Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Beaches-East York

Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 22:10:00

Constituency Profile


Burrows, Bill

Cameron, Aaron

Carter, Roger

Kellway, Matthew

Minna, Maria

Hon. Maria Minna

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • beaches-east-york (194/211 Polls)
  • don-valley-east (4/194 Polls)
  • scarborough-southwest (4/202 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 05 01 B Petrie
    It is time to get off the fence. The election is a debacle for the Liberals. This is going NDP.
    11 05 01 JR Toronto
    Drove through the riding earlier today; based on signs it should be an NDP pickup.
    11 05 01 Marco Ricci
    It's hard to know what will happen here now. This riding went from being solidly Minna at the start of the campaign with the NDP having no chance to the point where the NDP do now have a chance. However, one point of caution is that in 2008 there were many predictions here that Minna would be defeated and there were even polls published the week before the vote showing she and Gerard Kennedy would both lose and they both got elected - Minna with a larger margin than in 2006. It will be helpful to look at the final polls out tomorrow for Ontario to see if the NDP is still doing well in Ontario, or whether the Liberals are recovering. Today's Nanos poll showed a slight decline for the NDP and a slight rise for the Liberals. If that happens again tomorrow, the Liberals may not lose as many votes as they were going to a few days ago.
    11 04 30 SouthpawPundit
    I'd be very pleasantly surprised if the NDP can take this riding from Minna. If it were not for the NDP getting some ridiculously good poll results in Ontario lately (Angus-Reid has the NDP 13 points about the Liberals. Ipsos-Reid has them at 1, which may be more likely), this would be an easy hold for the Liberals, but at this point, I'm not even convinced David McGuinty is safe in Ottawa-South.
    11 04 29 Not Non-Partisan
    My riding. In the all-important central part, Kingston Road to Danforth, Kellway is way ahead. That should mean curtains for Maria.
    11 04 29 Dave
    TCTC. The NDP candidate, a relative unknown, came on stronger than expected at the beginning and has since been lifted by his party's and his Leader's good fortunes. The CPC ran decent candidates here in 2006 and 2008 (nothing against the guy they ran in 2004) and they seem to be doing so again with Burrows. If the CPC would ever begin their campaigns in this riding before the writ dropped they might get somewhere. Minna has an entrenched presence but I am not sure she can save herself from the Liberal train wreck that is coming.
    11 04 29 dkay
    sorry ndp.. i think maria is just too popular... if marilyn couldnt take it then i just dont see it this time even with a surge.. when maria retires though look out.. ndp riding will return ndp but for now the liberals hold it
    11 04 29 jeff316
    To win here, the NDP would need a particularly compelling candidate, the right demographics and excellent Ontario poll numbers - none of which they have. The gentrification that is going on here is not the type that leans NDP. They will see a boost from the Jack effect but Maria will carry. Beaches East-York is a little too stretched, demographically - to much upper-upper-middle incomes (don't vote NDP) and lower-lower-middle incomes (don't vote NDP) - for the NDP to win.
    11 04 28 myNDP2senseworth
    This riding is going to the NDP.
    I've fought a lot of elections in the past few years, and I was going to sit this one out.
    But all the excitement has got me active and I volunteered some time today, and I think there are others like me.
    Many folks dropped by the NDP office and signed up to help out, or helped on the phones, and donations are still coming in, and teams are going out and canvassing, and 1500 signs have already gone out!
    In contrast to that is the Liberal office, that looks drab and uninspired and not many people are coming or going.
    (funny that the Liberal and NDP offices are on the same block)
    And, the former Liberal voters I spoke with are very soft with their Liberal support. They now know that the NDP can win in the Beaches, and that strategic voting is not a one way street.
    Others voters I spoke with, like Jack's positive message, and are ready to try something new.
    Matt is very friendly and approachable, and is communicating well with his team and there is a good spirit that will carry the Beaches NDP to a victory.
    11 04 26 Bruce Stewart
    Several signs observed suggesting Maria Minna may well be defeated by Matthew Kellway. (1) Kellway has been winning the sign war from day one. (2) The riding has been polled, with a single question ‘who are you planning to vote for’ — with no other qualifying questions it seems likely this was an NDP campaign poll to test strength. (3) Minna's campaign has now started leafleting at the subway stops, including Coxwell Stn., which is right on the riding boundary and thus roughly half the pedestrians would actually be in Toronto-Danforth next door (an expensive move). The local NDP are also demonstrating better access to cash, given the investments made in literature (size, quality, number of drops). Greens and Conservatives have yet to leaflet the house. (4) Street conversations indicate a tiredness with Minna. All in all, add this to the national polls showing NDP strength and I'm expecting a Kellway win on election night.
    11 04 27 Jacob
    This is definitely staying Liberal. With a big name candidate Marilyn Churley, Minna was not beaten. Now with a no-namer in Matthew Kellway, the NDP will be beaten even more even with the rise of popularity federally. Had Churley ran again, it would be close. With Kellway, Minna is safe.
    11 04 26 myNDP2senseworth
    When I moved here last summer, I went to a film at the Fox Theatre on Queen West. The film was being presented by the Beaches - East York NDP, and Matthew Kellway, also in attendance was Michael Prue, the NDP MPP for the area... They were a very nice bunch of people and we all went out for drinks after the film, and I got a glimpse of a very nice group of people who I'm sure are working together real hard to win this riding. And from my walks around the riding I've been seeing that work in the form of lots of NDP signs.
    11 04 26 M.L.
    Given the recent polls, it is quite possible that the NDP takes back Parkdale-High Park and perhaps takes Davenport by a nail. However, Minna has time after time resisted strong NDP campaigns and star candidates. In fairness, the NDP has never polled this high and never had such a well received campaign. One thing the NDP could have going for them is a stronger Conservative campaign, which could eat away at some Minna support south of Kingston Rd. in the wealthier pockets of the riding. Yet Minna has shown resilience time after time in fending off the dippers. Whether or not she can do it again with the highest NDP polls in decades is another thing. Fun race to watch.
    11 04 24 WAC
    This riding is too close to call at the moment. The NDP are surging and the Liberals are trending downwards nationally. Although the Ontario polls are relatively close to the results last election, if this trend continues it puts a number of Liberal seats in Toronto in play, include Beaches - East York. Should be interesting to see what happens on election night. One to watch.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    This does have left leaning tilt to it, but Maria Minna is one of the more left leaning Liberals and managed to hold this the last two times when conditions were much less favourable for the Liberals. This will be one of the NDP's better showings, but not enough to capture this.
    11 04 15 MF
    Maria Minna is one of the more progressive Liberals and enjoys much personal popularity. Of course Beaches-East York is winnable for the NDP, as Michael Prue represents the same area provincially. But they're running a pretty low-profile candidate this time, though it will be interesting to see how their vote compares to Marilyn Churley's showings.
    11 04 14 jeff316
    East York used to be an NDP bastion. Prue is still around, but once he goes it's likely to go Liberal, and the Provincial Liberals know it. Again, it's all demographics. The Toronto working class vote tends to go Liberal these days, the immigrant community is generally Liberal, and the gentrification that's creeping along the Danforth is more of the socially-liberal, fiscally-conservative middle class yuppie set. If the NDP is going to make this one a race to watch, the candidate is going to have to come up with something better than ‘this is about effective representation’ like he did in that Global video. If that's all you have to say in your 30 seconds of exposure, that' snot a great rallying cry for change. Yikes.
    11 04 07 Marco Ricci
    According to this Global News profile on the riding, it is considered one to watch, and it says the NDP is picking up some momentum here:
    Although Marilyn Churley was more experienced politically than Matthew Kellway, she may have rubbed people the wrong way in the previous 2 elections. Kellway may be doing a better job of meeting people. However, I still think it will be difficult for the NDP to win here. If Minna was able to win here in 2008 even though the Liberals fell in Ontario, I think it's unlikely she will lose in a year in which the Liberals seem to be improving in Ontario according to the latest polls.
    11 04 06 Bryan Dale
    This riding is always a toss up between the Liberals and NDP. Provincially there's an NDP MPP (Michael Prue) and we have Maria Minna federally. Our local city councillor was tossed last fall in favour of someone new and I have a feeling the anti-incumbent sentiment will take down Minna too. I'll be voting Conservative, but in Beaches-East York we're more likely to see an NDP victory.
    11 04 04 GN
    Maria will win this easily>>>If Marilyn Churley couln't beat her then don't count on any changes here
    11 04 04 Danforthist
    I'm going to stick my neck out here and say this one is going NDP.
    I get the sense the other commenters haven't been IN the riding, because the New Democrats seem to be winning the sign war by a factor of 3 times. Having driven around the city in the last couple of weeks, I think Matthew Kellway actually has more signs than any other candidate in the city! The feeling is completely different than the last couple of elections, where they were always playing catchup.
    There are a number of underlying reasons why the New Democrats can be expected to take Beaches-East York this time. First, the NDP's previous candidate, Marilyn Churley, was not from the riding, which was a big downside. Politics in East York, especially, is local first. Second, the Beaches was one of the few areas in Canada (Trinity-Spadina being one of the others) where Stephane Dion as a personality- and his ‘green shift’ was actually popular. Ignatieff is a much less likeable man from a greenish hippy perspective, and the Liberals have completely jetissoned their environmental agenda. That alone would bring New Democrats within a couple of points of the Liberals. Third, there is a major demographic shift happening in the north part of the riding, with young professionals from downtown - who are accustomed to voting NDP - replacing older, Liberal-voting Italian residents near Danforth.
    Altogether, we really do seem to have the makings of a New Democratic win.
    11 04 02 M. Lunn
    I would say the Liberals have a 90% chance of holding this. Although the NDP is quite competitive here and even holds this provincially, Maria Minna is fairly popular never mind she is one of the more left leaning members of the Liberal caucus which is also a plus in this riding although would probably be a negative in the 905 belt. Unless the polls change significantly in Ontario, I will call this for the Liberals.
    11 04 01 Tony Ducey
    I had this going NDP last time but Minna held on, with Churley not running again I have this riding staying Liberal.
    11 03 29 MH
    In 2006 the NDP's Marilyn Churley came within 2,800 votes of Maria Minna, and in 2008 several contributors to the EPP predicted that this time Churley would surely beat Minna. Instead the gap widened to about 4,100 votes. If the NDP couldn't take this seat in 2008, they're unlikely to do so this year. The Conservatives are not a significant force in Beaches-East York, so a relatively easy win for Minna seems to be in the cards.
    11 03 28 C.A.B.
    Every election this is supposed to be a shoo-in for the NDP, and every election it... isn't. There could be any number of reasons why, but at the end of the day, Maria Minna will be re-elected and the NDP will come in a disappointing second.
    10 02 11 Marco Ricci
    Well we now have some new information for our discussion of this riding. There will be a change in the next election in the NDP candidate - Matthew Kellway will be the candidate instead of Marilyn Churley.
    At this point it also looks like Maria Minna will be staying on as Liberal MP since she has not announced any retirement thus far. As Minna has been able to win this riding in recent elections even despite a collapse in Liberal support in Ontario, she should do so again comfortably.
    Churley was not able to beat Minna in 2008 despite an increase in NDP support in Ontario and a decrease in Liberal support. Thus, perhaps it was time for the NDP to try a new candidate. But while Churley's campaign was not as effective as it should have been, she still had more name recognition as a former MPP in the neighbouring riding compared to new candidate Matthew Kellway.
    Thus, despite some of Churley's failings, it is possible that Minna may be able to win next time by an even larger margin.
    09 12 11 seasaw
    Easy victory for Maria (if she so chooses to run), if not I doubt that the Liberals will have any difficulty attracting a good candidate. This is a relatively moderate centrist riding and with Layton's NDP being perceived as too far to the left and Harper Tories too far to the right, the Liberals could run a fence post here and take all the votes of moderate Tories, NDP and of course the biggest chunk of the vote (their own), that coupled with the fact that Maria's been an excellent MP is enough to keep this riding Liberal, regardless of how the party does elsewhere.
    09 09 14 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    We always thought this one would be competitive and one to watch and it always turned out to be a Liberal hold. In '08 all parties (except the Greens) got fewer votes than in '06. That Liberal-stay-home phenomenon didn't materialize here (or else it would be Churley as MP) and we can't see anything changing this time around. Look for an interesting race once Minna calls it quits. Till then we say it's hers to keep.
    09 09 01 MF
    It's pretty clear that supposed ‘star candidate’ Marilyn Churley is overrated. Unless the NDP has Stephen Lewis run here (highly unlikely) or Michael Prue decides to run for federal office (also unlikely), I expect this to stay Liberal.
    09 08 31 A.S.
    Within the 416, also don't forget Gerard Kennedy (natch) and even Bob Rae and Carolyn Bennett improving on 2006 Liberal share. Marilyn Churley proved even more puzzlingly inept and reactive as a ‘sure-bet’ opponent in 2008 than in 2006, and the result reflects the fact; but that doesn't make the local NDP machine *that* mortally wounded--MPP Prue's all but a cinch to be personally reelected, and he'd have been the stiffer challenge to Minna had he rather than Churley made the jump federally. (Indeed, Team Prue probably led to Churley improving on 2006 in the meat-and-potatoes East York half of the riding--trouble is, the hitherto Churley-friendly urban-yuppie Beaches half followed the carbon tax and swung even more distinctly in the other direction.) Thus, I'd suggest that this should still be treated as a competitive seat rather than as a Minna slam-dunk--heck, in a post-Kennedy-vs-Nash age, Beaches-East York's probably gone back to being *the* top non-Layton/Chow Toronto target for the NDP...
    09 08 26 binriso
    Well theres at least one other Liberal who did much better last election (David McGuinty who actually increased his victory by almost 3x the percentage that Minna did) other than Minna. And then theres Ignatieff. But I agree that it should be a relatively comfortable win for the Liberals.
    09 08 24 Liberally Doubting
    Pretty much every pundit wrote off Minna during the 2008 Liberal meltdown.
    Not only did Minna held her seat, she was the only sitting Ontario Liberal MP that improved her percentage (and significantly improved her winning margin).
    An interesting titbit. Churley 2008 campaign was boasting an über-campaign manager who was tapped to manage Michael Prue’s provincial leadership. That was the same campaign manager who turned Prue from being the frontrunner to coming in dead last on first ballot.
    With both Churley and Prue wounded, it is unlikely for the NDP to offer a credible challenger to Minna this time around.
    09 08 24 Observer
    Even with the Liberal Party debacle, Maria Minna held Beaches-East York for the Liberals and defeated again Marilyn Churley. I predict Maria Minna will retire soon, and that can help the NDP but for now I call this for the Liberals.

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