Prediction Changed
3:34 PM 29/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Niagara West-Glanbrook
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Allison, Dean
Christian Heritage
Bylsma, Dave
Carter, Heather
Frere, Sid
New Democratic
Heatley, Dave

Dean Allison

2006 Result:
Dean Allison **
Heather Carter
Dave Heatley
Tom Ferguson
David W. Bylsma

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 01 Paxe
I don't think the entries are that fun. I think they're dumb and condescending. First, even if you add the Conservative and CHP vote that's still just 49%, meaning 51% of the people didn't vote for a right-wing/socially conservative party. Second, there are many reasons why people wind up voting the way they do, and its not just because they're a ‘redneck’ clichee.
This area is largely rural, although it does contain Welland suburb Fonthill, a middle-class area that usually seems to lean Liberal, and some small towns like Grimsby that do have a small working-class.
When dealing with a rurual area its not always easy to characterise it, because 'rural' can mean: small village-dwellers, rural workers, urban workers who just chose to reside in the coutryside, small independant farmers who may be struggling or poor, larger scale farmers who may be affluent, or very affluent people who chose to build a McMansion estate a mile back off some country road. This riding has some of all of the above.
Economically it has people all over the spectrum. And yes, socially, the religious right has a base in this riding, I'm not denying that, but alot of the posts here have been silly exaggerations.
08 09 29 Nick
While Dean Allison will be easily re-elected in one of the safest Conservative ridings this side of Ontario, I happened to be in Beamsville today and saw something rather interesting - a sign war, not between the Conservatives and the Liberals, not even between the Conservatives and the NDP. The entire area was full of Christian Heritage Party signs on people's lawns and in front of businesses. There were even full CHP billboards throughout the area. I saw not a single Liberal or NDP sign, just lots of Conservative and CHP signs, along with a few Green Party signs. I wouldn't be surprised if Niagara West-Glanbrook ends up being the CHP's strongest riding in the entire country on election day.
08 03 17 Peg Leg Pete
This riding isn't competitive but it has some of the most fun posts on it and I wanted to join in the fun. When you talk about bible belts and family value ridings, you're talking about Niagara West - Glanbrook where you can't swing a dead cat without hitting an inbred bible belt church.
The place is full of them and more get built every year. The Conservatives had one of their bigger margins of victory in this riding last time and with the Harper government's crusade to raise the age of consent in this country, the born agains will be sure to vote early and vote often for Alison. I predict he wins by 13,000 this time.
08 02 23 I'm Always Right
Doc Bear and Prof Ape forgot to account for the 20,000 rednecks in Beamsville, the 10,000 bible belters in West Lincoln and the 15,000 inbreads in Fonthill. They all represent the extreme right wing vote that's going to give gool old Dean a huge victory. Stevo just doesn't understand rural Ontario.
08 02 09 Stevo
A.S.: my apologies, I guess my recollection of your comments in previous elections to the effect of CPC supporters being RepubliKKKans (insinuating, of course, that Conservative voters are all hard-right white supremacists) coloured my judgment of your comments here.
IAR: in all these submissions, did you not realize that your spelling of the word ‘inbred’ has been wrong? Unless you're arguing that Niagara-WG voters live within slices of Dempsters 12-Grain.
08 02 07 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Smithville population = 2,961
Grimsby population = 24,240
Stoney Creek population = 57,327
Just with those numbers listed we wouldn't say Smithville offers a complete picture of the riding (or even a close one). Looks to us like a rather small (though perhaps vocal) part at that.
08 02 05 I'm Always Right
AS knows nothing about Niagara West Glanbrook. The inbread, bible belters there are proud of being labelled as such. Go to Smithville and you'll see I'm right. These people all vote and will pour into polling stations on E Day and give old Dean the biggest win he's ever had.
08 01 28 A.S.
Stevo: notice that I *did* challenge IAR's assertion (by bringing up Stoney Creek, Grimsby, Fonthill etc). And notice, too, that I used quotation marks (sometimes unfortunately coming through as question marks) in 'echoing' his slurs--it makes a disarming difference...
08 01 27 Stevo
A few observations:
1) Notice how A.S. doesn't even challenge IAR's assertion that most people in this riding who vote Conservative are incestuous snake-handling bible-preachers. That should tell you something about A.S.'s own biases.
2) I have a feeling most of those ‘inbread’ bible-thumpers have better spelling and syntax skills than IAR.
In any case Niagara-West Glanbrook is hardcore Conservative territory. Allison wins here again in a walk, no contest.
08 01 26 A.S.
Er, you didn't get my point, I'm Always Right: while they might form a sizeable and winning constituency, ‘inbreed/inbread/inbred bible belt folk’ aren't anything like NWG's vast majority. And yes, this site is about Election Predictioneering, but if you want your predictions to have any authority and grounding upon reality, there's also a finesse involved. There's no finesse in ignoring my, or Bear & Ape's, or whomever's pertinent points on behalf of convenient heavy-handed landslide predictions based upon heavy-handed demographic readings couched in heavy-handed mantras about ‘inbre(a)(e)d bible belt’, ‘rednecks’, ‘hicks’, ‘knuckle dragging right wingers’ et al. In which case, you might as well be painting Toronto/Vancouver Centre with a uniform ‘limp-wristed pansy’ brush as well. You really need sensitivity training--and not just in terms of psephological technique...
08 01 12 I'm Always Right
Seems to be a pattern developing here between A.S. and myself. This site is called ‘Election Prediction’. I predict the combination of a pathetic Liberal candidate in Heather Carter and a vast majority of inbreed, bible belters will give old Dean one of the biggest wins in the country. He won by 10,000 votes last time and as a sitting MP will do even better this time. Don't think I'm going too far out on a limb here. Hope the inbreed bible belt folk come through and make me right, again.
08 12 30 A.S.
Er, ‘I'm Always Right’: I know the riding well enough to realize it isn't 100% ‘inbread, bible belter’--not with urban/suburban Stoney Creek, Grimsby, Fonthill etc. In fact, take a gander at those 2006 figures: CPC + CHP doesn't even add up to 50%! Not a lot of radical bible-belt vote to court there. Now as you see with my initial prediction below, I'm *not* disputing Dean Allison will win. Perhaps with 50% plus, maybe 60% plus if he and Harper are really on a roll (NB: Tim Hudak hit 51% provincially). But re this ‘one of the biggest wins in Canada’ business, look: there's at least 36 seats in Parliament where the 2006 margin of victory was *over* 19000 votes--including 3/4 of the seats in Alberta! Just because the seat contains West Lincoln doesn't make it Wetaskiwin, y'know...
07 12 23 I'm Always Right
Sadly A.S. doesn't know this riding very well. Dean Allision has spent the last couple years courting the inbread, bible belter vote that went to the CHP last time. This is going to pay off for Dean as the CHP vote moves heavily to Dean and he comes up with one of the biggest wins in Canada.
07 12 10 A.S.
Do your national electoral homework. For Dean Allison to have one of ‘the top 5 biggest margins of victory in Canada next time’ would either involve a 90s Don Boudria-esque 70%+ against depositless opponents, or else a Conservative free-fall in Alberta. He may be solidly in there, but a prediction like that is totally lunatic fringe, except maybe in a few heart-of-the-bible-belt West Lincoln polls where CHP's got a second-place chance...
07 12 08 I'm Always Right
Dean Alison crushed Heather Carter last time and won by 10,000 votes. This time Dean will win by more than that. I'm going out on a line and saying Dean will have the top 5 biggest margins of victory in Canada next time.
As mentioned before, the inbread bible belters love Dean and will empty out the churches to vote for him Alison has also got the always angry and redneck farmers in his riding all set to come out and vote Conservative.
On the Liberal side, Carter has to put it simply, nothing in the way of support, money or an organization. Why she's lining up for another humiliating loss is beyond me but there she goes. I'll say Dean wins by 19,000 votes this time.
07 07 25 A.S.
Easily a core Tory seat in SW Ontario; the Lincoln/W Lincoln Bible Belt is as much a CPC cornerstone (even when there's a parallel CHP candidate) as Vanier is for the Liberals in Ottawa-Vanier. Yet the core's more diluted than Tories might wish--obviously with '04's close call, less obviously with '06's failure to crest 50%. Might it be that the Bible Belt nucleus is still a net liability elsewhere in the riding (especially Fonthill and Stoney Creek)? And unlike his more pragmatic provincial counterpart Tim Hudak, Dean Allison himself might be a little too Bible-Belty for comfort (you know, part of Stockwell Day's team in '00). Still, with a margin like his, Allison won't likely lose--but it isn't like he's guaranteed to win any bigger than in '06, anyway.
07 04 19 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
In a race that was somewhat close (like in neigbouring Niagra Falls), we'd accept the argument that an invisible MP that doesn't really live in the riding may turn voters off and could put it in jeopardy, but c'mon! This wasn't even remotely close in '06! People in urban ridings (and this one, though a good chunk is rural, is urban enough) will vote for the party over the candidate. The CPC is not perceived as the frightening bible-thumping Yosemite Sams anymore, but rather the party that delivered on many of their promises. The liberals on the other hand are being perceived as weak, directionless and somewhat corrupt alternatives. Voters are not going to swarm back to the liberals over least not 10 000 voters!
07 04 19 Happy Gilmour
Hey Elmo, get your facts straight. I would hate to think that you're actively misleading people, I'm sure it was a simple oversight.
Dean Allison does live in Beamsville and is actively involved in his community. This riding goes CPC in a wash.
07 04 13 Elmo Harris
Carter has done more work in the riding over the past year than Allison has done in three years. Naturally this is because she actually lives in the riding (Allison keeps a nominal house in Beamsville but actually lives in Oakville). In the last election, Carter was blindsided by the sponsorship scandal and was relatively unknown. She has been able to attract many big name supporters, many former Progressive Conservatives, and has tripled her volunteer base compared to the last election. Allison is invisible except for photo-ops. Constituents have been complaining that they do not get their phone calls returned. The party will no longer allow him to speak without a script.
07 04 05 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Having won with over 10,000 votes, the CPC will easily hold on to this one. Especially now they they are looking at majority territory. Easy CPC hold.
07 03 29 M. Lunn
This will not go Liberal. For all Dean Allison's flaws, this area has a significant religious community in both Lincoln and West Lincoln who will go massively conservative, while the suburban portions the Conservatives will get enough votes to at least be even if not ahead of the Liberals. Of the Niagara ridings, this is the most conservative.
07 03 28 Lisa MacKenzie
Heather Carter is once again the Liberal candidate. She has been very active in the riding over the last year since the last election. Plus Dion was in attendance at her nomination meeting, which was the 1st Liberal nomination meeting in Canada. The Liberals are looking to pick this one up and they might just pull it off.

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