impressive to the political science geeks who frequent this site, however it does not resonate at all with the average Jean-Guy Labatt who'd be voting in this byelection. Don't put too much credit into his star candidacy, we (the lowly scientist that make politics a hobby, that we are) had never heard of this guy before his nomination. It'll be the same for most voters. In fact the only one of the three star candidates that we have heard of prior to this byelection call was Mulclair (thanks to his provincial cabinet position). Coulon is known in French media, which makes him more familiar to the average francophone voter. BQ...forget it! If they could not take it in 2006, when the Liberals were at absolute bottom in the polls in Quebec and was running a despised (by many francophone voters) candidate, then they have no chance now. Bottom line, we think the byelection will be won by the Liberals. They've improved in the polls since 2006 (no where to go but up), they already have a lock on most of the non-francophone vote and they have a candidate that is at least somewhat familiar to the average francophone voter. We will admit that Mulclair may give them a serious run for their money and if he's lucky may take the byelection. We'd like to see that, but we seriously don't think that'd happen. If it did, come the general election, the riding would fall from the NDP's grasp and would become another historical curiosity much like the last (and only) NDP win, back in the day.
07 07 26 The Jackal
69.158.20.218
Sorry Dippers this will go Liberal. The NDP has been pretty much a fringe party here and that won't change any time soon. The CPC and the Bloc will both have a good run here but this will go Liberal
07 07 25 David M.
67.174.220.152
**This post refers to the 2007 byelection.**
This one is going to be close. As I see it, there are six variables that will determine the result:
1. The strength of the CPC campaign.
2. How much the Bloc's support drops.
3. The Mulcair effect.
4. The extent to which Coulon loses Jews.
5. The francophone vote.
6. Turnout: who shows up, the strength of the GOTV.
First, the CPC has a veritable star in Duguay, but they don't have the support of the organisation to bring it home for him. This said, in Outremont, the better the CPC does, the worse the LPC does. Two Rhodes scholars in succession for the CPC in Outremont is pretty remarkable, and Duguay should be a better candidate than Fournier (older, much more genial), moreover, the CPC is doing much better in Montreal in 2007 than they were in 2006, with the 'nation', fiscal imbalance, and now Saint-Jean military college issues nicely managed. In this context, and with the CPC pouring everything they've got into the riding, the smart money is on Duguay to do well. This augers badly for Coulon, and to a far lesser extent, the generic Bloc candidate.
2. The biggest threat for the Bloc candidate isn't Mulcair, it's apathy. All across the province, tradition Bloc voters are kicking tires, getting a sense of what else is out there, and in Outremont, doubly so. In effect, the LPC/Bloc polarisation has led to artificially high results for both parties, and with the NDP and the CPC newly revitalised, we're going to see lower results for both. This said, the Bloc is likely to see the biggest drop - the 2006 score was rooted in anti-LPC rather than separatist sentiment; the candidate was more well known; Lapierre was a particularly polarising figure; it was a general rather than a by-election; school was in session; and the Bloc, its politics and its leader were all riding far higher in popularity. It was, to some extent, a perfect alignment for the separatist party to maximize its voteshare, and it did precisely this. This time around, however, none of these factors are present: Mulcair and Duguay offer good alternatives to the LPC; the Bloc candidate is generic, its leader and politics far less popular; school's out, etc. The Bloc could well sink to third or fourth depending on who comes out to vote.
3. Mulcair is genuinely popular with a broad array of people, he's attracted a lot of very positive earned media, and he's got a lot of support coming his way from the NPD. Seriously, dippers (including MPs) are coming from all over the country to help out on this campaign, and the leader is sparing no expense - expect full phone banking, canvassing, etc. operations from the NDP, for once. It feels like make-or-break for him and for the dippers, and they're going to do everything they can to steal this one from the LPC. Expect NDP gains to come at the expense of the Bloc more than the LPC.
4. B'nai Brith is raking Coulon over the coals about his past writings on Israel and while most expect this to harm his chances here, the force of the impact remains unclear. My sense is that some people will stay home, some will vote CPC and some with vote LPC anyway, and that this shouldn't be a significant determinant in the election. This said, in a tight race, this could be important variable.
5. While older, long time Outremont voters will always vote Liberal, in general, francophones are less likely than ever to vote LPC. Where do they go? With the Bloc at its nadir in popularity, expect the CPC and Mulcair to benefit.
6. As with all by-elections, the key is turnout. All of the parties will be throwing everything they can at winning this one, so it comes down to organisational strength and the air war. On the first, the LPC has an undeniable advantage: they own this riding and they can draw upon a deep well of Montreal backup support. The Bloc also has significant organisation, and the Mulcair effect will alleviate some of the NDP issues. The Montreal CPCers, while likely to work hard for a win here, can't match these efforts. As for the air war, here's where it gets complicated. While the LPC has a commanding advantage in natural support, and the Bloc has a good hard core from which to draw, the last several months or media (paid and earned) may have loosened things up. On the one hand, Harper's Quebec publicity campaign and the Quebec media have really ground Dion into dust and Coulon's writings will continue to be an issue in the Jewish community (however unfair this is!). On the other hand, the Bloc has endured months of 'crisis' stories, the most interesting of which surrounded Duceppe's humiliating foray into Quebec provincial politics. In this environment, Mulcair and Layton, and to a lesser extent, Duguay, have a golden opportunity to break through.
These are the key variables, and my prediction is that Duguay's campaign will siphon away enough support for Mulcair to take it. My guess is that the distribution looks something like this:
NDP ~29%
LPC ~28%
BLOC ~21%
CPC ~21%
OTHER ~1
07 07 12 Hatman
192.197.82.153
An Environics poll in the paper today indicated that Jack Layton was the most popular leader on the Island of Montreal. If the NDP plays its cards right, they can win this with Thomas Mulcair, who is their star candidate. The NDP has a history of performing better in by-elections than they do in general elections, and they will be putting all of their resources into Outremont. It's hard to say whether or not this riding will actually go NDP, but I think the political climate is changing in Quebec- or atleast in Montreal for the NDP.
07 07 06 binriso
156.34.225.149
Dont count out the Bloc here yet though, even though they’re polling lower than 06. A federalist split between the 3 other parties could push them over the top with a squeaker of a win with a really low%(26,27% or so something a little less than 06). Greens will get a few % and there is no doubt that a few fringe candidates will run from minor parties, splitting the vote up even further. 11 candidates ran in Outremont in 06(!).
That said i still expect a Liberal win here with a comfortable ~3000 vote cushion or something like 10% higher than 2nd.
07 06 25 M.C.
24.122.220.230
Thomas Mulcair, tout comme M. Lauzon en 2006, n'a aucune chance dans Outremont, que ce soit dans une ?lection g?n?rale ou dans une ?lection compl?mentaire! Ce comt? a toujours ?t? un bastion lib?ral sauf entre 1988 et 1993, ?poque o? Outremont a ?lu un d?put? du Parti Progressiste-Conservateur, parti qui a maintenant disparu!!! En clair, Mulcair et Layton ont pr?f?r? pi?tiner leurs propres principes pour s'acopiner avec les conservateurs d'extr?me-droite dans tous les dossiers (Imputabilit? s?lective, Kyoto, mission en Afghanistan, et j'en passe!). Victoire lib?rale dans Outremont sans ?quivoque!!!
07 06 22 Suavebarman
74.56.85.176
Mulcair announced yesterday that he's going to run for the byelection here. The people of OUtremont are open to the NDP and will vote for them when they understand that one of their candidates are electable. Moreover, Mulcair and the NDP are on the right side of every debate, as far as this riding is concerned. Mulcair wins elections.
The conservatives don't have much of a chance with Mayor Tremblay's brother Marcel: 1) tremblay is not popular anymore; 2)Marcel hasn't any real campaign experience; 3)the conservatives haven't done well here for awhile; 4)The tories' ideology is at odds with the ethos of the riding.
The Bloc are running Jean-Paul Gilson: no dummy, but not very well-known and certainly not as strong a candidate as Jacques Léonard of the last campaign.
The Grits are just not as strong in Québec as they used to be and will have a really hard time convincing people that they are worth voting for. We'll see: Garneau or Unterberg will have to win it for them. Other wise I see this riding stolen by the dippers.
07 06 21 Porter
198.103.172.9
This will be the one to watch in the upcoming 2007 byelections with the possibility of a three or four way race. The NDP and CPC have both nominated high profile candidates (Thomas Mulcair -former provincial cabinet minister and Marcel Trembley - brother of the Montreal mayor).
The LPC and BQ have yet to nominate candidates, but both will be scrambling for strong ones or each will see their numbers go down as Outremont residents will have more dynamic choice than the two traditional viable options in the riding. The Liberals are looking for Dion to appoint a female and his wife Janine Krieber was at one point rumoured by insiders to be set up for the nod, but this has since been disavowed.
This one could potentially be an upset!
07 06 21 JN
24.37.78.2
Thomas Mulcair will work hard to win this riding, he will create the most buzz. the only hope that the liberals have of stealing the spotlight is to pull some cheap gimmick like trying to run Justin Trudeau. Marcel Tremblay will be a strong candidate and the bloc are running a very smart man, but Mulcair has the wind at his back. Who are the libs going to choose Unterberger? Garneau? If they choose Garneau, the gaffes of the 2006 camapign will resurface. I'm feeling confidant that Mulcair will carry this one.
07 06 18
70.55.114.8
En 2006, Léo-Paul Lauzon avait fait un score honorable de 20% et en terminant troisième.
Cette année, je crois que ce sera la bonne.
Sans compter que Dion est de plus en plus impopulaire, perd quasiment du terrain au Québec au profit du NPD qui est maintenant troisième chez les francophones.
Dion pourrait sans doute conserver quelques forteresses libérales, mais pas Outremont. Elle est loin d'être une forteresse sûre pour les libéraux (elle a déjà été conservatrice) et Jean Lapierre a eu chaud en 2006 contre le bloquiste Jacques Léonard.
De plus, le NPD pourrait bien faire une percée au Québec et Outremont sera le permier compté libéral à passer au NPD. Que ce soit le prof Lauzon qui s'y représente ou Thomas Mulcair, l'un ou l'autre deviendra député d'Outremont.
07 06 08 binriso
156.34.226.75
The stars could align for the NDP with Muclair in a by-election that i assume must be coming up soon, but i really dont see the Liberals losing here. They'll no doubt put up a star candidate to run and most likely hold on with an increased margin of victory.
07 05 18 DL
38.99.136.242
People make the mistake of thinking that because the name of this riding is ‘Outremont’ that means that the riding is made up of the Quebecois upper class. Quite the contrary. Only about a third of the riding is the City of Outremont and only a relatively small part of Outremont even has particularly big houses - most of it is very middle class.
What Outremont does include is a large chunk of the Plateau area that is in the provincial riding of Mercier (which was almost won by Quebec Solidaire) as well as large chunks of very working class and multicultural Snowdon as well as their area around the University of Montreal - in other words a riding that is demographically tailor made for an NDP breakthrough. Let's face it, the BQ has become a sad joke and when their vote drops, in a riding like Outremont most of it will go NDP. The Conservatives are likely to do a bit better here than in the last election and whatever they gain will come out of the Liberals' hide.
The NDP has never run a candidate here with the credibility of a Thomas Mulcair or other rumoured names like Julius Grey and in a byelection, the possibilities would be limitless.
All that being said, the Liberals would probably throw everything but the kitchen sink into holding this seat in a byelection since if they lost it under Dion - it would be a total humiliation for him. Should be interesting.
07 05 11 Incisive Logic
193.171.32.117
NDP in Outremont? The fact that someone would make an NDP prediction in Outremont just dilutes the credibility of every other NDP prediction on this website! Similar outrageous predictions were made on the 2004 and 2006 pages, but the NDP never came close. There is no need to get excited that the NDP won less than half as many votes as Lapierre last election. Spin the information and misinformation all you want, but it won't change the fact that the NDP has ZERO chance of winning here.
This riding is home to many high-income francophone families, and the NDP does not even register with most of them. The only reason that the Liberals did as poorly here as they did was because Jean Lapierre is despised amongst many Quebec Liberals, and socially progressive federalists voted NDP in protest of the candidate. The Liberals would win votes back from the NDP if they ran a red mailbox next time.
I doubt the NDP will even be able to hold their meager 7,000 votes, let alone pick up enough for a miraculous upset. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they placed fourth next time, since the Conservatives actually have a presence in Quebec now. I know the NDP managed to win one seat in Quebec in a wacky by-election during its glory years under Ed Broadbent, but they have NEVER won any other seat in Quebec. The Liberals will hold Outremont by an increased margin, and the NDP might come third again if they are lucky.
07 05 07 R.D.
12.4.238.25
A recent CROP poll shows the BQ has fallen to record low support in Quebec, 28%, with the Conservatives trailing closely at 26%, the Liberals at 22% and the NDP at 15%. While still in fourth, the NDP has shown the most gain of any of the four federalist parties, doubling its vote from the 2006 election. If these numbers hold out, the NDP could pick up a significant swing from the Bloc to surpass weak Liberal margins in Outremont and Hull-Aylmer, which gave the NDP its #1 and #3 best results 2006. The NDP's #2 result was Laurier--Sainte-Marie, which appears solidly BQ, although of course things could change there too if Gilles Duceppe leaves to seek the provincial PQ leadership.
Given the lack of a Liberal incumbent, Outremont is probably the NDP's best hope with a star candidate like Thomas Mulcair. As prospects for a spring election fade, this seat appears more likely to be filled in a byelection rather than a general election, which could help the NDP by giving it a chance to concentrate its resources, but would also clearly give the other parties an opportunity to focus on the riding as well.
07 04 20 DL
38.99.136.242
Highly respected former Quebec Liberal Environment Minister Thomas Mulcair is running for the NDP and if (as seems likely) there is a byelection in Outremont in the near future, he will run there. The BQ is in free-fall and a lot of their support would probably shift to the NDP in a byelection situation. The Liberals have nominated a nobody to succeed Lapierre and Dion is making no impact at all in Quebec. I expect the Conservatives to also gain ground from the Liberals - though nowhere near enough to actually win.
07 04 05 Brian Appel
64.230.127.250
I was initially going to leave this riding alone, but I think that it's safe to say that, regardless of who the Bloc and Conservatives pick, this riding is going to stay Liberal. At one time, not too long ago, this riding was the second safest Liberal riding in Quebec. I don't predict a landslide win, but this riding is staying Liberal for a while yet.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
74.99.130.109
Jean Lapierre didn't do particularly well last time around, but 2006 was essentially the absolute worse the Liberals could do in Quebec, so I think it is pretty safe to say they will hold the ridings they won last time around. The question is how many can they re-gain. They should re-gain some, but the exact number is still wide open.



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