Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2011

Miramichi


Prediction Changed
2011-04-28 09:16:00
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Colford, Patrick

Mazerolle, Ronald

O'Neill Gordon, Tilly

Vickers, Keith

Incumbent:
Tilly O'Neill-Gordon

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • acadie-bathurst (20/227 Polls)
  • madawaska-restigouche (13/182 Polls)
  • miramichi (135/147 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 22 rabbit
    99.236.242.239
    im assuming liberals vote was down- many liberals not show up last election and liberals not require much of a swing to get seat back from Tories assuming ndp not gain votes- i think i remember ndp did well and took seat in 1997 and if ndp gains then it will be really close then may be too close to call
    11 04 21 JaneyCanuck
    142.166.143.75
    This one is too close to call.
    When Tillie Gordon, who has been a good MP, was asked to run by the Conservatives - and she has been a longtime partty organizer (esp of women's events, ir Prov PC Women Pres and wife of an MLA in the Hatfield era) , her school Principal was concerned he would loose her. She assured him he need not woprry. ‘This’, she tolkd him, ‘is a Liberal riding.’
    But Tillie is a hard worker and one can never count her out. Still, there is somewhat of a Liberal tradition here (as she noted) but this is a riding that also likes to be on the govt side, ie the winning side. If the Miramichers as they are known (and I say that with some relatives from here) perceive they may obtain something from the gopvt, they will vote for the govt side.
    That said, this is not a typical Harper constituency - lots of Irish Catholics, at least in tradition - home of the large Irish Festival - and many of them will vote Liberal no matter what, even if they like Tillie. Also, the area has been hit hard by the economic downturn, esp the forestry sector and the controversial long gun registry is located here - the one the Conservatives wnat to close. The one that has created JOBS!
    There is also those polls curiously (can we say gerrymandered) in the Belledune/Jacquet River which really belong in Restigouche and are not even contiguous with the riding bondaries, a situation not seen happily by those who live there - they want to be art of Restigouche! These are also traditionally Liberal polls.
    I would not bet on either candidate just yet and given the Liberals 38% acc to the most recent Ipsos Reid poll in Atlantic Canada - most of it outside NB - this is a toss up. The advantage goes to Tillie as the incumbent but she cannot count on it.
    11 04 20 Teddy Boragina
    198.96.35.248
    Based on the math, this riding looks seat to return Liberal.
    11 04 20 R.O.
    99.246.102.2
    I'd say Tilly Gordon's has a better chance of holding seat than liberals do at taking it back. liberals clearly though seats lost in 08 come running back but most of them are looking like holds for other parties or remain close races. They also have a new candidate here after Charles Hubbard decided to retire so that works against them as usually an incumbent advantage out east. i don't disagree the area has historically had employment issues but those existed in 08 and conservatives won the riding. voters also view conservatives as better to manage economy than liberals and conservatives have invested alot of money into this riding. its not the conservatives safest seat out east but i'd be surprised if they do not hold it on may 2. and polls for east coast have high margin of error and less than reliable , last election most weren't predicting great things for tories out east and had liberals ahead alot of time yet they picked up 5 new seats on election night.
    11 04 07
    142.166.4.1
    This riding has high unemployment, and the last thing they need is to lose the Firearms centre. Yes they're getting a new payroll processing centre, but let's face it: they need to keep the firearms centre. Therefore, the Liberals will take Miramichi if they channel through the anger of the population.
    11 04 01 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    This was certainly an upset in 2008 when the Tories took down a 15 year incumbent in a traditional Liberal riding, never mind Charles Hubbard was one of the more right leaning Liberals. My guess is the carbon tax played a big role due to its unpopularity here. However, with the Tories holding the incumbent advantage it is their's to lose. The Liberals have a better chance of winning this than Fredericton, but I think their chances in Saint John are better than here. Otherwise the Tories win 4 or fewer seats in New Brunswick, this goes Liberal. They win 5 or more seats in New Brunswick, this stays Tory.
    11 04 01 Marco Ricci
    72.138.2.247
    This riding was profiled on CBC this week. People are struggling here because it has one of the highest unemployment rates in the country - much higher than the Canadian average.
    http://www.cbc.ca/connect/2011/03/connect-the-vote-from-miramichi-nb.html
    Will unemployment and dissatisfaction cause more people here to vote against the incumbent Conservative MP and for the Liberals? It probably would have helped if the Liberals had a higher-profile candidate running here, as someone below said. The question is whether the new Liberal candidate is able to connect with voters and pull in the NDP vote that split the riding in 2008.
    11 01 28 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    204.187.16.140
    Some may have thought that Tilly was a ‘throw-a-way’ candidate in '08. She pulled through (not entirely a surprise in our opinion) and has now brought some badly needed jobs to the riding. She may not be so easy to unseat.
    09 09 22 Phoenix
    99.251.230.35
    In a surprising development, John McKay, former Liberal MLA and former mayor of Miramichi, has withdrawn from the Liberal nomination race, citing fundraising difficulties. Given that he was arguably the most high-profile candidate seeking the Liberal nomination here, the fact that his campaign was having financial issues doesn't bode particularly well for whomever the eventual nominee will be. I'd still list Miramichi as too close to call, given past trends, but this riding could be the latest in a line rural ex-Liberal fortresses to start trending Conservative. Perhaps Miramichi is the Glengarry-Prescott-Russell of Atlantic Canada?
    Also, a correction to my previous post: I erroneously stated that Hubbard was the only NB incumbent to be defeated in the last election; in fact, Paul Zed of Saint John was also defeated. My bad.
    09 09 12 A.S.
    99.232.162.133
    Of course, the ultimate Liberal to take back Miramichi would be he who's been rumoured as a national party leader over and again through the years: hometown boy Frank McKenna. Even in McKenna's absence, Miramichi's present representation feels like a one-time fluke--then again, so-called one-time Tory flukes elsewhere, from Essex to suburban Quebec City, have endured as two- or three-timers...
    09 09 10 Phoenix
    99.251.230.35
    This should be an interesting race. On one hand, the Miramichi riding, historically, has a strong Liberal tilt, voting against them for only the second time since WWII in the last election. Local Liberals are hoping that the pendulum will naturally swing back to them this time around, and four formidable candidates are seeking the Liberal nomination. On the other hand, Charles Hubbard was a more formidable candidate than any of them, and yet he was defeated by the Conservatives' last-minute replacement candidate in 2008(Tilly O'Neill-Gordon was nominated when the orignally-nominated candidate, whose name escapes me, withdrew just prior to the election being called).
    Hubbard's years of experience and wealth of personal popularity would seemingly be more than ample for a Liberal to be re-elected in an Atlantic Canadian riding with a near-spotless record of voting Liberal; yet Hubbard holds the dubious distinction of being the only New Brunswick incumbent MP to be defeated in the last election.
    We'll have to wait and see how the national numbers start shaping up before calling this one, but at this point I'd give the edge to Gordon. The Conservatives are more popular in NB than in other parts of Atlantic Canada, and the Conservatives have upticked in the polls slightly in the wake of all the recent election talk from the Liberals. However, if the Liberals appear to be on the verge of forming the government in the final days of the campaign, you can bet that one of their MPs will be the Liberal member from Miramichi.
    09 08 29 R.O.
    209.91.149.122
    This was once a liberal stronghold minus 84 election but is now held by the conservatives and mp Tilly Gordon. The federal conservatives seem to be much more popular in New Brunswick than there provincial cousins at the moment so i think she is going to hold this seat. i honestly do not see the liberals taking this one back at this time and there also looking for a new candidate as there former mp is not in the running again. Ignatieff did visit the riding and made some promises related to the gun registry offices and that the liberals would keep them here and secure the local jobs although those promises may come back to haunt him in some other parts of the country where the miramichi gun registry is more or less hated by rural voters. and considering the voters here allready know about the conservatives position on the registry yet still elected a cpc mp i'm not sure that be enough to win back the riding
    09 08 27 wyatt
    24.235.142.160
    Tories will hold here. Turnout was down, the Tory total increased, even with a new candidate running for them. Look for Tilly to open her lead a bit.
    11 04 28 MiramichiGirl
    142.166.179.9
    I respectfully disagree with your prediction. Tilly has been having a very hard time convincing people that she will be able to deliver on the so-called promised 550 jobs with the National Pay Centre. Also, she has managed to upset the local PSAC members. They presented her with a petition that had 1100 names on it asking her to keep the gun registry in the Miramichi as it put their 250 jobs on the chopping block should it be eliminated. They asked her to present it to Parliament and she refused. They have now launched an ‘Anybody but Tilly’ campaign. Keith Vickers, the Liberal candidate is in a very strong position to win this seat.



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