|
Constituency Profile
Candidates:
|
|
Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.
|
|
|
| 09 03 02 |
BJ 70.70.147.85 |
A good chunk of this riding is situate east of Hwy 1 and is known as Fraserview Heights, a very upper middle-class single-family area that voted heavily Liberal in 2005. Considerable additional dwellings have been constructed here since 2005. With redistribution, the Liberals would have won this seat in 2005 by a 48.7% to 41.6%, a 7% margin when the Liberals had an overall provincial winning margin of 4%. Today, Mustel places that Liberal winning margin up at 16%. |
| 09 02 16 |
TAN 99.231.74.215 |
A quick little bit of back-of-the-envelope math suggests that redistribution ought to narrow the margin of BCLib victory from 2500 to ~450 votes. Now, that's assuming completely homogeneous margins of victory in each poll in the various predecessor ridings, which is a huge cheat given Surrey's political geography. I haven't had a chance to see numbers from anyone who's actually crunched the detailed numbers to see if this guesstimate is in the ballpark. With that in mind, I think we can (somewhat generously) describe this seat as in play. If current provincewide polling numbers hold and the NDP don't muster a good ground game, Hayer is back. If there is a change of government, though, this might be one of the seats that causes it. |
|
|