Prediction Changed
6:34 PM 24/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Scarborough Southwest
Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Crompton, Greg
Dixon, Stefan
New Democratic
Hussain, Alamgir
Kabir, M. H. Fatique Chowdhury
Simson, Michelle

Tom Wappel

2006 Result:
Tom Wappel **
Vincent Veerasuntharam
Dan Harris
Valery Philip
Trevor Sutton
Elizabeth Rowley

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 06 Andrew S
Perhaps those who think that Wappal's retirement is to the detriment of the Liberals are unfamiliar with his record.
Not that 19K of the 20K who voted for him knew his name, but those who did knew it was mud. Easy, easy Liberal win.
08 09 10 Marta
As a former Liberal voter. i have been parking my vote elsewhere while the current far-right liberal incumbent has run the riding. now that he is leaving, i, and likely many others will sap a few percentage points from the NDP/Green campaigns.
I cannot see this race being close. Traditionally, the NDP and Conservative candidates have split the vote beautifully.
08 03 17 R.O.
Out of the 5 Scarborough ridings this might be the only one that turns into a race. As longtime liberal mp Tom Wappel will not be running for re-election. But it is still Toronto, and Dion choose to appoint the liberal candidate for this riding. Michelle Simpson will be the next liberal candidate. Not really sure how these appointments have been going over with local riding associations and voters who live in these ridings. Think many would prefer there was open nomination meeting instead of candidates just being appointed. The conservatives have a new candidate here as well Greg Crompton has been nominated to run. But it?s still Scarborough so liberals have the advantage here.
08 12 30 J.Mc.
I agree that the Liberals will hold onto this. This is not Huron-Bruce or Mirimachi, which would likely go Tory (or at least be TCTC) if not for personally popular Liberal incumbents. With Wappel gone, I predict that the Liberals will increase their margin, as socially liberal-minded voters will return from the NDP/Green Party back to the Liberals next time around.
07 10 15 Arnab Tagore
During the last election I actually voted the conservatives to keep Tom Wappel out. The reason was because the conservative candidate from this riding was much more ‘liberal’ than the Liberal candidate, Tom Wappel. Due to the absence of Tom Wappel, I will be able to go back to voting Liberal or NDP depending on which platform I like. Liberals actually lost lots of votes to NDP and Conservatives during the last election because of Tom Wappel. This would not be an issue anymore and this riding will for sure go for the Liberals.
07 04 10 A.S.
SSW is no more or less specifically socon than any such riding in the GTA; Wappel was by and large elected in spite of his personality and views, rather than because of them. And if the Conservatives are potentially competitive here, they might as well be competitive in at least half the ridings across the 416, neighbouring Scarborough ones not excepted. And in turn, such a swing'd itself likely come in spite of, rather than because of, the socon angle. Remember all the claims that certain immigrant-heavy Brampton/Mississauga ridings would swing Tory in '06 because of where the incumbents stood on same-sex marriage? Didn't happen. And re ‘minority candidate’: the Tories tried it in SSW in '06, and it didn't work. Just because voters are Catholic/immigrant/minority/socon doesn't mean they're malleable dum-dums, y'know--even if they voted again and again for Tom Wappel. (Okay, maybe they *are* malleable dum-dums;-)) Besides, in this particular seat, with the undertones of Transcona-esque suburban poverty and decline and just plain working-classness plus a certain yuppie-or-not spillover effect from East Toronto, there's just as much pull from the *opposite* direction: it's by far the best NDP seat in Scarborough, and the Dippers' Dan Harris did nearly as well as the CPC candidate for two elections running. So, if the Tories win here, it's just as likely to be a 3-way split accident. More likely, CPC + NDP will cancel each other out again.
07 04 10 M. Lunn
This will go Liberal in a landslide. Scarborough is one of the safest areas for the Liberals in Canada. As for the immigrant vote, the immigrant community is quite diverse here and far from monolithic. Groups like the Greeks and Jamaicans are hardly known for having conservative views while even those from countries that are quite conservative doesn't automatically mean all immigrants from there hold conservative views. For all this talk of the Conservatives gaining amongst immigrants, I think it is grossly overblown. They said this in 2004 and 2006 and it never materialized so any gains amongst immigrants won't be nearly enough to re-take this riding. Never mind this was by far the best NDP showing in Scarborough and I suspect many NDP voters voted NDP because they found Tom Wappel too conservative. With the candidate likely to be a real Liberal, rather than a conservative running under the Liberal banner, they can probably win back many of the NDP votes which would more than offset any losses to the CPC.
07 04 09 Brian Appel
I wouldn't be so quick to declare a Liberal win here. SSW is a very socially-conservative riding. Lots of Catholics and socon-oriented immigrants. Also, the Conservatives will likely select a minority candidate, whereas the Liberals seem driven to appoint a woman to run here. I'd still probably say the Liberals will pick it up, but if Dion is seen as going over the heads of the large immigrant population here to appoint someone with few ties to the community, then the Conservatives could capitalize and pick it up.
07 03 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
Wappel's not running again? There will be rejoicing in many circles, especially the many Liberal voters who held their noses and voted for Wappel because they supported the party (like almost everywhere else in Scarborough). Very easy Liberal win.
07 03 23 G. Kennedy (not that one)
This was never a Tom Wappel riding. But it is a LIBERAL riding through and through and in Wappel's absence, it'll be an easy victory for whichever busy and dedicated soul grabs the nomination.

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