Prediction Changed
10:36 AM 13/10/2008

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Aglukkaq, Leona
Ejesiak, Kirt Kootoo
New Democratic
Irngaut, Paul
Ittinuar, Peter

Nancy Karetak-Lindell

2006 Result:
Nancy Karetak-Lindell **
David Aglukark Sr.
Bill Riddell
D. Ed deVries
Feliks Kappi

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

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08 10 11
Harper's government has really tended to and invested in this territory. Add Leona Aglukkaq's star power, and a Conservative win is likely. Plus, Leona will probably be in Cabinet.
08 10 09 Joshua Zuckerman
It's hard to know how to predict this riding. There are lots of Conservative predictions here, but then on the other hand you have a site like Democratic Space which gives the Liberals the edge by a number of points right now.
We may need to rely on those posters actually from the riding to give us clues as to how it is going to go.
08 10 08 R.O.
This is one of the more interesting and unique races this election as the riding of Nunavut is so large and very different from the rest of Canada. All 3 major parties have a shot here but I do not see much potential for the greens here. Leona Aglukkaq is a very strong candidate for the conservatives in this riding. The ndp must feel they have a chance as well or why would Layton have traveled all the way up here. the liberals are trying to hold the riding they have held for a number of years and dion visited it. But I somehow wonder if the carbon tax issue might hurt them here as this area is dependent on diesel fuel.
08 10 05 rebel
If Dion is going to fly up to Nunavut in the final week of a federal election, he must be very concerned that he is losing the riding...
08 10 01 MA
The Territories have historically found it very useful to be on the side of whoever wins. I'm unconvinced the Green candidate will even manage a good fourth. If the Conservatives or Liberals don't take it, it will be a very strange result indeed--and with the Conservatives poised to win the election (regardless of majority/minority), advantage to them.
08 10 01 Jack Russell
Not living in this riding nor having never been up North, I can't claim to have any expertise in this riding. However, my thought would be that the Conservatives must think they have a real shot at winning if Harper made a special visit there. One has to wonder if internal polling is telling them something here? To have the Prime Minister make all the effort for one seat makes me think the riding is very much in play.
08 10 01 Can-eh-dian Redhead
Nunavut?s Territorial government does not have political parties, the voters elect individuals based on their reputation and connection with the community. Similarly with federal elections, the candidates are far more important than the parties they represent. That having been said, Irngaut has been an MP in this riding before and has a real shot at winning Nunavut. And his nomination is not new: he was nominated on September 23, 2007. See
08 09 30 Nick J Boragina
To those claiming the Greens will win on the strength of their candidates, I remind them, that it is true he has sat in the house and won many elections, for parties like the Liberals. However in his final run he ran as an independent, and got trounced, taking around 600 votes. Even if you add that 600 to double what the greens got last time, that's no win.
08 09 30 Michael
Wow... at the last minute the Greens nominate a well known former MP. Admittedly, he doesn't live in the riding at the moment, and isn't campaigning in person. However, we're dealing with a riding with a very small number of voters, with a non-partisan legislature, with no incumbent. So, I'd say that this is really about the name recognition of the candidate, rather than the party. I'd say that all four candidates likely have an equal shot at this. To the extent that party affiliation matters, a strong Green candidate will help the Conservatives. But, the Greens probably have almost as good a shot at it themselves.
08 09 29 binriso
I have to say, this is one riding(one of the only ones) where the Greens likely have the best candidate. Could even be a 4 way race here, but in that case the CPC would take it, have to say its pretty wide open.
08 09 29 MD+
I think this will be the first riding electing a Green Party candidate. Not because he is green, but because he is well-known. he might swing to the Liberal Caucus though eventually...Markus
08 09 27 FDP
I think this could swing Green. A high profile candidate in a riding severely affected by global warming, with a relatively small electorate.
08 09 26 expat
There are four strong Native candidates here, and the Liberal vote in past elections was probably inflated by the personal popularity and high profile of their MP Nancy Karetak-Lindell, who is stepping down. In a far flung riding with a population spread widely in dozens of distant small towns and villages, campaigning in Nunavit is challenging for all parties
The Conservatives probably have the edge with Leona Aglukkaq, who has a higher public profile from her time as Health minister in Nunavit's (non-partisan) government. She may benefit or suffer from Harper's attention to northern issues (lots of high profile stuff, lots of local grumbling about promises unfulfilled). Representing the party that is going to continue as government (majority or minority), she probably has some built-in advantages going into the voting - voters would know/hope that she would play a role in government (as a Native woman MP, she would almost certainly be someone the Conservative caucus would like to highlight.)
The Liberals' hopes for keeping this seat are being carried by an impressive candidate, Kirt Kootoo Ejesiak - but while he is highly credentialed and has a strong resume, he doesn't start with the name recognition of the other candidates. It isn't clear how Dion is playing in the north - the ‘Green Shift’ is a mixed bag in the region, with a high awareness of climate change as an imminent issue, but also an economy that includes a great deal of energy/mineral extraction and therefore has problems with a carbon tax. If the Liberals looked like they had a shot at government he would have a better chance, but with a sense that they are tanking, voters may not be inclined to send someone to sit in opposition.
The NDP's Paul Irngaut is a strong candidate for them - he was a relatively well known Inuit journalist for the CBC, and has been working on lands claims issues since leaving the CBC. Layton has spent a lot of time in the north, but it isn't clear that will be enough to break through here. The Liberals would probably need to be in free-fall for the NDP to take enough votes here to win. His chances may also be somewhat adversely affected by the presence of a former NDP MP as the Green candidate, perhaps siphoning off some votes.
Finally, the Greens are running former (NDP & Liberal) MP Peter Ittinuar. Ittinuar was the first Inuk MP - elected in 1979 and re-elected in 1980. He crossed the aisle in his last term and joined the Liberals, but did not win renomination and instead ran (and lost) as an independent in 1984. (He tried to run for the NDP again in 1993, but Audrey McLaughlin refused to sign his nomination papers.) That is all quite a long time ago and may not carry much residual name recognition in a riding with a young population. He now lives in Ontario. Beyond his party-jumping record, he also carries a lot of negative personal baggage - including criminal convictions for domestic violence and cocaine possession. While he is highly unlikely to win, he will certainly draw more votes than a typical Green candidate here, and that may mean he has a real impact on the outcome.
The edge has got to go to Aglukkaq and the Conservatives, but a Liberal or NDP win here is certainly not out of the realm of possibility.
08 09 25 gl
This ought to be closer than in 2006, but the Liberals will win. I think the Marijuana vote, 7% in 2006, won't favour the Tories but rather the Grits and Dippers. The Greens should also improve their standing here.
08 09 25 Mattie from Nunavut
The Conservatives star candidate has a battle to win...
She was the Health and Social Services Minister... and the doctor and nurse shortage in Nunavut might hurt her. The Health Ministry is not the most functioning ministry and has consistency run over budget... which might her hurt as well. She's not from Iqaluit the largest town in Nunavut so residents in Iqaluit might not vote for her. In addition, 80% of the white population in Iqaluit is from Newfoundland... so Danny Williams ABC campaign might also influence white voters. The fact that Steve Harper promised a deep sea port in 2006... and it not being built is also an issue in the Iqaluit. Leona being supported by the current Premier might also have a negative impact on her.
But on the on hand... The Pot Party is not runing this time... so 700 votes are up for grap... they are going to vote.
The new liberal Kurt is a Harvard Grad... and this riding has been liberal for like 40 years... so given the history if probably will stay liberal... he can capitalize on the negative aspect of the Harper government, and the lack of caring... and can exploit the visit of Mr. Harper... which was a surprise visit... and then... word got out that his meeting in Iqaluit was ‘invitation only’ which does not sit well with Inuit that believe that goverment should be exclusive of ideas so you build consensus.
Mr. Harper big announcement at his 'invitation only' event was to create a Northern Economic Office... which NFAIT already does... so techinically his announcement was nothing new.. but just a reallocation of resources from one fed govt dept to another to do the same work... and it's being reported in the local papers as such.
So the Conservatives might win... but a Leona has a lot of doors to knock to convince voters that we need Harper... in the 'use it or lose it' land.
08 09 22 Stray
In any other riding, this would be a joke, but one factor has to be considered that I think people are overlooking: in the 2006 election, the Marijuana Party candidate got over 700 votes. If those votes are up for grabs, it could make the difference in a tight race. Who'd a thought?
08 09 22 Close Observer
I lived in Nunavut for several years and was an official agent (for the NDP) during one federal campaign. Voting in Nunavut has a highly regional component. The Liberal candidate is from Baffin, the most populous area, while the Conservative comes from a small community in Keewatin. This will be a decisive factor.
08 09 21 NJam101
To W Knapp: How do you know that people in the North vote more for the local candidate than the local party?? Oh yeah, we ALL in Canada vote for the ‘local’ candidate. Using the term ‘local’ for Nunavut is kind of funny. But why do people seem to think people focus more on the candidate rather than the party in large area ridings? Often the candidate is very unknown when he/she could be living 2000km or more from the voter in Nunavut. Many of the voters judge by what they see on television and the national campaign play a huge roll. It must because Harper himself campaigned in Iqaluit.
Nunavut is very hard to predict. I'm betting the difference will be only a couple hundred votes. It will be either Conservative or Liberal for sure. It remains to be seen if the Harper visit will really make any difference.
08 09 20 John
Canadian male's comments notwithstanding, the Conservatives think they can get something up in Arctic Canada. Otherwise Harper wouldn't have taken a trip up north this weekend. Throw in the fact the Conservatives have put a lot of work into promoting Canadian sovereignty in the arctic for a good chunk of their time in office.
While I'm not going to go out on a limb and say the Conservatives will win this riding (or either of the other two), I won't rule out their picking up a seat near the arctic circle either.
08 09 15 Canadian Male
Conservatives are silly to think they can buy this vote, its not for sale, the Inuit are used to many of these promises never materializing, so they place little faith in seeing Harper or Layton's face around town.
Kirt Ejesiak is a strong Liberal candidate, a bright educated young Inuit man who connects with the traditional people and engages contemporary and non-Inuit Canadians, especially in Iqualit.
08 09 13 W Knapp
in the North people vote more for the local candidate than for the party. I have the impression that Leona Aglukkaq of the Conservatives is well known, liked & respected. She seems to be quite competent as well.
She seems to be head and shoulders over the others. Therefore the Conservatives will most likely win this riding.
08 09 12 The Dude Abides
With the incumbent chosing not to run again, the Tories' focus on the north, and an opportunity to have a member at the cabinet table will probably swing this to the Conservative tally.
08 09 12 Gone Fishing
I think that old arguments that this is always a Liberal riding fade with the current prime minister. Considering three seats exist in the Arctic the Prime Minister has spent a lot of time here before the election and has put a stamp on the arctic as a priority.
Eric Nielson managed to design a number of Conservative election victories in neighbouring riding.
The last vote the Conservatives were also quite close. True they trailed by 10% but that means only 1000 votes in this sparsely populated riding. I think the attention on the arctic issues gets some traction and the Liberal's continued meltdown doesn't hurt the blue cause. I wouldn't even be surprised if Harper visits here before it is all over and that hasn't happened in years.
08 09 11 Bugs Bunny
Too close to call. Liberal or NDP contest. Tories don't do that great in most northern ridings. The NDP has a good candidate, but the Liberals have history and their brand.
08 09 11
Nunavut will go Conservative.
Consider these factors:
-- Leona Aglukkaq, provincial cabinet minister for health, is a star candidate for the CPC and has name recognition (she will probably get a federal cabinet portfolio is elected)
-- CPC finished second here in 2006, 10% behind the incumbent
-- The popular Liberal incumbent has retired
-- Harper has made visits here, announcing arctic sovereignty initiatives and has also reached a land claim deal
-- Conservative surge in Canada at the moment
08 08 23 Pierre from Québec
A ridding with so few electors. Anything is possible here. The NDP this time has a strong candidate with a former CBC journalist. Northern riddings are NDP-friendly as we can see in Northwest territories, Churchill (MB), and Northern Ontario or even Yukon (a NDP stronghold till 2000). NDP pick up but Liberal hold is also a strong chance.
08 07 09 DL
I think the NDP will win here. They have an excellent candidate who was a former CBC reporter based in the area. The northern Premiers have all totally condemned the Liberal Carbon Tax. There is no incumbent and the NDP already holds neighbouring Western Arctic.
08 03 29
I'm going to make a bold prediction here: Conservative win. After the Harper government signed a huge land claim deal with the Northern Inuit, in which they get a new national park, new resource rights, administrative controls and millions of dollars invested, don't be surprised if this riding trends towards the CPC, especially if they run a strong First Nations candidate. The Inuit are even thinking of naming a small island after Harper...
08 02 25
The Conservatives did surprisingly strong here, against a tremendously popular incumbent. If Aglukark runs here again or the CPC nominates another strong candidate the CPC has a good chance in this riding. This is especially true since the incumbent has decided not to run again.
07 10 01 Nick J Boragina
Races in the north are less about party, and more about personality. Which candidate is the most popular. When that is factored in, you start to see more and more rationale for a Liberal win, not because it is popular as a party, but because all of the strong candidates are falling over themselves to win the Liberal Nomination.
07 09 25 Christopher
I'll be interested to see what happens here. There's no Liberal Incumbent and Jack Layton's just finished a trip up north. With such a small population a lot will depend on who runs.
07 09 09
Jack Layton spent much time in the Artic speaking about the issues affecting the Artic communities: climate change, indigenous rigths and artic sovereignty. NDP has been increasing its share election after election, including in Nunavut. With the incumbent Liberal MP not contesting this election, I think there is a strong and credible chance for the next MP of Nunavut belonging to the NDP.
07 06 10
Probably a Liberal hold but i suppose anythings possible with only about 9000 total votes last election.
On another note the Marijuana party got 8% of the votes here.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
This is not as safe a Liberal riding as some think since it has gone NDP and Conservative before, but the Liberals certainly having an edge, so unless the Liberals nominated a lousy candidate and either the Tories or NDP nominate a really strong one, this should stay Liberal, although the large margins Nancy Karetek-Lindell normally took probably will happen in the election after once the Liberal MP has the incumbent advantage, not in the upcoming election.
07 04 01 A.S.
I know this may sound daft, but given the result last time, I wouldn't count the Conservatives out in Nunavut, especially if Aglukark ran again. Granted, such Toryism might have more kinship with Danny Williams than Stephen Harper--but, still...
07 03 31 td
This seat will go Liberal again, it has been that way for a long time and I don't see it changing this time.
07 03 25 C
The real election is Liberal nomination meeting. Rankin Inlet mayor Lorne Kusugak versus Paul Okalik's former chief of staff and Harvard grad Kirt Ejesiak. I don't know who will win that, but it's old guard vs. new guard.

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