Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009


Prediction Changed
3:09 PM 26/04/2009

Constituency Profile

Cadieux, Stephanie
Lawrance, Debbie
Green Party
Weisenberger, Murray

BRAR, Jagrup
Surrey-Panorama Ridge
(Approx. 70% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

(Approx. 25% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

HOGG, Gordon
Surrey-White Rock
(Approx. 5% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 04 20 ArmchairPundit
Check the polls from 2005 again.
This one will be a slam dunk for Cadieux, as the NDP portion of the old riding of Panorama Ridge was lopped off and jammed into neighboring Fleetwood. It's why incumbent Jagrup Brar jumped to Fleetwood instead of facing down certain defeat in the newly created riding of Panorama.
09 03 27 rhudson
I'm not sure how this riding is too close to call. All of the strong BC Liberal panorama polls along with strongly BC Liberal crescent beach make this riding a pretty secure victory for star candidate Stephanie Cadeaux. A week NDP candidate with weaker demographics make this riding all but lost, they're better off to focus on Tynehead then Panorama.
09 01 18 BJ
Incumbent New Democrat Jagrup Brar's riding. But new riding boundaries have changed the demographics considerably. Half of the heavy NDP polls north of 64th Ave. are now gone to NDP held Surrey Newton. Furthermore, the southern riding boundary has been extended deep into conservative South Surrey to 24th Ave. With 2005 votes transposed onto this riding, the Liberals would have won by a ~1,400 vote margin. Since 2005, considerable development has also occured in this part of South Surrey. That's why NDP MLA has decided to abandon the riding for Surrey-Fleetwood. Should be a relatively easy Liberal win.

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