10 03 24	MV 192.75.139.250
This is a very particular riding which had somewhat changed a lot since 2004. This is TCTC and this with even through four parties could have a chance at this riding. The main thing however is that the Bloc is only winning by default, with having a relative 30% base among the nationalist base, with the federalist vote (which had voted traditionally Liberal even in Québec's PC sweep in 1988) that is split three-way. This is not a nationalist region at any cost and it is generally centrist. However, since Mark Assad retirement, the incumbency effect is not a factor here. So basically, this could go four way: -If the NDP had another candidate than Boivin, this could go Liberal as the Liberal candidate in the 2008 election was not very well known. However, the current candidate is not very known in the riding. -The NDP have somewhat of a chance especially with Boivin, but I clearly doubt it if the party don't have a better position in the polls. The riding is not very left-wing in nature. -Nadeau could squeeze again with about 30-35% of the vote. However, he is not very liked with his constituents. -If the Conservatives have a good candidate and with good numbers provincially, they can surely win this riding as the bandwagon effect.
	10 01 18	binriso 156.34.221.169
If anything, last time proved that the NDP can potentially win here, where they never had anything close to as high to 27% before. Quebecers who have historically been notorious for voting monolithically Liberal (if they’re federalist) or BQ (if they’re sovereigntist) now have a viable third option here, which hasnt really occurred in this riding before other than maybe 1997 with the PC 2nd place above the BQs 3rd. The NDP could take some nationalist but left/centre left wing voters from the BQ as well as federalists from the Liberals and squeak out a win here and get a toehold outside Montreal.
	10 01 15	pierre 24.202.238.232
Mckinnon will lose this seat due to his patronizing personality and feeling that political life owes him a living. A terrible recruit for the PLC. Bloc holds this seat. And to the person who said he is the 'most effortlessly bilingual figure in public life', get your head examined.
	09 10 08	Nick J Boragina 99.234.48.43
Bear and Ape deserve a good response: As many of you know, I run my own projection blog, where I use a mathematical formula that I have great faith in to project each and every riding. At current polling levels, I have these results for this riding: Lib - 30.5% Bloc - 29.6% NDP - 22.7% CPC - 13.5% Grn - 3.8% However, that is at current polling results. 2 points province wide for the Tories could well translate to more than 2 points in this riding, and the Tories can move 2 points within minutes if the right polls are released in the right order. My point was less that the Tories are going to win, and more that they cannot be ruled out. Even at a current 13.5% in the riding, we just don't know the dynamics of the coming election, whenever it is. For all we know, Harper could become 'cool' in Quebec again, if so, there's a good chance that he'll make a drive for the riding. Etc etc etc. There are too many unknowns to declare that someone can, or cannot win just yet. The only party I'm certain cannot win at this time is the Green Party.
	09 10 02	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 74.13.73.190
Nick: Normally we have the upmost respect for your predictions as they are often well thought out, but this one...well it gave us some pause. Last poll we saw put the Torys at 16% in Quebec, not exactly seat-growing numbers. Another thing we'd like to point out is that parties who seem to be doing well in Quebec prior to an election almost always seem to crash and burn during the election. If we've said this once, we said it a hundred times; Quebec voters are fickle. It's this fickleness which has us conclude that the riding is virtually unpredictable until a much closer date to e-day. If compelled to make a prediction we'd say BQ keep due to Federalist vote splitting. If Boivin was out of the picture we'd say it'd return to the Liberal fold. None the less, too much going on to make an honest call.
	09 09 27	Nick J Boragina 198.96.35.219
Will Gatineau be won by the Tories? Perhaps. If Harper keeps trending up (he seems to gain one or two points in the polls per week!) then it will be. Regardless, this riding will be a 4-way race yet again, and when things get that close, any one of the parties can eek out a victory; Tory, Bloc, NDP, or Liberal.
	09 09 24	Pat 137.122.115.78
Fran?oise Boivin devrait l'emporter cette fois-ci dans Gatineau. Le support du NPD au Qu?bec se maintient et progresse m?me l?g?rement gr?ce ? la visibilit? de Mulcair. Au niveau local, de nombreux f?d?ralistes n'ont pas cru aux chances de Boivin sous la banni?re du NPD de d?faire le Bloc lors de la derni?re ?lection et ont donc vot? lib?ral. Boivin ayant termin? deuxi?me, elle sera per?u cette fois-ci comme l'alternative au Bloc et l'exode du vote lib?ral vers le NPD sera significatif. Le candidat lib?ral est peut-?tre une vedette aux yeux de l'entourage d'Ignatieff mais localement, il est largement inconnu contrairement ? Boivin qui est tr?s populaire dans la communaut?. Gain pour le NPD
	09 09 22	Paul Tremblay 67.159.44.138
Well I was the first one to predict a Bloc win here last year, and it seems like I will again be the first one to predict a Bloc win in Gatineau this time. The problem with all those predictions for Francoise Boivin is this : where can she pick up more votes ? The average federalist voter in Quebec tends to be more conservative than the provincial average. This does not mean that the average federalist voter is anywhere near as right-wing as, say, the average rural Alberta voter, but it still does mean that the average federalist voter does not hold the NDP in high regard. There seemed to be a misconception among voters in 2008 that the Bloc had no chance whatsoever to win again in Gatineau. I would suggest that about two-thirds of the increase in the NDP vote from 2006 to 2008 came from people who voted for the Bloc in 2006 and thought they *had* to vote for the NDP in order to reject the Liberal Party. The vote patterns in Outremont where most new NDP votes come directly from the Bloc would seem to confirm this hypothesis. Now that the Bloc has won Gatineau again in 2008, I fail to see any reason why those voters would feel any need to vote strategically for the NDP this time. Therefore the growth potential for Francoise Boivin is extremely limited, and she could actually lose votes compared to 2008. This being said, Francoise Boivin remains strong enough as a candidate that one can't honestly say that there is one single clear federalist alternative to the Bloc in Gatineau. This means vote splitting will happen (again) and in such circumstances it is always extremely difficult (read, almost impossible) for any federalist candidate to win, and this means a Bloc win.
	09 09 12	PRJ 24.200.134.110
Liberal riding. And why does everyone assume MacKinnon is an anglophone? He's probably the most effortlessly bilingual person in public life. As for ?outsider?, he has lived and raised a family in the riding for many years.
	09 09 11	Marco Ricci 72.138.2.68
KT is right that the NDP will focus a lot of resources here, but we have to remember that the NDP did that last year, and still came up short. Last year the NDP made this riding its biggest priority in Quebec after Outremont. Layton announced his campaign here on the first day of the election and made many visits to the riding - other leaders like Ed Broadbent and Alexa McDonough also appeared, as well as Thomas Mulcair. Boivin also got a lot of coverage in the Ottawa-Gatineau media. Despite all of the above, she still came short and so some of the other posters below who said she may have had her best chance could be right. It is hard to know exactly what will happen here because this is not really a BQ seat as the large majority of voters here vote for federalist parties, but the vote has gotten split. There has also been some debate about whether Steven McKinnon being an Anglophone will have an effect in a Francophone riding. We will have to see if that is a factor. I think it depends on how strong the McKinnon campaign is vs. the Boivin campaign, and whether the Liberals continue to poll higher in Quebec this year than last and what the NDP numbers also are. What's interesting is that there has not yet been a BQ prediction here this year.
	09 09 10	GL 74.56.237.132
I think this is an easy one. Nadeau has not done a great job for his riding so I think he will not be re-elected. Fran?oise Boivin being a very popular figure in the riding and that gives her a big advantage on her liberal opponent who is seen as an outsider, someone who as not been involved in the community. Based on personality, I think Gatineau will soon be represented by Boivin and the NDP.
	09 09 10	odude22 173.32.205.82
So I did a little research on this riding and it turns out that there has been an extremely strong Liberal presence here since 1896! Two words. LIBERAL LANDSLIDE.
	09 09 10	KT 74.12.180.19
Francoise Boivin is now President of the Quebec NDP. It strains credibility to think that the NDP would not throw every resource they had toward getting their Quebec President elected. Given that Thomas Mulcair has proven he can hold his seat in a general election and given that the Liberal Party has proven no match for the separatists in Gatineau since Boivin left there is no doubt in my mind that Francoise Boiven's personal strength and the NDP's new relevance in Quebec will combine to make this seat an NDP gain.
	09 09 09	MV 137.122.79.188
Clearly, this one will go Liberal, as the NDP vote was basically a vote for Boivin and the Bloc only won with 29% due to vote splitting between four parties.
	09 09 07	PRJ 24.200.134.110
The math is simple. Liberal riding since Confederation, with the exceptions of 1984 and '06 and '08. Bloc incumbent with lowest popular vote in Canada. Perfect federalist vote split last time, allowing Bloc to win. This time: star candidate in MacKinnon, Boivin's fourth election (she's 1-2), and no Conservative presence make this a very good bet for the Liberals. They only have 1500 votes to make up.
	09 09 04	PY 76.66.120.252
I agree with Smok...she's had her chances to take the seat, but now that Boivin's under the NDP banner and has lost for the second consecutive election, it'll be a much steeper hill for her to climb. It could be even worse for her if Thomas Mulcair ends up having his hands tied in Outremont and she's subsequently forced to go it alone. Also consider that the Liberals are intent on re-taking the riding, as the momentum seems to be on their side now. Steve MacKinnon for the win.
	09 09 02	Full name 128.214.150.224
Given that the conservative support in Quebec has collapsed irretrievably since the last election there is no way they don't lose some of their seats. This riding, cabinet minister or not, at only 32% last time with the second place in the riding liberals up across quebec is obviously one of them. Clear liberal gain. watch for the weeping felled giant interview early on election night.
	09 08 31	thegoalie 24.202.63.149
The Liberals could take back the riding if it wasn't for Françoise Boivin. Considering the fact that she scored strong last time, that the Bloc support was the weakest in the entire province, expect again more traditional Liberal votes going Boivin's way. It'll be close.
	09 08 26	DL 173.32.33.208
I think Francoise Boivin wins it this time for the NDP. She came quite a close second last time when she had to fght the perception that the NDP was not a serious player. Now she has proven that she can win as a New Democrat. Polls show the NDP on an upswing in Quebec with the latest CROP poll pegging NDP support in Quebec at 18% (compared to 12% in the last election) and BQ support is down. The Liberals seem poised to provide Boivin with an added gift by nominating Steve McKinnon as their candidate. The riding is 94% francophone and the Liberals think they can win with an anglo from PEI who speaks passable French??? But hey, he has some high fallutin' title with the Liberal Party. I guess the Libs think that makes him some sort of start in the eyes f the general public.
	09 08 26	Smok Wawelski 69.159.78.163
Observer, I would think that the NDP's best chance was last time. The Dippers have been dipping ever since the failed alliance with the Bloc and Libs. I would say that Boivin, now twice defeated is pretty much done like dinner. The only question being, will she keep enough votes to prevent the Liberal candidate from taking back this traditional Grit seat?
	09 08 24	Observer 89.180.69.237
Françoise Boivin came extremely close last time. I guess many Liberal supporters will support the NDP in order to prevent another BQ win. The federal vote will vote in a bloc for the NDP and Françoise Boivin.