Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

New Westminster

Prediction Changed
12:41 PM 17/01/2009

Constituency Profile

Black, Dawn
Green Party
Laird, Matthew
Millar, Carole Dorothy

New Westminster
(100% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 04 23 Laurence Putnam
The Royal City may have changed, many times over in its long and storied history - but the political culture has remained, and it is *solid* NDP. Even during the federal NDP's dark days in the 1990s, this riding would go 25-30% for the NDP. Having a candidate with the name recognition Dawn Black has is just icing on the cake.
09 04 20 MR
There is no doubt this is a traditionally strong NDP riding, nor that Dawn Black is a good candidate with a good organization behind her.
Having said that, the polls do indicate a much closer race than conventional wisdom suggests. Mustel has a good track record in BC elections, the poll sample size was not smaller than normal for BC polling, and I see no reason to acccept the suggestion it was done any less professionally than Mustel's other polls.
New Westminster has a fairly high turn-over of population, and has been ?gentrifying?. While support for the NDP remains inexplicably higher than in many other regions, it is no longer the blue-collar bastion it was.
While Dawn Black has some name recognition, people tend to vote overwhelmingly for the party, not the candidate. This remains a long-shot for the BC Liberals, but given the polling numbers released to date, and the lacklustre campaign by the NDP so far, it is not out of reach by any means.
09 04 18
Dawn Black is cabinet material should the BC NDP form government, and a potential leadership contender if Carole James fails to win this election. She will romp to victory in this traditional NDP riding.
09 04 17 MBD
With the NDP slide in the polls, this may be closer than many think. Dawn Black has had to fend off accusations that her jump to provincial politics is unnecessary and costly for Canadian taxpayers.
People knew about Puchmayr's ill health for a long time. I bet Black ran in the Federal election knowing full well this ?surprise opportunity? could be just a few months away.
I was visiting my parents in New West today, and they already received a slick Liberal flyer in their mailbox. That wouldn't happen if the Liberals saw New West as a lost cause. I wonder when they'll finally see a Black flyer.
I still have to call this for Black because this is hardcore NDP territory, but I have to wonder how many traditional NDPers will vote Green or just sit this one out. Some of them are getting sick of Dawn Black.
09 04 15 political watcher
liberal pick-up get real for one that poll you refer to isn't very big 435 people give or take a bit. not very scientific and it is 28 days from the only poll that counts (the ballot box) I use to live in New West (96 BC election) it is traditionally NDP cause it is a union town both public and private unions. It took the fluke of 2001. the fact that Dawn Black who has ample political experience and experience in running successful campaigns and New West Minister is a slam dunk for the NDP as much as West Van-Capilano is a slam dunk is for the liberals. Dawn Black will have an army of volunteers and her party is very good getting their supporters out to the polls
09 04 14 MR
The Mustel poll released today (April 14) shows a 17% lead by the BC Liberals province-wide and an 18% lead in metro Vancouver.
As noted earlier, the history of the vote in New Westminster indicates the NDP tend to draw 9% more in New West than they do provincially and the BC Liberals 8% less.
With a 17% gap provincially that would indicate the parties are tied in New Westminster, with the momentum running towards the BC Liberals.
09 04 04 Boann
The Liberal Candidate has no political history, hence someone to prop up the Liberal party line. New Westminster voters won't swallow Campbell's rhetoric, especially from an untried & unknown candidate. I think they'll vote for Dawn Black who has a proven track record of working hard for & speaking out on behalf of her constituents
09 03 08 Globe and Mail
Black to leave federal NDP to seek provincial seat in B.C.
March 7, 2009 at 1:45 PM EDT
VICTORIA ? A high-profile New Democratic Party MP is stepping down to seek a seat in the May 12 B.C. election, giving the minority Conservative government a chance to win back a swing riding.
Dawn Black, the NDP's defence critic, will resign her federal seat in New Westminster-Coquitlam shortly, she said. She is expected to run uncontested for the NDP nomination in the provincial riding of New Westminster.
Ms. Black's decision is to be formally announced today by B.C. NDP Leader Carole James at the party's provincial council meeting.
New Westminster is a safe seat for the B.C. New Democrats. It is currently held by MLA Chuck Puchmayr, who is not running again. Mr. Puchmayr is recovering from a liver transplant after recently being diagnosed with cancer.
Ms. Black said she was approached by New Democratic MLA Mike Farnworth, and later, Ms. James, to run provincially.
?I'll miss my federal colleagues, but I feel I can make a strong contribution to Carole James's team, and there is a possibility of forming a government under premier James,? she said.
Last fall, Ms. Black won the federal seat by just three percentage points over Conservative candidate Yonah Martin.
She said that before she resigns as an MP she will finish work on drafting a private member's bill to restrict the use of civilian armoured vehicles. The issue is related to gang violence, currently one of the hot topics in Metro Vancouver.
She informed party leader Jack Layton a couple of weeks ago, she said.
The Conservative government holds 143 of 308 seats in Parliament.
The NDP won 37 seats last October, making it the smallest of the three opposition parties.
09 02 10 Predictian
The news that MP Dawn Black is considering moving over to run in New West provincially means that this safe NDP seat is staying NDP.
09 01 23 MP
It is sad to hear about Chuck Puchmayr. I'm sure everyone of every political stripe wishes him a full recovery.
The BC Liberals will nominate their candidate for this riding on February 3.
Analysis of the last four elections indicates the NDP vote in this constituency averages around 9% higher than their overall vote in the province. The Green vote has been marginally higher than province-wide, and the BC Liberal/Social Credit vote, although more prone to being split when right-wing/centrist alternatives are present, runs around 8% less than the party generally draws province-wide. (In 1996 the BC Libeal vote was only 3.3% lower than their provincial average - thanks to a strong local candidate and, possibly,some of the unusual vote-splitting resulting from BC Reform and the PDA being present on the ballot and taking about 11% of the vote between them).
Given the traditional vote split, however, the gap between the NDP and BC Liberals has to be a bit larger than that shown by the most recent Mustel poll for this to be in the BC Liberal camp safely. However, based on those numbers, it is going to be competitive - especially in the absence of an incumbent.
09 01 18 New West Reality
With today's announcement of Chuck Puchmayr not running again, this riding is now wide open, as there does not appear to be any ?heir apparent? from either side of the spectrum in New West. Of course, with the BCNDP, the choice of nominees is highly restricted under the party's equity mandate, namely that an incumbent riding shall be solely reserved for female candidates only. This could seriously work against the BCNDP people in New West. Chuck was a solid MLA and its truly sad that his health has failed him. Best wishes to him and his family.
09 01 14 VanToria
Puchmayr got 51% of the vote in 2005 and took down a cabinet minister (Joyce Murray now a federal Liberal). The issues around Royal Columbian Hospital and the demolition of Mt. St. Mary's will keep the Libs out. Plus, Puchmayr as Labour critic is quite popular with local Labour Councils. He will get their support and more importantly... volunteers. Easy hold.

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